Do you really believe him?????

‘Not great, not terrible’: Why nobody trusts Russia to tell the truth about plague

Moscow’s historical lack of transparency feeds concerns about the incident in Irkutsk.

By Claudia Chiappa

As whispers circulate of plague in faraway Siberia, it’s worth remembering that Russian obfuscation is so ingrained that it’s become a meme.

In HBO’s dramatized 2019 series about the nuclear disaster at Chernobyl, a Russian atomic scientist scoffs at a radiation reading that suggests a major calamity is taking place. 

“Not great, not terrible,” says the fictionalized version of Anatoly Dyatlov, the real-life deputy chief engineer at Chernobyl in April 1986, as he looks at a dosimeter noting 3.6 roentgen per hour, just below a critical radiation level. 

Except that reading was not accurate. Not even close. The nuclear reactor had already exploded and unleashed catastrophic levels of radiation that would go on to cause thousands of cancer-related deaths in the worst nuclear power plant disaster in history.

While dramatized, the scene is emblematic of a long-standing Soviet and Russian desire to downplay critical incidents — and even cover them up. That pattern has flared this week, with senior world health officials, the European Union and U.S. President Donald Trump demanding that Moscow be more transparent about a suspected outbreak of plague in far eastern Russia.

In dark comedic twist in the face of the potential plague, Dyatlov’s dismissive remark is now ubiquitous. Not great, not terrible. 

Into the unknown

The death of a 28-year-old employee at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia and the Far East last week triggered unease across the globe due to her laboratory work — and a local Russian official linking her death to a case of plague.

Russia was quick to clamp down. Rospotrebnadzor, the country’s national public health agency, said that the employee died from “pneumonia of unknown etiology” and that no microorganisms associated with her work were identified in the patient sample.

Still, Russian health authorities placed nearly 200 people under supervision and local media reported that several hospitals were placed under quarantine. Rospotrebnadzor said Thursday these measures were taken due to “the patient's professional activities.”

The World Health Organization, which leads global response to international health threats, got in touch with Russian health authorities on Oct. 3. It requested more information using one of the tools laid out in the International Health Regulations, which Russia is signed up to. Under the IHR, countries have 24 hours to respond to the WHO — though Russia sent its response on Oct. 6.

Russian authorities said that “no case of plague had recently been registered in Irkutsk” and “no pathogens of dangerous infectious diseases were detected among any of the contacts.”

As of Thursday, Russian health authorities maintain that there is no “epidemic risk” in the region. Rospotrebnadzor said that it had concluded health inspections and found “no emergency situations involving pathogenic microorganisms.” It had also completed monitoring of 90% of the contacts, without identifying any infections, the agency added. Simultaneously, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov slammed media reports about the case as false and said Russia has been communicating with global health authorities.

Yet the WHO insists there’s still much left unknown about the events inside Russia.

“We don’t know exactly how this person died,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, director of epidemic and pandemic management, during a press briefing Wednesday. “We know that she had pneumonia. We know it was a fatal case. We understand that some laboratory tests have been done. They haven’t found the causative agent. This is why we need more information.”

The WHO said it requested further details on what laboratory tests were conducted, which pathogens were evaluated, which further analyses are being done to determine the patient’s cause of death — if not plague — along with more details on any potential lab incident and the 200 contacts.

Until those questions are answered, it’s impossible for the WHO to conduct a risk assessment.

“We don't yet have the full picture of this event, and we are not able to conduct a full risk assessment,” said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the organization’s director-general. “Timely, complete, and transparent information sharing under the international regulations is essential to clarify conflicting reports and enable an accurate assessment of potential public health risks.”

Omertà in Russian

It might be that the cause of death of the 28-year-old lab worker is not, in fact, plague. 

But Russia’s incomplete, late and hazy communication about the case is fomenting fears and uncertainty from Geneva to Brussels to Washington. It would also not be the first time the Kremlin has downplayed or attempted to cover up public health threats.  

That goes beyond the Soviet-era Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant disaster, in what is now northern Ukraine, where the Kremlin was slow to take action and effectively denied the cause of the incident.

In 1979, according to an investigation by U.S. scientists, the Soviet Union covered up a deadly anthrax outbreak in the city of Sverdlovsk, now Yekaterinburg, which killed at least 66 people. Officials said the victims had fallen ill from eating contaminated meat, when in reality they had been exposed to anthrax because of an accident at a secret biological weapons lab.

Russia was also accused of covering up a mysterious 1988 alopecia outbreak in Chernivtsi region, in which more than 175 children lost their hair. Soviet authorities said the children suffered from thallium food poisoning, but later studies raised questions about that, with some suggesting the cause was hydrazine, or acid rain.

Over the years, the Kremlin has also dismissed, downplayed and underreported HIV cases, even while in the middle of a deadly epidemic. And, more recently, during the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia was accused of downplaying coronavirus deaths, particularly at the beginning. 

The tradition extends beyond public health. The 1999 apartment block bombings, the 2000 sinking of the Kursk submarine and the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 by Kremlin-backed separatists all raised questions over Russia's public messaging and commitment to transparency.

Talks with Putin

The EU and the U.S. are monitoring the Irkutsk situation closely, with both seemingly growing impatient with Russia’s communication. 

“The whole world is waiting for the information from Russia,” said European Commission spokesperson Eva Hrncirova on Thursday.

“Russia should make information about the plague available as soon as possible,” she told reporters. “We need information from Russia. It’s linked to the Russian membership in the WHO Europe, sharing timely, precise, exact information so that the experts can assess the situation, because [it] can have cross-border implications.”

The European Commission’s directorate-general for health and food safety is planning to send a technical letter to Russia asking for more information, a Commission spokesperson confirmed.

In the meantime, Russia’s “patchy” communication is dangerous, said a Commission official, granted anonymity to speak candidly on the matter.

“This fuels speculation into all directions. It also renders preventive [and] precautionary action difficult, if not even meaningless,” the official said. These types of events happen all the time, but there is usually an exchange with the WHO and health authorities, the person added. “The lack of precise [and] reliable info is logically reducing adequate good preparedness.”

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday urged Russia to share more information, adding that it would be “irresponsible” to speculate until then. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that the U.S. sent a formal diplomatic message to Russia requesting more information about the woman’s death and reminding the Kremlin that it has obligations under international law to share information about disease outbreaks in a timely manner.

U.S. President Donald Trump even said Tuesday he had a "call scheduled" with Russian President Vladimir Putin "very soon" to discuss the situation. 

But, by Thursday, the two leaders were yet to talk, with Trump noting that Russia was “not saying much.” 

He still planned to talk to Putin soon, he added.