Trump will sink Pence

Insiders: Trump will sink Pence in VP debate

'Is it just me or are the two VP candidates infinitely more appealing than their running mates?' said a Pennsylvania Republican.

By Steven Shepard

Tim Kaine isn’t Mike Pence’s only opponent Tuesday night in the only debate between the vice-presidential hopefuls — Pence also has to cope with the big shadow cast by his party’s standard-bearer, Donald Trump.

That’s one reason Democratic members of The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of swing-state activists, strategists and operatives — are more optimistic about Kaine’s chances of delivering a winning performance than Republicans are about Pence’s.

Virtually all Democratic insiders surveyed last week, 97 percent, expect Kaine to get the better of Pence at Longwood University. In comparison, fewer than three-quarters of Republicans, 74 percent, think Pence will win.

“Pence will have to defend Trump and his year-plus of inflammatory comments,” said a New Hampshire Republican, who, like all insiders, completed the survey anonymously. “Kaine won't.”

“Kaine in a blowout,” an Iowa Republican predicted. “He has a personality. Pence does not. His attempts to explain Trump are among the most tortured I've ever seen. … Pence goes about it with all the passion of a dead fish skittering along the concrete at [Seattle’s Pike Place] Market.”

Other Republicans who thought Kaine would outperform Pence were critical of the Indiana governor’s style.

“Kaine may have better appeal, if only because Pence is too ‘Cracker Barrel’ for moderate, upper-middle-class suburban constituencies,” a Michigan Republican said.

“Tim Kaine is the relatable neighbor next door,” an Iowa Republican added. “Mike Pence is the guy you feel the need to impress in church.”

But the majority of Republicans have faith in Pence, who is in his first term as Indiana governor after serving six terms in the House.

“He's a really good communicator and engaging personality,” a Pennsylvania Republican said. “Tim Kaine isn't either.”

That doesn’t mean those Republicans covet Pence’s position: defending Trump, who plucked Pence out of Indianapolis less than three months ago.

“The only reasonable person in the race is Pence,” a Virginia Republican said. “However, he will have the unenviable task of defending Trump.”

So far, insiders said, Pence has done an admirable job as Trump’s running mate. Asked whether the Trump campaign has deployed Pence in the most effective way possible, a 52-percent majority of GOP insiders said it has, and another 27 percent said Pence had been somewhat effective.

“Mike Pence has exceeded expectations,” an Ohio Republican said. “He has valiantly tried to clean up every mess.”

And if Trump falls short this year, a number of GOP insiders in key early states said Pence has impressed them.

“Pence is really effective,” said a GOP insider in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire. “I didn't want Trump to pick him, but I've totally changed my mind and hope he runs for president next time around!”

“He is brilliant,” an Iowa Republican said, adding that Pence “should be [the] presidential candidate. He will be someday.”

As for Kaine, most Democrats were satisfied with the ways in which he’s been deployed by Hillary Clinton's camp: 47 percent said Kaine has been deployed in the most effective way, and another 43 percent said the Virginian has been somewhat effectively deployed.

“Seems like they have been very strategic in having him smaller media markets in battleground states, plus help on fundraising,” a Colorado Democrat observed.

“He gets down with the people,” added a Florida Democrat. “He relates. He's down home, old shoe. His harmonica and his wife's clogging is just what the campaign needs in coal mining and similar areas.”

Expectations for Kaine are particularly high in his home state on Tuesday night.

“Having known Tim for almost 20 years, he is just whip-smart, great on his feet, very sincere,” said a Virginia Democrat. “Everything you could want.”

“I have known Tim Kaine for many years and observed him in prior debates,” added another commonwealth Democrat, “and he is motivating and influential.”

A couple of Virginia Republicans offered their compliments, too. One called Kaine a “trial lawyer who is great on his feet,” and another said the first-term senator is “a good talker if you do not challenge him.”

Overall, many insiders fell into two camps: those who relished a debate between two civil, substantive combatants — and those who think a debate between these two running mates will be a snooze-fest.

A Colorado Democrat said the debate is likely to be as exciting "as watching paint dry." One Nevada Democrat asked simply, "Who cares?" An Iowa Republican seemingly answered that rhetorical question: "Nobody cares."

But others said they were more interested.

"Honestly, this should be one of the better duels at the vice-presidential level," an Iowa Republican said. "To the extent the debate is about them, it should be a great match. Even if it devolves into a defense of their running mates, it should be a great show."

Asked a Pennsylvania Republican: "Is it just me or are the two VP candidates infinitely more appealing than their running mates?"