Next national special election

The next national special election clash

Democrats and Republicans from both coasts are focused on a Washington state Senate race that will decide if Democrats control the state government.

By DANIEL STRAUSS

National Democratic and Republican organizations have descended on an obscure state Senate district in Washington, where full Democratic control of the state’s government hangs in the balance in an upcoming special election — and where Democrats are itching for a major 2017 electoral win after striking out in several high-profile congressional contests.

Democrats control the governorship and state House in Washington but are one seat short of a majority in the state Senate, where Republicans have kept Gov. Jay Inslee from enacting major legislative priorities on carbon emissions, voting rights and birth control. Last month, the GOP-led state Senate forced Democrats to compromise on a less expansive state budget.

“The way I’m portraying it, this race is the last brick in the big blue wall on the West Coast,” said Washington Democratic Party Chairwoman Tina Podlodowski. “We’ll have California, we’ll have Oregon, and we’ll have both houses and the gubernatorial seat here in Washington state. That big blue wall is what’s going to eventually stop Donald Trump and make its way eastward.”

With big stakes come big money, which is already pouring in to the race for late GOP state Sen. Andy Hill’s old seat in the Seattle suburbs. Republican Jinyoung Lee Englund and Democrat Manka Dhingra have already raised about $500,000 each, more than all but four Washington state Senate candidates in last year’s full election cycle. By the November election, observers estimated that the total price tag for the seat — and control of the state Senate — could reach or exceed $10 million, an enormous sum for a single state legislative race.

“They are going to pour a huge amount of money in — both sides will,” said Chris Vance, former chairman of the Washington Republican Party.

Vance noted that the district leans Democratic. Hillary Clinton won 65 percent of the vote there in 2016, and former President Barack Obama won 58 percent in 2012, according to calculations by the liberal website Daily Kos, which recently endorsed Dhingra and started raising money for her.

“With Trump and everything else, I don’t see how the Republicans win this,” Vance continued. “They’re going to try though; they’re going to bus volunteers in from all over the state.”

Englund strategist Stan Shore said he expects Englund to raise about $1.5 million and see even more flow into outside-group efforts. He noted that almost all of Englund’s cash has come from inside Washington, while money is coming into Dhingra’s campaign from all over the country.

But Democrats are especially eager to nationalize the race, given the lean of the district and the sting of disappointing losses in congressional elections on GOP-leaning turf in Montana and Georgia this year. The Georgia congressional race, between GOP Rep. Karen Handel and Democrat Jon Ossoff, became the most expensive House election in U.S. history after small donors flooded the campaigns, especially Ossoff’s, with money, and big GOP donors spent millions more through super PACs.

The Democratic National Committee and Republican National Committee, as well as two D.C.-based party organizations focused on state legislatures — the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and the Republican State Leadership Committee — have already begun boosting Dhingra, a King County prosecutor, and Englund, a businesswoman and former staffer for Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers.

The DNC’s Western regional desk is monitoring the race closely and working with the state party, while the DLCC is moving funds to an outside-spending organization in Washington. Its regional political director is also working closely with Dhingra’s campaign.

The race is the DLCC’s “top priority in 2017,” DLCC executive director Jessica Post said.

Christina Purves, the RNC’s regional communications director, said the committee is funding a "walk app" for volunteers, to help the Washington GOP target voters as part of its efforts to support Englund. And the RSLC has transferred $250,000 to another outside group supporting the GOP candidate.

"These are independent-minded voters in this district that will ultimately decide to keep balance in state government over a Democrat monopoly set on a new income tax," said Justin Richards, the RSLC’s vice president for political affairs and communications. "We'll help out in whatever way is necessary."

Republicans hold both the governorship and state legislative majorities in half of states in the U.S., while Democrats have just six. And Democrats are anxious not to let this opportunity slip through their fingers.

Freshman U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal, who has endorsed Dhingra, said she plans to deploy 40 to 50 campaign interns this summer to help Democrats win the special election.

"It's a critical race. It would tip the balance," Jayapal said.