GOP hopes bleeding has stopped

House GOP hopes bleeding has stopped as Democrats expand map

Democrats are pouring money and effort into brand-new districts, but GOP incumbents are putting up a fight.

By Rachael Bade and Theodoric Meyer

House Republicans are increasingly worried that Donald Trump’s presidential collapse will cut deep into their 30-seat majority, as races that looked relatively safe months ago have suddenly become battlegrounds in the final weeks of the 2016 election.

The blowback against Trump has practically eradicated the GOP’s early autumn hopes of keeping its House losses in the single digits. Some senior House Republicans are now predicting they could lose as many as 20 seats — not quite enough to lose the majority, but “on the warning track” of a devastating result, as one worried GOP strategist put it.

Yet while Democrats are expanding the election map and competing for more and more districts, they haven’t been able to put many races away. Vulnerable Republicans like Reps. Bob Dold of Illinois, Rod Blum of Iowa and Cresent Hardy of Nevada have put up ferocious fights, forcing Democrats to continue spending money in their districts — and eating into the pot of cash Democrats are now trying to spread into far-flung, late-breaking House targets from southern Indiana to Montana.

The result: a chaotic, outsize House landscape packed with seats that could tip either way on Election Day, depending on how still-high numbers of undecided voters break in the final 13 days of a fast-moving race.

“I’ve got to think there is somewhere in the neighborhood of two dozen seats that could go either way,” said Ian Russell, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s political director.

Most Democrats still shy far away from predicting they can recapture the majority, though some are increasingly bullish. And while Republicans acknowledge they’re exiting October in worse shape than they ever imagined, they believe it’s possible Trump has hit rock bottom and can’t pull the House GOP any further down with him.

“There’s a lot more close races than we want to see. … They expanded the map and are dropping money in places where we weren’t expecting,” said one senior House Republican close to leadership and the National Republican Congressional Committee. “But I don’t feel a sense of panic. There’s a sense that we’ve stopped the bleeding. I still think we’re talking about double-digit losses, but not 20-plus like I worried about a couple weeks ago” after the publication of the 2005 “Access Hollywood” video in which Trump talks about women using vulgar language.

During a call with select House Republicans last week, GOP leadership encouraged lawmakers already current on their NRCC “dues” to donate directly to vulnerable incumbents in need of a boost, including veteran members like former committee chairmen John Mica of Florida and Darrell Issa of California and less-tenured members like Rep. Scott Tipton of Colorado. Just weeks ago, GOP leaders scoffed at the idea any were in peril — but both districts have since been flooded with hard-hitting Democratic TV ads.

“It wasn’t like, ‘We’re going to lose these races if they don’t get money.’ It was more like, ‘We’re just making you aware where [the Democrats] put money; now let’s give them some money to shore them up,’” said one Republican on the call.

The private conversation demonstrates just how successful Democrats have been in expanding the landscape over the past few weeks, following up tough talk with a stream of money.

The DCCC and House Majority PAC, Democrats’ main House super PAC, have now hit the airwaves with independent-expenditure ads in at least 32 Republican-held districts, including a number that seemed like long shots months ago. Mitt Romney carried both GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder’s district in Kansas and the open GOP-held district in southern Indiana by double digits in 2012, but recent internal polls now show tight House races in both, and the Democratic groups have put attack ads on the air.

The investments have rattled some House Republicans. Several were shocked when House Majority PAC dropped $450,000 against Rep. Ryan Zinke in Montana, for instance. Even Republicans who under normal circumstances would have nothing to worry about — like Rep. George Holding and open-seat candidate Ted Budd in heavily gerrymandered North Carolina — are nervous about Democrats’ strength in their state, though no one believes they are in any real danger.

But Democrats have left it until the last possible moment to push money into the kind of “reach” districts they’d need to win back the House. The DCCC, for instance, is just this week putting coordinated funds behind ads with Steve Lindbeck, the Democrat challenging GOP Rep. Don Young in Alaska, and Jane Dittmar, who’s running for a Republican-leaning open seat in Virginia. And even in the cheap rural media markets of those districts, the money so far adds up to drops in the bucket of a major campaign: about $15,000 in Alaska and $60,000 in Virginia, per an ad-buying source.

Funds are tight because while Democrats have succeeded in expanding the House map, they’ve been disappointed by their inability to lock down more races. Indeed, some of the most vulnerable candidates have pulled ahead of their Democratic challengers, and Republicans still believe that most are leading head-to-head polls right now.

Case in point: GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo, whose internal polling shows him up by 12 percentage points in his South Florida district — even though Democrats have spent nearly $3.5 million against him and Hillary Clinton is set to beat Trump there by double digits.

Another example: GOP Rep. John Katko of New York, who’s leading his Democratic challenger by more than 20 points, according to a recent Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll, despite Clinton leading Trump in the district.

Democrats have succeeded in expanding the map, said Jefrey Pollock, a top Democratic House pollster. But even in that environment, “there are races we would like to be doing better in and that we’d like to stop spending money in,” he said.

“There are no races where I’m going, ‘Oh, my God! What are we going to do?’ I’ve been in those cycles … we’re not having one of those cycles. Our candidates are up,” said one Republican strategist who wished not to be named.

Republicans also argue that the backlash against their candidates that followed the Trump “Access Hollywood” tape has quieted in most places.

They were reassured after Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC closely aligned with House leadership, deployed a $10 million advertising “firewall” this month to protect Republicans in districts that Democrats have been targeting.

Now they say Republicans like Mia Love of Utah, whose Mormon-heavy district abhors Trump’s alleged treatment of women, are doing just fine after a temporary hiccup — though House Majority PAC launched TV ads against Love on Tuesday.

“A couple weeks ago our internal polling was showing the bottom sliding out with double digit drops in some places, but a lot of that’s leveled out with the train going back in the other direction,” the Republican source close to the NRCC and leadership said. “I think the bleeding has stopped, and I’ve seen our people strengthen. So I feel way better than I felt just a few weeks ago.”

Democrats are hoping (and Republicans fearing) that a chunk of anti-Trump Republicans, who support their local lawmaker even if they despise their presidential nominee, simply won’t show up to vote on Election Day. That could have a decisive impact on a number of major House races.

The big question, Democratic and Republican pollsters say, is Clinton’s margin of victory. Right now, Clinton is leading Trump by 6 to 7 points in the presidential race.

“If that solidifies, I think that makes it much more likely that Democrats can make some real headway in the House,” said Zac McCrary, a Democratic pollster.

Republicans, however, think their incumbents can withstand such a loss — so long as it doesn’t go into the double digits.

“I would say confidently I don’t think Democrats will take the House or there will be a huge wave — provided Trump doesn’t lose by 10 points or more,” said the Republican strategist who asked not to be named.