May be too late

Republicans hopeful Iran deal could stop the pain at the pump — but it may be too late

Even if gas prices ease, some Republicans, including those close to the White House, fear that voter perceptions of a sour economy are already baked in.

By Megan Messerly and Scott Waldman

Republicans who have been raising alarm about the political costs of gas pump sticker shock are relieved the Iran war could be ending — and hopeful prices will soon ease near pre-war levels.

They’re split on whether it’s too little, too late.

Gas prices have been falling since their pre-Memorial Day peak of $4.56 per gallon in anticipation of a deal to end the war, now hovering just above $4 a gallon. A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could accelerate that trend though it could take months, as the strait is freed of mines, tankers start the slow work of picking up oil shipments and Middle Eastern countries work to restore oil and gas fields hit by Iranian missiles.

And even if prices ease, some Republicans, including those close to the White House, fear that voter perceptions of a sour economy are already baked in and irreversible before the midterms. They note that President Donald Trump and the GOP were already grappling with affordability concerns before the war began at the end of February — and that merely returning to the status quo isn’t enough, particularly given the central role the economy plays in driving voter behavior at the polls.

“Economically, I don’t think there’s time. I think it’s too late, essentially, to really change a voter’s mood,” said one Republican close to the White House, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “But I mean, hey, I’ll take it. We’ll take whatever we get, right?”

Instead, they argue that the White House needs to be laser focused on affirmatively selling its case on affordability — and that Trump is the better economic bet for their prosperity.

“The argument is: Trump [improved the economy in] the first term, he can do it again, he knows how to do it, and now the war is over, we’re going to get back to it,” the person said. “The economic trend pre-war was actually pretty decent. Could we get back to it fast enough? I don’t think so, but let’s try.”

And that’s, of course, assuming the deal holds. The United States and Iran have digitally signed a framework agreement to end the war, but neither side has published the text of the deal, leaving uncertain key elements like whether Iran plans to charge tolls for transiting the strait in the long term and what, exactly, it is promising on its nuclear program. And Israel has said it plans to stay “indefinitely” in Lebanon, potentially undermining the agreement the U.S. and Iran have reached.

In a statement, White House spokesperson Kush Desai reiterated the president’s theory of the case — that oil and gas prices, and by extension overall inflation, will “plummet once the Iran situation is resolved.”

“Since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, moreover, the Administration has continued to push the President’s economic agenda to lower costs and accelerate growth: from slashing regulations holding back new home construction and seafood production to expanding discounted offerings on TrumpRx.gov,” Desai said.

For now, the president’s economic agenda, and the perception of its success among voters, is still entangled in the Strait of Hormuz — a global energy market chokepoint — and whether or not it is fully reopened and for exactly how long.

A senior U.S. official, speaking on background, told reporters Monday that Hormuz would be “open toll-free for 60 days” and that a permanent reopening would be one of the many complex pieces of the ongoing negotiations. Even in the best case scenario, the owners of oil tankers are still hesitant to send empty ships back through the strait to load up more oil because of mines and the risks of further attacks, the official acknowledged.

“I think we’ll get a very long way there over the next couple of weeks, but it’s going to take a little time because you have some crews that are extremely risk averse,” the official said.

Still, the deal sets the table for Trump to exit the conflict while also improving his political standing at home, said Stephen Moore, a conservative economist who has advised the president. While attacking Iran was risky, there is still time for Trump and Republicans to turn the war into a win by the midterms, he said.

“If the Iranians stick to the deal, then by the November elections, Trump could be seen as a hero for disarming the Iranian regime and bringing gas prices back down again,” he said. “It could turn what has been a political liability into a political asset for the Republicans.”

Some other Republicans are equally optimistic that there is still enough time for voters to feel the effects of lower gas prices, but they say it’s going to take consistent message discipline from the president to do so — one that some of them are skeptical he will be able to achieve.

“It’s not too late for Republicans — if Trump can resist constantly tanking what Republicans on the ballot want to talk about: what they’ve done to lower costs and put more money in voters’ pockets, and what they would do in the next Congress,” said longtime GOP strategist Doug Heye. “Voter registration data in swing districts is encouraging for Republicans. If some of the albatross of Trump’s low numbers can be lifted, they can be in a better place.”

But any optimism still needs to weather the harsh reality of the global energy market.

Falling gas prices likely will hit a floor at some point because global oil inventories have been thoroughly drained and are now at a multi-decade lows because the market is missing more than a billion gallons of crude oil supply, said Bob McNally, head of energy consulting firm Rapidan Energy and former energy adviser to the George W. Bush administration. If the deal holds, prices could dip below $4 a gallon, but at some point low inventories will reverse that trend, he said. And if the negotiation starts to fray, prices still could top $5 a gallon.

Either way, volatility is expected to last beyond the summer months because of the time new supply takes to get to market, he said.

Meanwhile, Democrats are largely shrugging off the idea that ending the war will relieve Trump’s economic baggage. They point to hard lessons learned under former President Joe Biden of the durability of economic pessimism in the minds of voters and how challenging it is to shift it on a dime.

“I don’t think gas prices going down are gonna help Republicans. Didn’t help Democrats during Biden. Voters don’t just forget about the months and months of high gas prices that added to their pain,” said Democratic pollster John Anzalone. “There’s plenty of PTSD. And I don’t think that they can go down enough or quick enough for it to have any aid to the Republicans.”

A POLITICO poll from May found that a plurality of voters say their finances have only worsened since Trump took office, including 18 percent of the president’s 2024 voters. More than 60 percent of voters, including majorities of both Trump voters and people who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, say the war has made life more expensive.

“The damage caused by Trump’s self-inflicted war has already been done. Even if the deal is upheld and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, gas prices will not rebound before the midterms,” said Democratic strategist Adrienne Elrod. “Plus, a significant majority of Americans do not support this war and many have no idea why we are there in the first place, most notably the most important voting block of voters in the midterms — independent voters.”