Shutdown battle is only on pause

Why the shutdown battle is only on pause

Congress has until Feb. 8 to strike another deal or the government closes again. And the parties remain far apart on spending and immigration.

By RACHAEL BADE

Washington will be back on the brink in less than three weeks.

Lawmakers may have pulled themselves out of a debilitating government shutdown Monday, but the fight over immigration and spending that’s ground virtually all congressional business to a halt is far from over. And the fundamentals of the debate haven’t changed at all.

Republican leaders are under increasing pressure from their own members to reach a long-term budget agreement by Feb. 8, when the government next runs out of money. Their defense hawks are desperate to increase defense spending, a key 2018 priority for President Donald Trump. And their members are sick of voting on short-term funding bills that they say cripple the military.

But in order to strike any long-term budget accord, at least nine Senate Democrats are needed for passage. And while Democrats’ strategy of shuttering the government until securing relief for Dreamers blew up in their faces Monday, they can still withhold support for a long-term budget deal to get what they want on immigration.

“We’re here to fight another day,” said Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). “I think we still have an opportunity to win this.”

Democrats may be unlikely to force another shutdown after suffering such an embarrassing defeat. But a top aide to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi confirmed Monday that she will continue to withhold support for a long-term budget agreement until a bipartisan immigration deal is reached. And Republicans and Democrats are still far apart on immigration — meaning Congress may soon be facing another spending stalemate.

“The caps discussion will continue and Democrats will continue to link the two issues,” said the Pelosi aide. “Eventually the defense hawks are going to rise up. Republican leadership will be under immense pressure to get his caps deal done from their own members.”

Some Republican leaders are holding out hope that Democrats’ shutdown defeat will bring them to their knees on a long-term budget accord. House Majority Whip Steve Scalise said Democrats are “not going to be able to play the same game in a few weeks.”

“They’ve tried to bring the two issues [budget and DACA] together, and it didn't work for them,” the Louisiana Republican said. “The responsible thing to do would be to have honest negotiations over a long-term budget deal so we can have certainty for our military.”

Other Republicans, however, are not so confident that Democrats will give up their leverage on the matter.

“I have believed that for months that there is no caps deal without DACA,” said Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-N.J.), referring to strict spending caps that Democrats and Republicans hope to increase for their own defense and domestic priorities. “I think sequentially DACA has to come first.”

To be sure, Democrats have lost some leverage to fix the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program. No longer can they threaten to withhold their votes to keep the government open hoping to scare Republicans into caving to their immigration demands. Republicans called their bluff, and ultimately Democrats caved in what progressive activists have now labeled the “#SchumerSellout.”

What’s more, Schumer put Trump’s border wall on the table in negotiations over the weekend — showing flexibility on the matter that may only embolden Republicans to push harder for concessions.

But there’s a difference from learning a lesson on the shutdown strategy and agreeing to a long-term budget solution without DACA, Democrats say.

In the Senate, GOP leaders acknowledged the difficult negotiating that lies ahead. The No. 3 Senate Republican, John Thune of South Dakota, told reporters Monday afternoon that Congress is probably not going to pass a long-term budget deal in the next three weeks and suggested another stopgap may be needed.

Some House appropriators and some defense hawks agreed.

“I think that they found that this [shutdown] didn’t work, so they may be reluctant to take the same path next time. But I am very concerned about getting defense funded,” said House Armed Services Committee member Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.) “I don’t know what’s changed. We’ll see what 10½ legislative days brings.”

Asked if he was any more confident that Democrats would strike a spending deal without DACA, Rep. Mike Simpson joked sarcastically, “Oh yes! I’m very positive that leadership is going to get on that!”

The Idaho Republican seemed more annoyed with his own leaders’ unwillingness to close the deal than with Democrats holding up the spending agreement for an immigration deal.

“We’re set up for another CR,” he said. “Unless leadership is going to get busy on a budget deal ASAP”

Democrats are betting that pressure from rank-and-file Republicans will force leadership to address DACA, particularly as GOP defense hawks in both chambers have threatened to sink government funding because they’re sick of stopgap bills. And more and more Republicans are increasing the pressure on their leaders to find a solution.

While applauding the GOP’s victory on the shutdown standoff Monday afternoon, conservative House Republican Study Committee Chairman Mark Walker cautioned that the fight is not over because Republicans need a resolution on government funding for the entire year.

“I don’t want to get too excited because we’re still in a CR, which is a tool of the minority,” the North Carolina Republican said. “Maybe [the win] sets a precedent, knowing in the future that we can hold the line and get results. But before we start rolling kegs through Statuary Hall, we’ve got more work to do.”