Italy’s crunch referendum

Trump’s strikes on Iran give Meloni a headache before Italy’s crunch referendum

The Italian prime minister faces a difficult balancing act to preserve her alliance with her ally in the White House.

By Hannah Roberts

U.S. President Donald Trump’s airstrikes on Iran are creating a problem for his ally Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni ahead of a high-stakes referendum on March 22-23, which polls suggest she risks losing.

While the nationwide referendum is ostensibly about judicial reform, it has rapidly snowballed into a broader vote of confidence in Meloni and her right-wing government, Italy’s most stable in years.

Meloni’s close alliance with Trump now threatens her political fortunes as he is highly unpopular in Italy, with 77 percent of people holding an “unfavorable” view of him according to the pollster Yougov. The war is also exacerbating widespread fears about an energy price shock — a major factor in a country that already pays some of the EU’s highest power prices.

That hostility toward the U.S. president, as well as fears over the impact of the war on household bills, means Meloni is now treading a tightrope, avoiding criticizing her powerful ally in the White House while reassuring voters that Rome will not be dragged into the war.

In a political compromise, Meloni on Thursday pledged air-defense support to Gulf states hit by retaliatory fire from Iran, and her defense minister said Italy would send “naval assets” to protect Cyprus. She is simultaneously insisting, however, that Italy will not give direct support to the U.S.-Israeli war against Tehran, and notes that U.S. bases in Italy are authorized only to offer logistical support, not to conduct offensive operations.

“We’re not at war; we don’t want to go to war,” she told RTL radio on Thursday.

This balancing act over Iran could hardly come at a worse time for Meloni. Polls now suggest the referendum is too close to call, and that much will depend on the turnout. Should she lose, it would be a major set-back for a politician who has enjoyed an air of invincibility at home and on the EU stage in recent years.

The Italian leader has invested heavily in her relationship with Trump, hoping to position herself as a kind of European “Trump whisperer” capable of maintaining influence in Washington.

But that strategy is now beginning to carry political costs at home, with Italy’s marginal role in U.S. strategic decision-making laid bare by the stranding of her Defense Minister Guido Crosetto in Dubai last week, as the strikes unfolded without prior warning.

Crosetto himself later conceded the powerlessness of America’s European allies in a parliamentary debate. He admitted the attack on Iran had “certainly occurred outside the rules of international law” but added no government — European or otherwise — could have prevented the strikes.

The potential use of U.S. military bases in Italy also risks becoming politically explosive in a country where the public has historically been wary of being drawn into U.S.-led conflicts.

The government insisted that the use of bases such as Naval Air Station Sigonella in Sicily is limited to logistical and technical support covered by long-standing bilateral agreements. Using Italian soil to provide support for strikes would require the government’s permission, which has not been requested, Meloni said in her comments to RTL on Thursday.

Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told parliament that the government’s actions were meant to protect Italian citizens in the region as well as shipping lanes, and to prevent a spike in energy prices. “We are not just addressing Trump’s positions; the safety of our fellow citizens is the priority.”

Conscious of the danger posed by soaring energy prices, Meloni on Tuesday summoned energy leaders to her office for ministerial talks on energy security. She told Italian radio that her government was “working incessantly” on stemming price rises in food and energy.

Sensing her political vulnerability, however, opposition parties have criticized her for refusing to condemn the strikes and over her subservience to the U.S.

During the debate in the parliament, Angelo Bonelli of the Green and Left Alliance accused the government of  being subservient to Trump.

“You are leading Italy into war, minister. Do you know why? Because when a military aircraft arrives, be it a cargo plane or something else, and goes to perform maintenance or something else, those planes will then go bomb, they will go into the theater of war, they will provide military logistical support,” he said. “What’s the difference between military logistical support and someone who goes bombing? It means being at war, and we don’t agree. No, thank you!”

Arnaldo Lomuti, a lawmaker from the populist 5Star Movement, quipped that Rome should distance itself from Washington and Israel, requesting that the government “impose sanctions against the United States, and present a military aid package for Iran.”

Analyst Leo Goretti of the Istituto d’Affari Internazionali said Meloni “is keeping a low profile, well aware that public opinion is overwhelmingly against Italian involvement in the war, while needing not to damage relations with Trump.”