1,470% increase

California sees 1,470% increase in acres burned compared with last year

By Amy Graff

A series of wildfires broke out in California in June, and many are wondering whether the eruption of grass fires was the start of a destructive season. No doubt the state saw a more active start to peak wildfire season this year compared with last: A total of 106,453 acres have burned since the start of 2024, compared with 6,781 acres in the same time frame in 2023, according to Cal Fire.

That is a 1,470% increase in acres burned. But despite this shockingly high number, experts say it’s too soon to know for certain what summer and fall — the period when wildfire season peaks — will bring.

“It’s difficult to forecast because there are knowns and unknowns,” said Isaac Sanchez, the deputy chief of communications at Cal Fire. While it’s known that topography, weather and vegetation are the key ingredients that shape a wildfire, Sanchez said it’s not known how the pieces will align when a wildfire ignites. 

Amid a changing climate, wildfire season is considered to be year-round in California. Destructive fires can even happen in December and January. But peak wildfire season is still considered to be June through November, and many view June as the start of fire activity.

Grass fires are common in June.

“The fine grasses are first to dry out,” Jason Clay, a spokesperson for Cal Fire, said. “The timber takes a heck of a lot longer to dry out than grass.”

Grass fires typically start fast and end fast, in contrast to the forest fires that simmer, throw out embers and spread.

Cal Fire’s North Bay unit — which oversees Colusa, Lake, Napa, Solano, Sonoma and Yolo counties — has seen a busy June. From June 16 to 20, the unit had 20,373 acres burn. By comparison, the unit saw 4,442 acres burn total in the years 2021 to 2023. 

The majority of the acres burned this June have come from the Sites Fire in Colusa County, which tore through a grassy landscape dotted with oak trees and grew to nearly 20,000 acres. 

“With the strong rains this winter, you do get a lot of grass growth,” Clay said. “But this year, the big difference is the early heat waves.”

Craig Clements, director of San Jose State University’s Wildfire Interdisciplinary Research Center, told SFGATE that he thinks the state has seen relatively normal grass fire activity in June that may seem more extreme than it really is because last year was so quiet. In fact, the past two years have been mild, with just over 300,000 acres total burned total in both 2022 and 2023, compared with 2.6 million in 2021 and a historic 4.3 million in 2020, when lightning strikes ignited a series of monster fires.

“This year is normal, last year was abnormal,” he said. “2020 was a big year, but if we didn’t have all those lightning events, it wouldn’t have been Armageddon,” Clements said.

One reason fire activity was significantly down in 2023, compared with other years, is that the winter saw record-breaking precipitation. A robust snowpack that melted through spring helped keep fuels and the landscape moist.

“Last year we had a huge winter; this year was more normal in terms of precipitation and snowpack,” said Clements. “The snowpack was much deeper last year at higher elevations last year. We were skiing in July. This year, ski resorts were closing in April and May. I went skiing at Carson Pass on June 2 and there was barely any snow. I walked 7 miles for 5 minutes of skiing.”

Thanks to this winter’s normal precipitation, the National Interagency Fire Center is actually forecasting below-normal to normal fire activity across California in June and July, normal conditions in August and normal to above-normal fire activity in September. The center does not provide forecasts beyond four months.

The forecast suggests that peak fire season will get off to a slow start this year, mainly because the large, heavier fuels — trees and large shrubs — are still holding onto moisture that makes them less flammable. And indeed, while the state has seen a lot of grass fire activity, it hasn’t seen a massive forest fire yet.

But while the forecast may suggest the big forest fires are unlikely to arrive until later in the summer, Clements warned that predictions can change.

“Heavier fuels are holding on to a little more moisture due to precipitation over winter, but even Tahoe is drying out,” he said. “I was walking around Tahoe last week, and it was dry and dusty. Pine needles can dry out really fast. We are in fire season now.”