Democrats dream

Democrats dream the unthinkable: Speaker Pelosi

Donald Trump's nose dive has suddenly made it possible.

By Heather Caygle

Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House.

As Donald Trump’s poll numbers tank, dragging the whole GOP down with him, the possibility that Pelosi could return to the speaker’s chair after a six-year absence has suddenly grown very real. No one has done anything like this since the legendary Sam Rayburn did 60 years ago, and it is still unlikely to happen. Yet the House is definitely in play, according to experts on both sides of the aisle, which means the 76-year-old Pelosi could be wielding the speaker’s gavel again come January.

It would be a stunning, almost unthinkable, triumph for Pelosi. Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010, and many thought Pelosi would — or should — retire. But the California lawmaker hung on. Democrats won seats in 2012 as President Barack Obama was reelected, but then were wiped out again in 2014. House Republicans amassed their biggest majority in 80 years, and there was open grumbling from some rank-and-file lawmakers about whether Pelosi should step aside for a younger leader who could bring Democrats back to the promised land.

Pelosi resisted. She saw Republicans oust John Boehner last year and replace him with Paul Ryan, 30 years her junior. Watching the rise of Trump, she started saying months ago that Democrats could take the House. No one really believed her, seeing her comments as just ritualistic posturing by a political leader trying to rally her troops.

Yet now, with less than four weeks to go, Democrats are suddenly hopeful they can pick up the 30 seats they need to recapture the majority.

“It’s no longer, 'Can we fight to win the House?'" said House Democratic Caucus Chairman Xavier Becerra of California. "It’s, 'Can [Republicans] fight to keep from losing the House?'”

Pelosi sent a letter to Democrats on Friday afternoon asking for their thoughts on when to hold leadership elections in November, with the addendum: "Happily, we anticipate a large freshman class."

Democrats are salivating over the kind of progressive agenda they'd pursue with a Speaker Pelosi, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York and President Hillary Clinton. Several Democratic sources told POLITICO the wish list would likely include billions of dollars for infrastructure spending, potentially an overhaul of immigration laws, and bipartisan fixes to Obamacare.

If Democrats do take the House, Republicans would immediately be heavy favorites to win it back two years later; lower-turnout midterm elections typically lean conservative. That might make it all the more tempting for Democrats to go for broke while they have the chance.

Publicly, Democrats are trying to curb their enthusiasm, warning there’s plenty of time between now and the election for the landscape to shift and that it’s not time to start popping the champagne yet.

“Leader Pelosi is singularly focused on Election Day,” spokesman Drew Hammill told POLITICO. Pelosi aides stressed that there’s no measuring of the drapes or planning for a takeover behind the scenes.

Privately, though, it’s clear Democrats — relegated to the hinterlands of the House minority for 18 of the past 22 years — are brimming with ideas about what they’d do if somehow, some way, they win the House.

Two big “i’s” could lead the list.

“Hillary Clinton has said there are two big priorities she wants to tackle right away: infrastructure and immigration,” Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) said in an interview. “I think the appetite on our side of the aisle for both of those things is quite great.”

Clinton has been talking since at least 2014 about pairing a tax cut for U.S. companies that bring earnings parked overseas back into the country with a major infrastructure package.

Some — though certainly not all — Democrats believe such a deal at the dawn of a new Congress could offer a vehicle for other big-ticket items, including immigration reform.

“I think that a jobs package absolutely will include investments in roads, bridges, schools, all the things that need to be built. That becomes, I think, the mothership to bring across the finish line other very important legislation, whether it’s on tax policy or immigration policy,” Becerra said.

Taking back the gavel might also allow Pelosi to take care of some unfinished business from her previous tenure and focus on progressive policy initiatives on which she and Clinton are in lock step, like affordable child care, paid medical leave and equal pay.

Even if Democrats take back Congress and hold onto the White House, they won’t have a blank check to push through whatever policy agenda they want.

Assuming Democrats win the Senate, too, under that scenario, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) would be laser-focused on taking back the upper chamber in 2018, when Democrats will be defending 25 seats compared with eight for Republicans.

Pelosi and McConnell have a cordial working relationship — they worked closely together to secure funding for the Flint, Michigan, water crisis during recent spending bill negotiations — but he would likely be looking to use the vast power of the minority in the Senate to scuttle the Democrats' agenda at every turn.

Though a Pelosi-led House might seem like too much wishful thinking on Democrats' part, even House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) warned recently it could happen. On a private call with donors Wednesday, Ryan pointed out that Republicans lost 21 seats in 2008, when Barack Obama beat John McCain by 7 percentage points.

Sources interviewed for this story were unanimous on this: If Democrats win back control, Pelosi is all but guaranteed to be elected speaker. She's maintained a tight grip on her caucus since losing the majority in 2010 and is a powerhouse fundraiser, bringing in nearly $560 million for Democrats since joining leadership in 2002.

Democrats would need to pick up at least 30 seats to take back the gavel — a tall order, for sure, but one that Trump's weeks-long nosedive has put in play.

Clinton is up 7 percentage points over Trump in the RealClearPolitics average, and Democrats currently have a 6-point advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot. Those numbers are approaching wave-election territory for Democrats.

For now, Democrats are just happy to talk about something that just a month ago seemed out of reach.

“There’s an overwhelming, very positive feeling [among Democrats]," Democratic Caucus Vice Chair Joe Crowley of New York said about "the real reality of taking backing the House.”

Said Becerra: “It would not surprise me one bit if Nancy Pelosi made history again.”