The downside...

Donald Trump's map: The downside

Republicans haven't had to worry much about Arizona and Georgia in presidential elections. Until now.

By Katie Glueck

The panic alarms aren’t sounding yet, but new polls out of Arizona and Georgia are heightening GOP anxiety about the prospect that the two states, long reliably red at the presidential level, could bolt to Hillary Clinton in November.

It’s the downside of Donald Trump’s potential to rewire the electoral map. Just as the presumptive Republican nominee shows signs he could pick off some longstanding Democratic Rust Belt states, his hardline approach to immigration and controversial remarks about women and minorities run the risk of accelerating trends in Arizona and Georgia that could turn them blue for the first time in a generation—or at a minimum, make them competitive enough that Republicans are forced to play defense.

Clinton still faces uphill battles in both states. Georgia has voted Republican in seven of the last eight presidential elections. Arizona has only voted for one Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948. But interviews with more than a dozen elected officials, operatives and activists in both states suggest that the traditional calculus in those places may not apply this year.

“It’s very difficult for a Democrat statewide, several times they thought they could put a lot of money into it and turn it into a purple state,” said former Arizona Republican Sen. Jon Kyl. “But this is a different year, certainly if Hillary Clinton has a lot of money to spend, she could decide to put some in Arizona. Who knows what November will bring.”

Georgia, said Charlie Harper, a Georgia Republican who runs a policy think tank and blog about state politics, “definitely has the potential to be competitive.”

“We still really don’t know enough about what kind of candidate we’re going to get out of Donald Trump,” he said. “Does the party consolidate around him? There is a lot of resistance to that, specifically, the Ted Cruz camp in Georgia, which is the organized anti-establishment establishment.”

An Atlanta Journal-Constitution survey released Saturday found Trump leading Clinton in Georgia by only four percentage points — within the margin of error. Two other surveys released in the last month found Trump’s lead over Clinton ranging between one and three points. In Arizona, a new automated poll from Public Policy Polling released Tuesday found Trump leading Clinton by just four percentage points, 45 percent to 41 percent. Another poll from April actually showed Clinton up by seven points.

Part of Trump’s problem is that, in addition to demographic challenges, he has more work to do than Clinton in uniting the GOP base: In Arizona, just 65 percent of Republicans say they’re comfortable with Trump as the nominee, according to the PPP survey.

“On a presidential level it certainly should be in play,” said Brian Murray, a veteran Arizona Republican strategist, pointing to moderate Republican women who are troubled by Trump’s record of inflammatory gender-related remarks, and senior citizens who wonder whether Trump’s policy inconsistencies would extend to their entitlements (Trump has promised to protect entitlements).

But the most pressing issue in Arizona is Trump’s relationship with Hispanic voters. While Republicans have the edge in voter registration in Arizona, Democrats and unaffiliated groups like OneArizona are working aggressively to register the booming Latino community, convinced that Trump’s heated rhetoric toward Hispanic immigrants is extreme enough that a demographic that has long been relatively politically dormant could turn out in significant numbers.

“A historically awful candidate, when it comes to Latinos, is going to motivate them to come out, especially young Latinos, which has always been a difficult demographic to get out,” said Arizona Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego. “With somebody like Trump on the ballot, they’re going to be self-motivated to come out.”

In the past, the Latino vote — which numbers just under 1 million eligible voters, according to the Pew Research Center — has failed to materialize in numbers significant enough to move the dial. But the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) is predicting an eight-percent increase in Latino turnout over 2012 in Arizona (when Mitt Romney carried the state by 10 points), and Democratic operatives and politicians insist that this time is different.

“These candidates have made the choice so clear, so stark, I’m absolutely hearing people every day out in the field say, ‘I need to vote,’” said Ian Danley, the executive director of OneArizona, a nonpartisan group that plans to register 75-80,000 new, predominantly Latino voters this year as part of a broader registration effort. According to the group, it has already registered around 10,000 voters since the beginning of the year.

Latinos and other Democratic voters may have added incentive to turn out this fall: Controversial Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Maricopa County, who was recently found in contempt of federal court over a racial profiling issue, is also on the ballot. His name is toxic in Arizona’s Latino community — and he has endorsed Trump. Republican Sen. John McCain has already privately acknowledged that with Trump at the top of the ticket, he also faces a competitive Senate race.

“With a very weak Republican candidate who’s said offensive, racist things about the immigrant community, with the motivated base as it relates to getting rid of Sheriff Joe Arpaio here in Maricopa County, and with a strong U.S. Senate candidate to pull it all together, it’s going to be a good year here in Arizona for Secretary Clinton,” said Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton, who like Gallego served on Clinton’s Arizona leadership team.

Arpaio’s own campaign manager is not convinced that Arizona is safe Republican territory for Trump.

“If we had a Marco Rubio or a Jeb Bush at the top of the ticket, in the political world we could guess within a decent margin of error what turnout was going to be,” said Chad Willems, Arpaio’s campaign manager, noting that some Arizona Republicans are still troubled by Trump, though he expects many will ultimately get on board. “With Trump, there are too many unknowns at this point. It may fare well for Republicans, it may fare bad for Republicans.”

But just as Trump may motivate some Latinos to turn out for Clinton, Republicans point out that he could have a catalytic effect on Republicans. He won the state primary decisively and has a committed and enthusiastic fan base in Arizona. Trump also has numbers on his side: Republican have an advantage in voter registration over both Independent and Democratic registration.

“There still won’t be enough Hispanics to make up the difference,” said a skeptical Sean Noble, an Arizona GOP operative who is not currently backing Trump. “For every additional Hispanic voter who shows up, there’s going to be a blue-collar Democrat who votes for Trump. He is resonating with low and middle-income folks.”

While Georgia also has a growing Latino population, it is African American voter turnout that will play the decisive role in Clinton’s performance. It’s off to a promising start: The state Democratic Party last month unveiled a new field program, paid for in part by major Democratic donor Philip Munger, the son of Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman Charles Munger.

“You simply need to maximize your voters of color, essentially turn out your base and hold the white vote we’ve had since John Kerry,” said Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams. “The impediment has been the [lack of] investment in turning out that base voter.”

With the new field program and a minority base energized to vote against Trump—and for Clinton, who does well with African American voters—Democrats are feeling increasingly optimistic, said Abrams and other leaders in the African American community in Georgia.

“Georgia is poised, in a real sense, demographically, to shift,” said Dr. Raphael Warnock, the pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, where Martin Luther King, Jr. was co-pastor. Warnock is heavily involved in voter registration efforts. “It’s really just a matter of time, and not a lot of time. It’s conceivable [now] that you could have the right formula: Hillary Clinton is a name a lot of people know well. There’s a great deal of goodwill for the Clintons in the African American community. That, coupled with concerns around Trump, makes it an interesting race.”

Much will depend on whether Republican voters decide to coalesce around Trump’s candidacy. Former Rep. Jack Kingston, who was an active Cruz supporter, said the Texas senator’s support is transferring to Trump at a “glacial” pace—but ultimately many will rally, he predicted.

“I think a lot of former Cruz and Rubio people aren’t giving Trump a big warm bear hug right now, but it will come,” said Kingston, who says he is now comfortable with Trump. “The three most inspiring words are ‘President Rodham Clinton.’”

Former GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss noted that Trump handily won the Georgia primary.

“In spite of Trump maybe making some statements that seem outlandish, I think there are a lot of people who identify with those statements, and I think he’s going to do very well here,” Chambliss said.

“I hope the Democrats believe,” he added, “that they should spend a hell of a lot of money down here.”