Senate race won by Democrat

Trump drags down GOP ‘Apprentice’ in special Miami state Senate race won by Democrat

By MARC CAPUTO and MATT DIXON

In a special Florida Senate election where President Donald Trump was a drag, a Republican state House member who was once a contestant on "The Apprentice" lost to Democrat Annette Taddeo, bolstering the minority party's hopes that it can win close elections after an embarrassing November loss statewide.

Though Taddeo's victory over state Rep. Jose Felix Diaz in the Miami-area swing district won't change control of the state Senate — where the GOP holds 24 of 40 seats — it gives the once-dispirited party a badly needed lift heading into the 2018 elections. National Democrats pointed out that Democrats have now flipped a total of seven legislative seats in seven states during "the Trump era."

Still, Democrats have a disastrous recent track record in contested races. Of the five state Senate seats targeted in 2016, they only won one, a gut shot to a party hoping to make real gains in flipping the chamber.

Taddeo's win wasn't just about Trump. She ran against the GOP-led Republican Legislature that she said favors big business over the common Floridian when it comes to tax policy, health care and homeowners insurance — a big issue after Hurricane Irma ripped through Florida earlier this month, but politics 101 played a role.

A team of volunteer canvassers, led by operative Brian Lacey, hit 15,000 homes between Friday and Monday, a huge number that helped overcome a Republican advantage that had hovered around 1,200 ballots throughout the early voting period.

“Dems are energized,” said one operative, reacting to the win via text message. They “are staring to understand how field works in campaign when they may not have the most money or best candidate.”

As expected in a region deeply anti-Trump, however, the president played a big factor.

"There's no doubt, though, that voters felt the deep anxiety coming from President Trump and his divisive policies that are causing much pain," said Christian Ulvert, Taddeo's political advisor. "This election was about a strong candidate who spoke directly to the voters on why we need to shake up Tallahassee. Annette Taddeo spoke to the very heart of why so many feel left behind and left out."

More than $6 million was spent on the off-year special election that saw less than 50,000 total votes cast. Though both parties were fully engaged, the best election night estimates had Republicans pouring roughly $3.5 million into the race against $3 million from Democrats.

The victory comes embedded with lessons for the 2018 midterms that Democrats hope will bring them gains in Tallahassee.

Senate Minority Tallahassee Jeff Clemens, who coordinates Senate Democratic races, said the message they used was not just anti-Trump but also hit on some of the controversial votes Diaz had to make during the 2017 legislative session because of House Speaker Richard Corcoran, who runs the chamber with a notorious libertarian streak.

“He [Diaz] was forced to vote for a lot of thing that voters did not like,” Clemens said. “I think that comes from the autocratic nature of the chamber that he [Corcoran] runs.”

Diaz was one of Corcoran’s closest allies. He gave a heartfelt speech on the House floor when Corcoran was designated speaker, and was tapped by Corcoran to serves as chair of the chamber’s commerce committee, a powerful post that helped him raise lots of campaign contributions.

When Corcoran was asked about his friend being knocked out of the Legislature, he had but two words on Tuesdy night: “tough loss.”

Headed into Election Day, Republicans held a less than 500-vote lead following early voting. It was closer than the party hoped, but with a history of winning decidedly on Election Day, consultants and GOP cheerleaders alike had an overwhelming sense of confidence.

So, what happened?

“Taddeo got lucky. Part Trump. Part Irma. Part Arrogance,” said one dejected GOP operative.

Democrats were demoralized in 2016, losing the presidential race, the state’s U.S. Senate race, and not making the expected gains at the state level. Though there is a long way until 2018, the Taddeo win adds a spark of confidence desperately needed, especially for new Democratic Party Chairman Stephen Bittel, who faced headwinds from party establishment figures when first elected.

“Democrats across the state are energized and mobilizing to flip Florida blue. After nearly 20 years of harmful GOP policies, voters are ready for a better deal,” he said in a statement.

Trump is deeply unpopular in Florida's 40th Senate District, which he lost to Democrat Hillary Clinton by about 16 percentage points in November. Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, however, carried the district by about 3 percentage points and the prior state senator, Republican Frank Artiles, won by about 10 points.

Artiles resigned during the spring lawmaking session after engaging in an alcohol-fueled racial and sexist tirade with a Democratic colleague at a private club near the state Capitol in Tallahassee.

The 40th district is almost evenly divided between registered Republicans, Democrats and independents.

The loss of the GOP-controlled seat, however, won't set the Republican Party too far back in Tallahassee. Aside from control of the state Senate, the GOP still dominates in the Florida House and holds all four statewide elected seats based in Tallahassee. Those four seats are all up for grabs next year, however.

Even as Democrats celebrated the victory, it was a big win for Taddeo, who had been on a losing streak. An effective fundraiser and former chair of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party, Taddeo had lost two prior congressional elections and a county commission race and was a running mate with former Gov. Charlie Crist in his failed effort to unseat Gov. Rick Scott in 2014.

For Republicans looking forward, Trump's lack of popularity looms large.

Scott, who must leave office due to term limits, is considering a bid against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson and, unlike many Republicans, has gone out of his way to embrace Trump and stand by the president. Diaz, however, was more nervous about his association with Trump and deleted a picture he posted on Twitter of Trump and him on Inauguration Day.

"Just ran into the first guy who ever fired me," Diaz said in the now-deleted tweet. "The next president of the United States @realDonaldTrump #Apprentice #POTUS #ElPresidente."

For Democrats, the SD 40 victory was filled with challenges, mainly keeping voters engaged in a campaign that got overshadowed by the massive Hurricane Irma that slammed into the Florida Keys on Sept. 10, a little more than two weeks before the election.

Heading into Election Day, Democrats were nervous. After all, Republicans were winning the number of pre-Election Day ballots cast when compared to Democrats who voted by mail or at in-person early voting sites. And a last-minute request by Democrats to extend poll hours on Tuesda got rejected by Scott.

But internal party polling and Election Day vote tallies offered Democrats encouraging news because they show ed that Taddeo had handily won the coveted No Party Affiliation voters by a strong margin.

To do that, the Florida Democratic Party and affiliated progressive groups and unions say they worked together to knock on what they said were 50,000 doors of voters in the last four days of the election.

Democrats executed a similar strategy last month at the other end of the state in the St. Petersburg mayoral race, where Republican Rick Baker has been vexed by Trump. After a last-minute endorsement by former President Barack Obama, Mayor Rick Kriseman outperformed the polls and took the contest to a run-off that will be decided in November.

"This is a referendum, first with Kriseman coming from down in the polls to a first-place finish. And now Annette Taddeo winning Election Day by 19 points and winning NPAs in every segment of the vote, according to the initial numbers," said Juan Peñalosa, a strategist for the Florida Democratic Party. "Democrats and progressives came together to win this election, we are unified, and we have the momentum going into 2018."

It also represents something Florida Democrats have not seen in a long time: a victory over the Tallahassee special interest machine.

“Wonder how many lobbyists from [Diaz’s] party are in Ubers’ on the way to wherever Annette’s’ is,” joked one Democratic consultant.