Over?

Is the UK election already over? 

With the polls stubbornly refusing to turn, is there anything Rishi Sunak can do to move the dial and avoid electoral wipeout?

BY ESTHER WEBBER

The starting gun has yet to be fired on the next U.K. election, and yet it’s hard to escape the feeling it’s already over. 

With potentially another six months before Britain goes to the polls, and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak having had almost no luck shifting the dial on any of his political set-pieces — a mood of fatalism is setting in among his MPs. 

The Conservatives have been stuck 20 points behind in the polls for months as a growing number of MPs from different wings and generations of the party have announced they won’t stand again at the next election. 

The sense of a foregone conclusion deepened when John Curtice, one of the country’s most respected polling authorities, told POLITICO there was now a “99 percent chance of Labour forming the next administration.”

One long-serving Conservative MP, granted anonymity to speak frankly, hinted at the pessimism among his colleagues in saying of Curtice’s analysis: “It just doesn’t feel like news.”

Sunak still hopes he can win some credit for an improving economy, but looks increasingly isolated in that view. By contrast, one of the main fears of Labour’s election planners is complacency.

Writing on the wall

At this time two years ago, the average poll numbers of the main parties were within five points of each other. Following the ouster of Boris Johnson from 10 Downing Street that July, however, and the chaotic blink-and-you’ll-miss-it 49-day premiership of Liz Truss, the numbers headed south for Sunak and have never fully recovered. 

As the months passed, some Tories consoled themselves that the polls would narrow closer to an election and that a sizable chunk of current “don’t knows” would split for the Conservatives. 

The pollsters beg to differ.

YouGov’s Anthony Wells cautions that while the polls may narrow they are unlikely to move enough to deliver the “leap” required to close the gap. 

Westminster watchers say the election result could instead be a historic wipeout for the Conservatives, with even the party’s grassroots bible, ConservativeHome, pondering the possibility of a rout.

Against this backdrop, many Tory MPs are considering their options and deciding they’d rather not be part of the anticipated bloodbath.

So far, 63 Conservative MPs have confirmed they won’t stand again, against just 17 for Labour. The total includes James Heappey and Robert Halfon, loyal ministers seen as effective in their jobs, but who quit their posts this week ahead of standing down at the election.

They each gave their own reasons for leaving, but the wider impression is that many don’t fancy a spell in opposition.

The Labour Party, meanwhile, faces a very different problem, with Keir Starmer’s team constantly warning MPs and candidates not to rest on their laurels lest their lead slip away.

As Pat McFadden, Labour’s election chief, posted after one poll predicting a massive Labour victory: “Ignore this poll. Fight like we are behind. Fight like every vote matters. Change will only come for the country if people vote for it, and not a single vote has been cast.”

No way back? 

Sunak isn’t giving up without a fight. After toying with a “change” message last year, the PM appears to have settled on a more traditional sell: that only the Tories can be trusted with the economy. 

Speaking after a recent drop in inflation, Sunak told the BBC that 2024 will “prove to be the year that the economy bounces back.” He has repeatedly urged voters not to go back to “square one” with Labour. 

Yet while some economic indicators do encourage optimism — particularly the hope of lower interest rates for mortgage holders later this year — Sunak is unlikely to be rewarded while voters are still feeling the pinch. 

James Smith, research director at the Resolution Foundation think tank, pointed to reasons why talk of a bounce might feel misplaced, including “weak growth long-term and stagnation of living standards, with average wages still below the level they were before the financial crisis.”

This picture is reflected in focus groups run by Public First, a public opinion consultancy. The firm’s director, James Frayne, said: “People feel they’ve been beaten up financially for five years — almost everyone feels poorer.”

He added that while long-term incumbents often try to persuade voters that change isn’t worth the risk, “this time around that’s not viable — there’s no mileage in trying to scare people that change would be worse.”

Joe Twyman, director of the firm Deltapoll, points to its polling over the last nine months in which the proportion of voters who said they trusted the Conservatives most on the economy had been no higher than 34 percent and no lower than 28 percent. 

“If you think about all the stuff that’s happened over that time, the autumn statement, the budget [fiscal events], all the economic indicators good and bad — it has made statistically no difference,” Twyman said.

Sunak’s other big pitch to voters is claiming to have taken decisive action to bring down illegal migration by enacting his plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda. 

However, what was originally sold as “emergency legislation” has faced trenchant opposition in the House of Lords, the upper chamber of parliament, and is not expected to pass until late April, meaning those flights to Rwanda may not take off until June.

The hard sell

Sunak, along with the more upbeat of his troops, refuses to accept he’s doomed. 

He has urged voters to “stick” with the Tories in the next general election, saying that his plan for recovery is “starting to deliver.”

A senior Tory MP on the right of the party cast doubt on Curtice’s words, saying: “I’ve been around long enough to know that nothing is ever certain in politics.” 

A minister challenged Curtice to “come knocking on some doors and then he’d see how many voters out there are still undecided and open to persuasion.”

On that score, the sentiment of those close to Sunak matches that of the higher-ups in Labour as they try to eradicate complacency ahead of the election. 

A senior Labour aide described Curtice’s verdict as “nonsense” and warned party colleagues not to be sucked in by such predictions. 

But unless something fundamental shifts, it will become ever harder for activists on both sides to believe those who insist there really is something still to play for.