Chance to de-escalate

Gaza deal offers Iran a chance to de-escalate, analyst says. Whether it will remains "far from certain"

From CNN's Lauren Kent

The Gaza ceasefire-hostage deal could provide an opportunity for wider de-escalation in the Middle East, particularly if Iran uses the opportunity to bring the temperature down, a senior fellow at UK-based think tank the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) says.

Iran – which backs Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen – has long engaged in a shadow war with Israel. Last year, Israel and Iran traded direct attacks for the first time.

“The ceasefire opens the possibility for Iran, having already lost significant strategic and hard power in the region, to reconsider its transnational proxy policy and deescalate with Israel,” said Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security at RUSI.

“It is far from certain that Tehran will seize the opportunity for de-escalation, despite needing it on many fronts.”

“There are several regional moving parts that will have a bearing, such as constraints on the US, Qatar and Egypt to facilitate the survival of the agreement and move beyond the impasse in the next phases,” Ozcelik said Thursday.

Ozcelik added that Houthi militants in Yemen will “now be expected to halt disruptive maritime activities in the Red Sea, something that the US, UK and allies will be watching closely.”

Over the past year, the Houthi group has been attacking shipping in the Red Sea and launching missiles at Israel, saying it will only stop once a Gaza ceasefire is reached.

“All actors will apply a wait-and-see approach during a still volatile conflict environment,” Ozcelik said. “And the risk remains that the deal could prove to be a tentative lull rather than mark the end of the war.”