Not well played...

8 election blunders that cost Theresa May her majority

From failing to prepare the ground to underestimating Jeremy Corbyn — how the British prime minister blew it.

By ANNABELLE DICKSON

She took a gamble and it backfired spectacularly.

Theresa May called an election when she had no need to do so, betting that she would trounce Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party and win an increased majority before beginning Brexit negotiations with the EU.

Now her Conservatives have lost their majority after a weak and wobbly campaign that undermined the party’s message of “strong and stable” leadership.

As the campaign drew to a close, POLITICO spoke to veterans of U.K. election battles who shed light on May’s key mistakes.

1. Failing to ‘roll the pitch’

May’s predecessor David Cameron talked about “rolling the pitch” — the cricketing term for preparing the ground — ahead of election campaigns. Instead, the Conservative manifesto centerpiece — plugging the funding black hole for social care by making people foot the bill after their death by drawing on any assets they have over £100,000 — came as a bolt from the blue.

Craig Oliver, David Cameron’s director of communications, said that unless big policy ideas are introduced to people gradually, reactions tend to be “very, very strong.”

“I think there is definitely a sense that if you haven’t rolled the pitch and actually led people to a certain position then it becomes very hard,” he said.

2. A leader but not a campaigner

May was meant to be the Tories’ trump card but she has looked like she would rather be anywhere else than on the campaign trail, appearing unsure and wooden.

Ayesha Hazarika, a former adviser to senior Labour politicians, said the Tories’ decision to run a presidential-style campaign needed a “high wattage, high voltage person.” Anyone with a “modicum of objectivity” would have understood that May was not a “natural confident, fluent performer,” Hazarika said. “She doesn’t come alive in front of a crowd. Some people are, other people aren’t. It is just the fact,” she said.

A former Tory campaign staffer said May, who rarely did media interviews in her previous job of home secretary, was “not as nimble” a performer as Cameron because she hadn’t had the practice.

3. Team May too small

May prefers to rely on a small circle of close advisers. Hazarika said she should have been more collegiate and drawn more on other talents in the party. “When it went wrong she suddenly looked very, very lonely,” she said.

“We know when you are leader, it is easy to develop a clique and a bunker when you are in government. It is dangerous to do that when you are running a political campaign, you can’t afford to quickly lose touch with the public and your own grassroots base and your members,” she said. “That is obviously what happened with the dementia tax. They clearly were not engaging with members. That is why they missed how much of stinker that dementia tax would be.”

Concerns about the economic impact of cutting immigration remained unanswered.
Oliver said: “I also think the other problem was that it was pretty evident that a lot of people in the cabinet felt they hadn’t been involved in this and that the policy over social care was as much of a surprise to them.”

4. Mixed messages

May’s manifesto suggested the party was stealing Labour’s clothes with a pitch to the so-called “just about managing” — working-class voters on lower incomes.

But her decision to renew the Tory manifesto offer of a free vote in parliament on fox hunting, and her support for the return of the blood sport, reminded people that May was still in many ways a traditional Tory.

5. Poor regional strategy

Senior figures close to the Cameron government point to their regional operation in marginal seats as a key to success in the 2015 election.

The party prepared the ground with various financial measures in the run-up to the election, such as funding for infrastructure projects from bypasses to road and rail upgrades, meaning Cameron had something of substance to talk about when interviewed by regional media.

By contrast, May had little to say to the regional media, who play a key role in reaching voters who do not play close attention to national politics. Her interview with the Plymouth Herald got plenty of attention — for the wrong reasons. She delivered “three minutes of nothing.”

6. Magic money tree withers

Omitting costings from the Conservative manifesto put the party on the back foot over economic competence.

In the last days of the campaign, the Conservatives returned to the Cameron playbook with claims that Corbyn had a “magic money tree.” May and her television debate stand-in Amber Rudd both deployed the line in television appearances.

But the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank delivered a damning verdict of the Conservatives as well as the Labour manifesto, claiming neither had presented an honest set of choices.

The Conservatives and their media allies spent much of their time in the final days of the campaign portraying Corbyn as a radical Marxist and terrorist sympathizer.
Concerns about the economic impact of cutting immigration remained unanswered.

The May campaign was also light on public letters of support from senior business figures, which often play a role in Conservative election campaigns and can help deflect attention from negative headlines.

Hazarika said Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell’s line that the only numbers in the Conservative manifesto were the page numbers was highly effective.

7. No giveaways

A common criticism of the May manifesto was that it didn’t give people anything to vote for. Where Corbyn’s manifesto was stuffed with giveaways, May’s had little in the way of eye-catching goodies.

Oliver said: “There are a lot of people who felt they wanted to not have a manifesto that had stuff that looked like pie in the sky. The result was that when social care fell down and people looked at the rest of the manifesto, it is quite hard to see where the things are that people can feel good about.”

8. Corbyn attacks miss target

The Conservatives and their media allies spent much of their time in the final days of the campaign portraying Corbyn as a radical Marxist and terrorist sympathizer. But the genial chap who turned up for a cozy sofa chat on the BBC’s One Show magazine program with a jar of jam did not seem like a clear and present danger to the British way of life.

Hazarika said: “Corbyn has had so much thrown at him that the attacks seemed really late in the day and they weren’t telling anybody anything new.”