Orangutan on display..

Long shots and easy money: Handicapping Trump’s State of the Union agenda

From immigration to infrastructure, midterm elections cast a shadow over the president’s proposals.

By LORRAINE WOELLERT

President Donald Trump’s State of the Union agenda has two things working against it: Congress and time. Already this year, Congress has locked horns on a budget deal–twice–and could face a second all-consuming government shutdown in February. And with one eye trained on November elections, Republicans will be reluctant to take tough votes and Democrats won’t be in a mood to compromise.

That threatens every piece of the president’s ambitious pitch Tuesday night. Trump’s agenda isn’t necessarily dead on arrival, but will require some serious triage to keep breathing. Even then, everything could blow up in the flash of a tweet or a turn in the investigation by Robert Mueller. Before making any bets, check out POLITICO’s handicapping.

Infrastructure
Trump claims his $1.5 trillion dollar infrastructure plan has bipartisan appeal, but the federal dollars he wants to spend on roads, bridges, transit, broadband and other big projects is relatively small, about $200 billion over the next decade, and it’s money the White House has said would come from cuts to other programs. Trump also would shave the federal share of some urban projects by more than half, according to a draft of the plan. The administration has been talking up infrastructure for months, but has provided few details for Congress to get started.

Trade
“The era of economic surrender is over,” Trump said. The administration is ready to cut new deals with U.S. trading partners, but the feeling isn’t mutual. Distrust abounds after Trump abandoned the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership shortly after being sworn in and countries are waiting to see the outcome of slow-moving talks to rewrite the 24-year-old NAFTA deal with Canada and Mexico before engaging with the administration. Other countries have spent the past year making regional trade deals with each other – and without the United States.

Immigration
Despite Trump’s concession to give 1.8 million young immigrants–Dreamers–a path to citizenship, his plan gives members of both parties a lot to dislike. Conservative Republicans won’t back any bill that gives undocumented immigrants a break, especially something that looks like amnesty. And Democrats, centrist Republicans, employers and economists say the Trump trade off for protecting Dreamers–a massive reduction in legal immigration–is simply a non-starter.

Deregulation
The White House has already pulled the plug on Obama’s regulatory agenda, slowing or abandoning rules in the pipeline. This year, Trump wants to up the ante by dismantling regulations already etched into law–a much harder lift. Green groups are suing to stop rollbacks of clean air and water rules and Big Tech—think Google and Netflix—is fighting to preserve net neutrality. Democratic attorneys general and a legion of public interest groups are ready to challenge Trump’s next big deregulation push. That said,Trump appointees will continue to make under-the-radar changes at their agencies that could significantly reduce regulatory clutter, including minimizing or eliminating guidance letters that effectively set rules.

Defense spending
Trump wants to boost military spending and modernize the nuclear arsenal, saying “weakness is the surest path to conflict.” The bulk of the defense budget, along with spending on domestic programs, is capped by law through 2021 and congressional leaders are mulling a deal to increase spending on both. But with Republicans and Democrats at odds over whether domestic funding should be increased as much as the military, hopes of avoiding another impasse–and a government shutdown–have dimmed in recent days. Government funding runs out next week.

Drug Prices
“Prices will come down substantially. Watch,” Trump said. Well, maybe. A little. The FDA can approve the sale of more generic medication to chip away at drug costs, and the administration doesn’t need Congress to change import rules or use Medicare to experiment with new ways to pay for drugs. But when it comes to new or branded medications, manufacturers set their price. So far, the administration hasn’t come up with a way to reduce the total cost of drugs to the healthcare system and has backed drug pricing ideas favored by pharmaceutical companies.

Iran
Trump asked Congress to fix “fundamental flaws” in the Iran nuclear agreement, but Washington can’t change the deal on its own and there’s an argument that even an attempt to act unilaterally could unravel the whole thing. But Congress might try to address Iran’s ballistic missile program and sponsorship of terrorism, especially if it can persuade Europe to go along.

Guantanamo Bay
Before his speech, Trump signed an executive order to keep the high-security prison open, reversing an Obama decision made eight years ago. The move will keep 41 prisoners at the site in limbo, including five that have long been cleared for release, according to Amnesty International. Unless Trump changes his mind, the order will seal Guantanamo’s future until another president reverses course.

Judges
Trump has had a great run of judicial appointees, including a Supreme Court justice and a record number of Circuit Court judges. He’ll continue to ride that wave this year, leaving a lasting imprint on the courts.