Important political questions

How California’s redistricting fight is a preview of the midterms (and beyond)

Proposition 50 may answer some important political questions just in time for the midterms and then the 2028 presidential race.

By Ben Fox and Melanie Mason

A marquee ballot measure battle usually takes months of meticulous planning. Not so with California’s brawl over redistricting. The Democrats’ bid for voters to approve a blatantly partisan gerrymander — in retaliation for a rare mid-decade redistricting by Texas Republicans at the urging of President Donald Trump — has set the stage for a high-stakes national showdown on a compressed timeline.

To plunge ahead, both Democrats and Republicans have made a number of risky assumptions and strategic bets that are undergirding their approach to the campaign — and what they expect to happen if voters approve the new maps Nov. 4.

Whether they are right or wrong could not only determine the outcome of the California election, but also serve as a test case for the parties in next year’s midterms.

Here are six assumptions shaping November’s redistricting showdown (and the groups making them).

Trump is enough to motivate ‘yes’ voters (Democrats)

California voters don’t love it when politicians draw district lines. That came back loud and clear in initial polls as Democrats’ redistricting play was getting underway. Newsom and his team crafted the ballot measure specifically to allay voters’ discomfort by enshrining in law that the independent redistricting commission would take up the pen again after 2030 and including trigger language that made the measure contingent on actions by Texas or other states (such language was removed after Texas advanced its maps).

But now that the campaign is in full swing, they’re not relying on nuanced arguments about temporarily pausing the redistricting panel. They’re relying on a blunt message: Stop Trump.

Democrats’ internal polling found that voters are more likely to support the issue if it’s framed in partisan terms as a pushback to Trump, so proponents are going all in on that message. Trump is mentioned in all 10 of the ads rolled out by the Yes side, and he is the dominant image in most of them.

The goal is less to convince wary independents; it’s to juice participation among the most dedicated Democrats. As Jim DeBoo, a top strategist for the ‘Yes’ side, said during POLITICO’s “The California Agenda: Sacramento Summit” last month: “It’s not a persuasion campaign, it’s a turnout campaign.”

Still, it is a calculated risk, given that independent redistricting is still wildly popular, even among Democrats. Newsom’s campaign is leaning hard into the argument that democracy is at stake, which did not prove to be especially compelling to voters in 2024. And ballot measures typically have a harder climb convincing voters to get to yes.

People paid attention in kindergarten and think that two wrongs don’t make a right (Republicans)

Back in 1986, former minister Robert Fulghum scored a megahit with his book of essays “All I Really Need To Know I Learned in Kindergarten.” We’re in a very different era, but opponents of Prop 50 seem to have missed the memo, and that could be a miscalculation.

The central argument against the measure is that the new congressional maps proposed by Democrats are not “fair” — a complaint that wouldn’t be out of place on a playground.

“I’ve heard arguments in these halls that just because Texas is doing it, we should too, that the White House is holding onto money that should go to California and democracy is in flames,” Republican Assemblymember Jeff Gonzalez said in a floor speech. “Colleagues, two wrongs don’t make a right.” And there was Republican leader James Gallagher addressing Democratic claims that they were merely responding to Texas: “Fighting fire with fire is the problem,” he said. “It’s not the solution.”

The problem with those arguments? That’s not the vibe of 2025. The mood among Democrats, and perhaps many non-partisan voters as well, seems to be more “Lord of the Flies” than “Mr. Rogers Neighborhood,” as attendees at town halls and other events around the state will attest and some early polling reflects. Many people – especially the kind who tend to vote in off-year elections — view Trump as a legitimate threat to democracy, and Prop 50 as a last line of defense.

Arnold Schwarzenegger is still influential (Republicans)

For opponents of Prop 50, Arnold Schwarzenegger looms in the background of the fight over redistricting as a possible savior. Or maybe a secret weapon. Either way, they shouldn’t count on him coming to their aid – or that it would matter much.

Yes, Schwarzenegger campaigned for Proposition 11, the ballot measure that created the state’s nonpartisan redistricting commission, when he was governor in 2008. And, yes, he has publicly said he opposes Prop 50, handing opponents plenty of material to cut ads against the measure. He even did a photo-op in a custom “Terminate Gerrymandering” T-shirt.

Jessica Millan Patterson, who is running one of the committees against the measure, said she envisioned Schwarzenegger as a primary campaign messenger – even though she hadn’t discussed the prospect directly with him.

But Schwarzenegger, though a Republican, can be unpredictable, and he’s no fan of the current occupant of the White House. He said after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol that Trump “will go down in history as the worst president ever” and endorsed Kamala Harris in 2024.

There’s also some question about his influence more than a decade since the end of his second term as governor, when he left office with 23 percent approval and with his Hollywood blockbuster days behind him. Yes, by some measures, Schwarzenegger is the most popular Republican in the country. But California has only gotten bluer since Schwarzenegger was elected; no Republican has won the governorship (or any other statewide post) since he left office.

Patterson still sees him as an asset. “He brings people from every walk of life to the table, and he always feels like he’s fighting for you,” she said.

Darrell Issa’s days are numbered (Democrats)

At least nine Democrats have said that they plan to run in the 48th Congressional District, a sprawling swath of mostly rural and suburban San Diego and Riverside counties represented by Republican Rep. Darrell Issa. Their enthusiasm is understandable – but the new lines hardly make the district as friendly to Democrats as some might think.

Issa, a polarizing figure who has closely allied himself with Trump, won the seat in 2024 with nearly 60 percent of the vote. Any Democrat running under the existing boundaries would be considered essentially a sacrificial lamb, and would struggle to get much support from the national party.

Under the new borders, Democrats would make up nearly 37 percent of the registered voters in the district; Republicans would have 33 percent; and no-party preference would have 30 percent.

Harris would have defeated Trump in 2024 under this map by about 3 percentage points, according to an analysis from a Democratic campaign shared with POLITICO. But consider this: Adam Schiff would have defeated Republican Steve Garvey for Senate by less than 1 percentage point, and Brian Dahle, the GOP candidate who lost handily to Newsom in 2022, would have won this version of the 48th, according to the analysis. In other words, it’s complicated.

Issa, one of the wealthiest members of Congress, will have resources to fund a campaign targeting independent voters – of which there are many who lean Republican, said Andrew Hayes, a member of a school board in the district who ran for Assembly in the area and lost to another Republican. “Darrell has seniority in Congress, so he has folks who will want to support him,” he said. “And then he also has a fortune that he could spend, if he so chooses.”

Derek Tran and Adam Gray can sleepwalk through 2026 (Democrats)

Democrats are salivating over pick-up opportunities in five GOP-held seats under the proposed maps. But they’re equally amped about shoring up some of their own vulnerable incumbents, which would deprive Republicans of chances to go on offense.

In some cases, targeted Democrats would indeed breathe easier with the new maps. Rep. Dave Min, a freshman who won his Orange County seat by just three points, would see an influx of Democrats in his new seat. Harris would have won the district by more than 10 points, as opposed to her four-point margin over Trump in the current district.

But it would be premature to declare all vulnerable Democrats “safe;” some are marginally safer.

Rep. Derek Tran, for example, won by just 653 votes in 2024 in an Orange County seat that backed Harris over Trump by less than two percentage points. Under the new maps, Harris would’ve increased her margin to just under four points — not exactly a slam-dunk blue seat. Republicans appear undeterred by the new lines, with several GOP candidates, including Vietnamese Americans, jumping into the race. That could pose a threat to Tran, who got a big boost last year by GOP voters in Little Saigon who were willing to cross party lines to vote for a fellow Vietnamese American.

Of course, it’s not in Tran’s interest to act as though he’s got that race in the bag, even if he feels more confident than he’s letting on. Emphasizing how tough that race could be – even with the new maps – is a powerful fundraising message, plus it ensures that party committees and super PACs stay engaged in the race.

Paul Mitchell, the redistricting expert who led the map-drawing for California Democrats, acknowledged there are “gradients” to how much each district would become more solid for Democrats. But there are also subtle ways that seats would be shored up that aren’t reflected in the registration numbers or comparisons to past campaigns.

The Central Valley district held by Democratic Rep. Adam Gray, for example, backed Trump by six points in 2024, making Gray’s win by 187 votes even more remarkable. Under the new lines, Harris would have won that seat by less than a percentage point, the definition of a toss-up seat. But the new lines also include more of the northern part of the San Joaquin Valley, which aligns more with the legislative district that Gray represented in the Assembly for 10 years. That familiarity with those voters could boost Gray further than the numbers suggest.

Trump’s Latino voters are your Latino voters (Republicans)

Trump made surprising gains with Latino voters in California and beyond last year. Compared to his 2020 race against Joe Biden, he increased his vote share across the state, flipping 10 counties. That led to some surprising results, including the aforementioned Gonzalez, who won a seat in a rural district along the Mexico border that had a 14-point Democratic advantage. Nationally, Republicans have been ecstatic about gains with Hispanic voters, particularly in Texas and Florida.

Trump’s gains with Hispanics may have more to do with low turnout and a lack of enthusiasm for Harris than anything else. And the president may have hurt his appeal among California Hispanics with his divisive immigration raids – which have featured masked agents in tactical gear sweeping through communities across the state and snatching thousands of people with no criminal record.

Trump’s favorability is underwater by 20 points with the Latinos, according to a new poll commissioned by the liberal-leaning Latino voter group Somos Votantes.

ICE raids will drive Hispanic voters to the polls, and to the ‘yes’ side (Democrats)

Hispanics have been an essential ingredient of Democratic dominance in California since the 1990s, a result of their growing share of the population and alienation from Republicans because of the anti-immigrant Proposition 187.

Democrats are seeking to recapture that energy with Prop 50, where speakers at the launch rally repeatedly invoked the Trump administration’s immigration raids. As if on cue, Gregory Bovino, the Border Patrol chief who led an assault on MacArthur Park and other high-profile operations, even showed up outside the event.

“We were told (Trump) wanted to make us more safe, that he wanted to deport criminals,” California Labor Federation leader Lorena Gonzalez said at the rally, “and instead he’s been deporting and targeting workers and grandmothers and children and dreamers.”

Republican consultant Mike Madrid has been tracking a shift among second- and third-generation Latino voters who tend to hold more conservative views than their parents and grandparents. But he has also noted that the immigration raids are starting to shape public opinion and could cause a backlash.

His view: Neither Democrats and Republicans have a lock on Hispanics. “This is not a realignment,” he said. “This is a de-alignment.”