It's called 'Being in the shitter..."

Trump approval is falling into George W. Bush territory

Analysis by Aaron Blake

It was almost exactly this time 20 years ago that the bottom began to fall out on George W. Bush’s approval ratings. And as Bush’s numbers in most polls fell into the 30s for the first time in late winter and early spring, the culprit was clear: the Iraq war.

History could be repeating itself with President Donald Trump in 2026. Just swap Iraq with Iran.

Two new polls released Tuesday morning showed Trump’s approval rating in the mid-30s: 36% in a Reuters-Ipsos poll and 35% in a Strength in Numbers-Verasight poll. They follow an NBC News poll over the weekend that showed Trump hitting a new low of 37%.

Over the past month now, eight of nine quality polls tracked by CNN have shown Trump in the 30s.

The only exception was a Fox News poll pegging Trump at 41%, but even that showed Trump with his worst numbers in its polls since 2017.

Let’s put those numbers in context.

Trump’s disapproval is hitting new highs

Not every poll shows Trump plumbing new depths with his approval rating.

Some pollsters showed him slightly lower in his first year in office in 2017, or after the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack.

But Trump’s 62% average disapproval rating in the CNN Poll of Polls — which averages the quality surveys mentioned above — is higher than just about any pollster indicated in either of those past instances.

Trump’s highest disapproval ratings in individual polls in 2017 were as follows: 63% in a Pew Research Center poll, 61% in a Quinnipiac University poll and 60% in Reuters-Ipsos polls. After January 6, he hit 62% in a CNN poll, 61% in a Quinnipiac poll and 60% in a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Trump is now averaging those kinds of numbers across all polls, suggesting more Americans than ever are opposed to Trump.

The trendline is consistent

And perhaps more troubling for Trump, the trendline in his second term has been remarkably consistent — consistently down.

While there may have been a general perception that Trump was pretty unpopular in his first term as president, he recovered from the lows of 2017 to spend most of his presidency with an approval rating in the low 40s, which is somewhat normal for a president these days. That included ahead of the 2018 midterm elections and in his 2020 reelection race.

Trump’s approval rating in his first term was, for the most part, pretty flat.

But in his second term, those numbers have trended slowly but steadily downward.

That trend predated the Iran war. But the war also appears to be solidifying some of Trump’s major liabilities, costing him the support of the kinds of people who hadn’t ditched him before.

New lows on the economy

A big reason for that appears to be views of his handling of the economy, which the Iran war — and the rising gas prices that have accompanied it — has sent to new lows.

Trump’s disapproval on inflation is now routinely around 70%.

Inflation has long been Trump’s worst issue, with voters often saying he has neglected concerns about rising costs. But increasingly, polls show it has some competition for that mantle from the Iran war.

The NBC poll showed two-thirds of Americans disapproved of Trump on the Iran war — just a tick less than the 68% who disliked how he’s handled inflation.

And the earlier CNN poll showed 67% disapproved of Trump’s handling of Iran, compared to 69% for the economy and 72% for inflation.

He’s getting into Bush territory

It’s certainly possible that the trend line could change and that a resolution to the Iran war could help Trump.

But if the president’s approval rating solidifies in the mid-30s, he would be in some pretty rare company. It would be territory mostly inhabited in recent decades by just one man: George W. Bush.

When Bush dropped into the 30s two decades ago, he was the first president to spend a sustained period there since Jimmy Carter, according to Gallup data. Joe Biden, like Bush, spent some significant time in the 30s, but generally in the high 30s.

It’s not unusual for presidents to be unpopular these days; in fact, it’s kind of the norm.

But Trump is teetering into some pretty unusual and dangerous political territory.