Flip the ticket

Insiders: Pence outclassed Trump

'Is there anyone outside of the Trump family who isn't wishing we could flip the ticket?' asked a Colorado Republican.

By Steven Shepard

Mike Pence didn’t just defeat Tim Kaine in their only debate — he also outshined Donald Trump.

A majority of the battleground-state insiders who comprise The POLITICO Caucus gave Pence the edge over Kaine in their vice presidential debate at Virginia’s Longwood University on Tuesday night: 60 percent of all insiders, including 96 percent of Republicans and 21 percent of Democrats.

But the Pence-vs.-Trump comparison was unanimous: Each and every one of the four dozen GOP insiders who responded to a post-debate survey Tuesday night said Pence delivered a better debate performance than the New York businessman at the top of the Republican ticket, after what was widely seen as a flop last week in the first presidential debate.

“Not even close,” said an Ohio Republican — who, like all insiders, completed the survey anonymously. “Is there anyone outside of the Trump family who isn't wishing we could flip the ticket? Mike Pence projects calm reassurance and strength and an ability to articulate a vision and policies Americans support. For the first time in months we heard a serious case for conservative principles.”

“Pence was the anti-Trump,” a Nevada Republican added. “He was prepared, smart, composed and he showed respectful competence and leadership.”

A Virginia Republican called the question “a no-brainer.” Another Virginia Republican said Trump “was a disaster.” A New Hampshire Republican suggested Pence “pinch hit” for Trump in the final two debates with Hillary Clinton.

“If the Republican ticket were flipped,” a Colorado Republican added, “it would be game over.”

As for Tuesday night’s debate, the vast majority of Republicans gave Pence the victory over Kaine. Most GOP insiders described Pence, the first-term Indiana governor, as better-prepared and more composed than Kaine, who was seen as frequently interrupting Pence.

“Pence was calm, reasoned, on message and polite,” a Michigan Republican said. “Kaine was arrogant, rude and defensive.”

“Mike Pence was unflappable, staying relentlessly on mission to critique Hillary Clinton, in spite of Tim Kaine's constant and rude interruptions,” a New Hampshire Republican added.

Some GOP insiders said Pence made the most of a poor hand: put on the defensive by Kaine and moderator Elaine Quijano when confronted with Trump’s positions and statements.

“Mike Pence won the debate tonight; however, Tim Kaine won the post-debate narrative,” a Colorado Republican said. “Pence was smooth and calm, but he didn't defend Trump on several issues, and didn't back up his statements the way he needed to. Kaine might have come across as a jerk tonight, but his zingers will be quoted in every paper, and that's what matters.”

“Kaine was rude and disrespectful in the debate, but he did a better job of attacking Trump then Pence did in attacking Clinton,” added a Wisconsin Republican. “And while he may have ‘won’ the debate, he didn't do anything to bring on undecided voters. Kaine fortified the base.”

The majority of Democrats, 79 percent, said Kaine was the winner after doggedly seeking to yoke Pence to his running mate.

“Kaine was aggressive and on message,” said a Democrat in Kaine’s home state of Virginia. “Kept on Pence relentlessly on key issues. Pence was smooth but utterly devoid of content.”

“Kaine did a better job of making Trump look bad than making himself look good, and that's just fine,” added a Florida Democrat.

But some Democrats conceded that Pence acquitted himself well.

“Mike Pence was definitely more polished, even if seemingly he has never read anything Trump has ever said,” a Florida Democrat said.

“Pence did a better job of deflecting attacks and articulating his side's positions,” a North Carolina Democrat said. “Donald Trump should just let Pence do the rest of the debates.”

While insiders judged the debate’s winners and losers, there was considerable uncertainty about how much the running-mate showdown will matter. Past vice-presidential debates haven’t moved the needle, even when one candidate outperformed the other.

GOP insiders were split: 54 percent said Pence’s performance would help the Republican ticket, but 46 percent said it wouldn’t have an impact on Trump’s chances. Among Democrats, a 59-percent majority said the debate wouldn’t matter, while 37 percent predicted it would help Clinton and 4 percent said it would help Trump.

“The impact may be minimal,” a Nevada Republican said, “but voters struggling to vote for Trump because of his temperament now have some hope for mature leadership in the administration. Historically speaking, no one votes for a vice president. But historically speaking, we have never had two presidential nominees that 60 percent of Americans don't like or trust.”

“I am a big Trump skeptic,” an Ohio Republican. “Watching Mike Pence tonight will make me drag my feet a little less on Election Day.”

But many insiders predicted it would soon be overtaken by other news events.

“It's a VP debate prior to a major hurricane [potentially making landfall],” a Virginia Republican said. “Here today, gone tomorrow.”

And one Iowa Republican was already looking past this election, assuming a Trump defeat.

The debate “elevated Pence to the top of the 2020 GOP nomination” race, the Iowa Republican said.