Carpetbagging

How Boebert's district switch could help Republicans

She's been accused of carpetbagging, but Boebert's controversial past had threatened the GOP's hold on her red-leaning seat.

STEVEN SHEPARD

Rep. Lauren Boebert’s decision to switch districts ahead of next year's election might not secure the controversial Colorado Republican a third term in Congress, but it should boost the GOP’s chances to retain control of her seat.

Boebert won reelection last year by the narrowest of margins: 546 votes, or less than two-tenths of a percentage point. That’s despite holding a vast, mostly rural seat — Colorado’s 3rd District — that voted for then-President Donald Trump by 8 percentage points in 2020.

The 2024 tea leaves: There were signs that 2024 could have been even more difficult for her. The Democrat whom Boebert defeated last year, Adam Frisch, a former member of Aspen’s city council, was back for another run — and cashing in on Boebert’s outsized profile and ignominy to raise $8.6 million already as of the end of September.

That makes Frisch the top-raising challenger anywhere in the country. Only soon-to-retire Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), the former House speaker ousted by a majority of the chamber, had raised more through September among all congressional candidates, incumbents or otherwise.

Boebert was also facing a Republican primary challenger, attorney Jeff Hurd, who had establishment support from figures like former Colorado Gov. Bill Owens.

Boebert’s new home?: Boebert, who has collected $3.2 million so far this year and ended September with $1.4 million in cash on hand, will instead seek reelection in the state’s 4th District.

While the two districts share a border, their population centers are far apart. The 3rd District is mostly based in Colorado’s Western Slope, the name generally given to areas west of the Continental Divide. The 4th District, which will be an open seat following the retirement announcement of GOP Rep. Ken Buck, encompasses the eastern third of the state.

The 4th District is also more Republican: Trump carried it by 19 points in 2020. But there was already a field of GOP candidates vying to succeed Buck who might not be scared off by Boebert, a newcomer to the district and its constituents.

Why it might work: Frisch said Wednesday night he’s plowing ahead with his campaign, but defeating a Republican without Boebert’s baggage — whether it’s feuds on the Hill or getting kicked out of a Denver production of “Beetlejuice” for inappropriate behavior with her date — might be more difficult, depending on the GOP nominee.

And every seat counts for both parties, with Republicans holding only a five-seat majority, which could drop to four if the party cedes the Long Island seat vacated by expelled former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.).

Meanwhile, Boebert has six months before the late June primary to introduce herself to her new district’s Republican voters. Those in the southern part of the district overlap with some of the media markets, like Colorado Springs and Pueblo, where she’s campaigned for her current seat.

But the rest of the new district, which borders Kansas, Nebraska and Wyoming, probably isn’t as familiar with her profile outside of the tabloid headlines.