Red-necks pick a Red-neck....

Moore's win spells trouble for GOP establishment in 2018

The insurgent's victory in Alabama is likely to fuel other primary challenges in a year that was supposed to be kind to the GOP.

By ALEX ISENSTADT

Insurgent Roy Moore’s rout of incumbent GOP Sen. Luther Strange in Alabama’s special election Tuesday has senior Republicans bracing for a wave of resource-draining primaries across the map that could undermine their best-laid plans to defeat Democrats in 2018.

Moore’s win — over an incumbent who benefited from millions of dollars in spending by a super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell — is certain to provide fuel for conservative challengers lining up to take on sitting senators in states like Arizona, Nevada and Mississippi.

The result was a major setback for President Donald Trump, who went all-in for Strange in a state where the commander-in-chief is overwhelmingly popular. And it emboldened Trump’s former chief strategist, Steve Bannon, who said the Alabama race is the opening front in a pitched midterm war against GOP incumbents — and an opportunity to undermine his nemesis, McConnell. After the race was called, Bannon stood backstage with Moore as the victorious candidate prayed.

As he introduced Moore at Tuesday’s victory party, Bannon made clear that he was looking far beyond Alabama, which he called the start of a “revolution.”

“You’re going to see in state, after state, after state, people that follow the model of Judge Moore — that do not need to raise money from the elites, from the crony capitalists, from the fat cats in Washington, D.C.,” Bannon said. The race, he added, centered on the question of “who was sovereign — the people or the money — and Alabama answered today, the people.”

It’s “a huge win for the conservative movement, a great awakening,” said Chris McDaniel, a Mississippi Republican who is weighing a primary challenge to Sen. Roger Wicker. If the archconservative Moore could survive the McConnell-led offensive, McDaniel added, “then it can be said with confidence that the GOP establishment's stranglehold on American politics is finally coming to an end. It should encourage conservative challengers all across the republic.”

McConnell himself has expressed profound worries about primaries and the impact they could have on his party’s 2018 prospects. In the weeks leading up to the Alabama runoff, the Republican leader privately predicted that a Moore win would stoke insurgent bids across the country.

It's far from certain that other primary candidates can pull off what Moore did. The controversial former judge, who rose to national fame after defying a federal order to remove a monument of the Ten Commandments from a state building, is an established figure in Alabama who has a substantial following, particularly among social conservatives. And Strange's appointment was clouded by controversy over questions of impropriety, which he denied.

But either way, Republican Party leadership has a big problem on its hands. McConnell has vowed to do everything in his power to help incumbents win primaries, but that protection effort is likely to cost the party many millions of dollars.

It’s disappointing news for the GOP hierarchy, which initially believed that it would spend the midterms on offense. Going into 2018, 23 Democratic-held Senate seats were up for grabs, compared with just nine Republican ones. Republicans were convinced they had a golden opportunity to expand the majority they won in 2014 and retained in 2016.

Conservative primary challengers are looking to tap into the same anti-establishment fever that drove Trump’s presidential campaign. And, just as it did during the 2016 campaign, there are early indications that it is taking a toll on the mainstream wing of the party. Exacerbating matters is the party's trouble passing major legislation despite control of the White House and both chambers of Congress.

On Tuesday, veteran GOP Sen. Bob Corker announced that he wouldn’t run for reelection next year. Corker had drawn a potential challenger in state Sen. Mark Green, who, like McDaniel, has been in talks with Bannon. After attending a get-out-the-vote rally for Moore on Monday, Bannon, Green and McDaniel spoke until 1 a.m.

Bannon, who spent several days on the ground in Alabama, worked behind the scenes to marshal conservative support for Moore. In meetings with movement leaders, he cast the race as a defining battle between conservatives and the establishment. He urged them to focus not on House races for the time being, but on Senate primaries — and on launching a battle against McConnell.

Other big-name conservatives are getting in on the anti-incumbent effort. Radio show host Laura Ingraham has thrown her support to Arizona Republican Kelli Ward, who is trying to unseat Sen. Jeff Flake. Ingraham is expected to host an Oct. 17 fundraising event for Ward that is likely to draw a number of major donors, including jewelry company owner Bill Doddridge, financial services entrepreneur Hank Seale, and construction executive Martin Harmon.

Ward, who is leading Flake in polls, said she hoped Moore’s win would give her a further boost.

“I’m starting to not think of myself as the insurgent in this race,” she said. “I’m starting to think of myself as the front-runner.”

If McConnell had hoped his investment in Strange would deter 2018 primary challengers, his failure could have the opposite effect. By the time the Alabama runoff was over, the McConnell-controlled National Republican Senatorial Committee had dispatched dozens of staffers and a super PAC aligned with the majority leader had plowed millions of dollars into TV ads assailing Moore.

To top it off, McConnell had worked to persuade the White House to intervene in the race. None of it could save Strange.

As the results trickled in on Tuesday evening, some GOP donors and operatives said they wanted to know why the party had spent so much and fallen so short.

“It bodes very well for us because it shows that an incumbent U.S. senator, even with $9 million from McConnell’s super PAC, can lose reelection,” said Nevada Republican Danny Tarkanian, who is challenging Sen. Dean Heller.

Moore’s win also raises other challenging questions for the party. McConnell has privately voiced concern about the prospect that Moore, a hard-right figure, will face a competitive December general election against the Democratic nominee, former U.S. Attorney Doug Jones. It remains unclear whether the national party, which invested so heavily in Strange’s campaign, will need to expend resources to get Moore over the finish line.

It also poses questions about whether Trump will be able to pull his favored candidates over the finish line in tough primaries. The president traveled to Alabama on Friday to hold a rally for Strange.

On Friday, though, Trump offered his congratulations to Moore in a brief telephone call that lasted around a minute and was arranged by Bannon. The president said he looked forward to working with him.

It feels good, doesn't it? Trump asked Moore, according to a person briefed on the call.