Threats rattle Mexican officials

‘Mexico should indeed be concerned’: Trump’s threats rattle Mexican officials, businesses

Trump’s rhetoric, including his suggestion over the weekend that Washington may have to “do something” about cartels that are “running Mexico,” is reviving fears in Mexico City.

By Megan Messerly

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is dismissing talk of a U.S. “invasion” of her country.

Privately, some Mexican officials and business leaders are concerned that President Donald Trump’s threats may soon become reality. A worst-case scenario, some fear, is a U.S. strike that results in civilian casualties and throws the country into political and economic chaos.

Trump’s rhetoric, including his suggestion over the weekend that Washington may have to “do something” about cartels that are “running Mexico,” is reviving fears in Mexico City that the United States may act unilaterally against Mexico — particularly after the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Saturday.

“Mexico should indeed be concerned, and Mexico is going to have to thread the needle very carefully,” said Arturo Sarukhán, Mexico’s ambassador to the U.S. during the George W. Bush and Obama administrations. “I don’t think it’s likely that there will be a unilateral use of force by the U.S. on Mexican soil — but does that mean it won’t happen? Absolutely not.”

The concerns have grown even as bilateral relations are at a high water mark, driven in part by close cooperation on border security and Trump’s warm words for Sheinbaum, whom he called a “terrific person” as recently as Sunday.

But despite the public assurances from Sheinbaum and Trump’s apparent affection for her leadership, business leaders reliant on peace and stability are increasingly anxious. They worry about the Trump administration’s hostile posture as it treats drug trafficking and border security as core national-security threats that can be tackled with military force.

“Setting aside personal judgments about what happened in Venezuela, this action increases concerns about the potential for unilateral action against Mexican cartels,” said Pedro Casas Alatriste, CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce in Mexico.

Another Mexican business official, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the situation between the two countries, said the initial reaction in Mexico was, “They literally pulled the [Venezuelan] president out of his bed, and now he’s in New York. My God, that could be us.”

Publicly, Sheinbaum’s government has responded to the action in Venezuela by leaning hard on international law and de-escalation. In a statement, her government condemned the use of unilateral force and warned that military action carried out without a collective or multilateral framework would violate international law and risk regional instability.

Behind the scenes, Mexican officials have paired that message with an aggressive and ongoing effort to cooperate with Washington — particularly on counternarcotics operations and border security — in hopes of removing any justification for U.S. action. Over the last year, Mexico has, at Trump’s behest, sent thousands of troops to the border, transferred dozens of high-level drug traffickers to U.S. custody and allowed expanded U.S. surveillance flights over Mexican territory.

Sheinbaum’s statement “isn’t meant to escalate things bilaterally,” said one Mexican official, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the country’s strategy. “[Sheinbaum] has also been clear that Mexico can maintain dialogue and cooperation with partners while holding a firm, autonomous position grounded in international law.”

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said Trump has “many options” to protect Americans from drug trafficking.

“The administration is reasserting and enforcing the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, control migration, and stop drug trafficking,” Kelly said.

The possibility of U.S. action comes at a pivotal time for the U.S.-Mexico relationship, which faces a series of high-stakes tests in the coming months. The U.S. and Mexico, along with North American neighbor Canada, are preparing to jointly host the 2026 World Cup and the three countries must decide this year whether to extend a free trade agreement that covers trillions of dollars in commerce as the Trump administration stares down affordability concerns heading into the midterm elections.

Together, they raise the potential costs for any U.S. move in Mexico carried out without Sheinbaum’s authorization.

“The U.S. needs Mexico on trade, the U.S. needs Mexico on migration, and the U.S. needs Mexico on going after the criminal groups. The reverse is also true,” said Luis de la Calle, former undersecretary of international business negotiations at the Ministry of Economy in Mexico and former minister of trade issues at the Mexican embassy in Washington. “In the end, Mexico and the U.S. have huge incentives to cooperate between the two of us.”

Mexico also presents a fundamentally different scenario than Venezuela, one in which targeting drug cartels, not regime change, is the goal. Polling within Mexico has shown at least some support for U.S. intervention to fight cartels, which remain overwhelmingly unpopular.

“There is huge popular frustration across the entire region with crime, and if the United States kills somebody who is a known cartel figure, then I think there may be some popular support for that,” said Ricardo Zúñiga, who served as principal deputy assistant secretary of State for Western Hemisphere affairs at the State Department during the Biden administration. “Whether Mexico has a role in that, it’s in their interest to be seen as having had agency in that.”

Those differences, coupled with the importance of the relationship with the U.S., help explain why Sheinbaum has been careful in her public response. Rather than directly pushing back on Trump, she has emphasized cooperation between the two countries and addressing “root causes” of drug trafficking and other issues.

“In recent months, we have established an understanding with the United States based on four principles: respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, shared but differentiated responsibility, mutual respect and trust, and cooperation without subordination,” Sheinbaum said Monday at her daily press conference.

But that strategy may be hard for Sheinbaum to sustain. Already, the action in Venezuela has emboldened critics on the left of Sheinbaum’s party, Morena, who argue Mexico should take a tougher line against Trump.

A U.S. strike inside Mexico would only “embolden hardliners within Morena,” said Gerónimo Gutiérrez, who served as Mexico’s ambassador in Washington during Trump’s first two years. “There are people within Morena that would love to really pick a fight with the United States — or have Sheinbaum pick a fight.”

At the same time, officials and analysts say the Venezuela episode has reinforced a broader position inside the Trump administration — one that increasingly treats narcotrafficking, migration and border security as national-security threats rather than law-enforcement challenges, and frames the Western Hemisphere as a central theater for defending the homeland.

“I honestly think we were on this course regardless of what happened in Venezuela,” said Alex Gray, who served as National Security Council chief of staff and deputy assistant to the president during Trump’s first term. “The president said in the [2025] National Security Strategy that defense of the homeland is the number one priority, and he’s tying that to hemispheric defense as this logical progression. What is a direct threat to the homeland? Narcotics trafficking, fentanyl — all of that.”