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June 09, 2017

That was smart... Not..

Theresa May clings on after UK returns a hung parliament

The British prime minister’s gamble in calling the election fails as she loses her majority.

By TOM MCTAGUE

Britain woke up Friday morning more divided and uncertain about its future than anyone thought possible.

A general election that was supposed to settle political and constitutional questions thrown up by Britain’s exit from the European Union failed — answering none, raising more and leaving no party with a majority in parliament.

From a position of relative strength, dominating a compliant parliament which had accepted Brexit, Prime Minister Theresa May was left struggling to cling on to her job, unsure whether she would even be able to form a government.

By midday, aides had made clear she intended to stay on, at least for now, and would aim to establish a government with the support of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party. Downing Street said she would go to Buckingham Palace at 12:30 p.m. U.K. time to tell the Queen she was in a position to form an administration.

With one constituency still to declare its result, May’s Conservatives had won 318 seats in the 650-member House of Commons. Labour won 261, the Scottish National Party 35, the Liberal Democrats 12, and other parties 23 seats.

After a night of political drama which saw Labour’s vote share surge by 10 points, halving its 2010 deficit, three things seem certain: May is deeply damaged; Jeremy Corbyn is safe as Labour Party leader for as long as he wants; and Britain is in for a prolonged period of political instability which may only be solved by a second general election.

If Brussels had come round to the prospect of an unyielding two-year Brexit negotiation under May — grating in its parochialism maybe, but at least grown-up — they now face the nightmare prospect of a new partner across the table or a weakened May beholden to her backbenchers and a small retinue of Northern Irish MPs.

Labour said it was ready to form a minority government, although it seemed unlikely the party could garner the necessary support from other parties.

“We are offering to put forward the program on which we fought the election. We have done no deals, no pacts with anybody,” Corbyn said. “We will put forward our point of view. We are of course ready to serve.”

Brexit is also now up in the air — as even David Davis admitted. The Brexit secretary told Sky News at 2:30 a.m. that the election was, in part, about getting a mandate for “the sort of Brexit we want.” It was also designed to give the government more time to complete the process by ensuring that the incoming administration would have a clear five years before having to call an election.

He suggested the U.K. government may have lost a mandate to exit customs union and single market. “[Our manifesto] said we wanted to leave the customs union and the single market, but get access to them. That’s what it was about, that’s what we put in front of the British people, we’ll see by tomorrow whether they’ve accepted that or not,” he said.

Nigel Farage was quick to warn that he would re-enter the political fray if Brexit was softened. “We may well be looking down the barrel of a second referendum.”

The Democratic Unionist Party — if they form an alliance with the Tories  — will look to soften Brexit around the edges, particularly in order to ensure there is no threat to the soft border with the Republic of Ireland, so crucial for the region’s economic security.

Calls for May to quit

Boris Johnson is the most obvious Tory winner from the fallout. When a steady but uninspiring leader has been found wanting, they may turn — sooner or later — to a tried and tested winner with the charisma to take on Corbyn.

Some Conservatives called for May to go but many others were conspicuously quiet while they reflected on their next moves.

Anna Soubry, a former minister, said May needed to “consider her position”. On ITV, former Chancellor George Osborne, whom May fired on taking office, did not hold back: “The manifesto, which was drafted by her and about two other people, was a total disaster. It must go down now as one of the worst manifestos in history by a governing party. I say one of the worst, I can’t think of a worse one.”

Corbyn was also quick to call on May to quit. “This election was called in order for the prime minister to gain a larger majority in order to assert her authority. The mandate she’s got is lost Conservative seats, lost votes, lost support and lost confidence. I would have thought that’s enough to go, actually, and make way for a government that will be truly representative of all of the people of this country.”

The one consolation for Tory MPs was the party’s performance in Scotland, whose place in the union looks more secure after a wounding night for the SNP, which lost seats — and its leader in Westminster Angus Robertson, and former First Minister Alex Salmond — to the three unionist parties.

In the early hours of the morning May appeared, voice clearly shaking, to give what amounted to a holding statement at her count in Maidenhead, pleading for a “period of stability” for the country, but failing to address her own future.

“Votes are still being counted,” she said, “but at this time more than anything else this country needs a period of stability. If, as the indications have shown, the Conservative Party has won the most seats and probably the most votes then it will be incumbent on us to ensure that we have that period of stability and that is exactly what we will do.”

Corbyn, despite finishing a distant second, was the clear winner of the night, forcing many of his fiercest opponents to eat their words.

Labour’s Peter Hain, a former minister, said Corbyn had “harnessed an enormous protest movement in this country” to defy expectations.

“I don’t think people saw him as a prime minister but they saw him as someone who spoke up for their values against a political class who weren’t listening. Brexit is now up for grabs. It’s going to be very difficult to have the hard-right Brexit she wanted.”

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