Maggots fleeing to the putrid states..

This is the least surprising California exodus

A new report digs into the politics of those moving in and out of the state

By Tessa McLean

Much has been made of the California exodus in the past five years, even as the outflow of California residents has greatly slowed. But people do leave every year, and a large portion of those exiting are exactly who you might have guessed.

Those fleeing the state are much more likely to be registered Republicans than Democrats, according to a new report from the Public Policy Institute of California analyzing registration data across the U.S. And those migrating into the state are more likely to be Democrats than Republicans. 

Since the 2020 presidential election, 39% of residents who moved out of the state were registered Republicans, while 54% of voters moving into California were Democrats. Those without a political affiliation or who identify with a minority party were 26% of those moving out of the state. 

Cost of living, jobs and family are still the primary drivers of relocation, said Eric McGhee, senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, but if any of those three things are making someone consider a move, “if you’re frustrated with the politics of the state, it just kind of pushes you over the edge.”

Unsurprisingly, those leaving for Republican states are more likely to identify themselves as Republicans, and those leaving for Democratic states are more likely to be Democrats. There were a few notable exceptions: Wisconsin and Ohio slightly defied this generalization. 

In all, this continues to exacerbate the polarization that is increasingly felt throughout the country. More counties flipped from blue to red in the last election, and more residents voted Republican in California than the state had seen in 20 years, showing the changing nature of the vast state. But some counties are already showing signs of discontent with the Republican party. 

California has never lost more than 1% of its population in its history, but recent population shifts caused the state to lose one of its 53 House seats in 2021. If this trend continues, it could have lasting political ramifications for the state. Meanwhile, states growing at a faster clip, like Florida and Texas, gained House seats. 

McGhee said it’s important to take note of this continued trend of geographic polarization throughout the country. But the data is limited, and “none of this is destiny. … There’s a lot more to politics than these demographic shifts,” he said.