Will get toasted...

Ron DeSantis has a problem in California

Eric Ting

In February, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was leading former President Donald Trump in polling for California’s 2024 Republican presidential primary. Now, he’s not only losing, but might have a difficult time regaining his footing, a new poll shows.

The Berkeley Institute of Government Studies poll, conducted among 1,472 Californians likely to vote in the March 2024 GOP primary, found Trump leading DeSantis 44% to 26%, and no other candidate receiving more than 4% support. In February, the same Berkeley poll had DeSantis leading Trump 37% to 29%.

What changed? For one, Trump was indicted in New York over an alleged hush money scheme involving payouts to women he reportedly had affairs with. Nationally, the indictment had the effect of improving his poll numbers among Republican voters, as the former president claimed political persecution and unfair treatment.

That messaging was apparently persuasive to California Republicans, as 67% of those surveyed by the pollster said that Trump’s public attacks on Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg are “understandable” because the former president is “justifiably angry.”

Nationally at least, there are signs that Trump’s post-indictment polling bump could fade. With DeSantis waiting until last week to formally declare his candidacy, it also stands to reason he could soon see a polling bump of his own. The Berkeley poll was conducted between May 17 and May 22; DeSantis declared May 24.

Still, an 18-percentage-point deficit is a large hole to be in, and the poll found that one of DeSantis’ key pitches to GOP voters — that he has a better chance of defeating President Joe Biden than Trump does — might mean nothing to voters in California’s primary. Just 26% of California Republicans said it was most important to nominate “the candidate with the best chance of defeating Joe Biden,” while 71% said it was most important to nominate “the candidate who best represents your opinions on the major issues facing the country.”

Recent history supports the theory that California Republicans don’t particularly care about which candidates have the best chances of winning a general election. In the 2022 gubernatorial primary, the party’s voters largely backed Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle over independent Michael Shellenberger even though it was obvious at the time — and remains the case today — that statewide candidates with an “R” label are dead on arrival in a state where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans 2-1 (call it the Paper Bag Theorem of California politics).

Then there was the Gavin Newsom recall race. California Republicans overwhelmingly supported controversial radio host Larry Elder — and Newsom used Elder’s large polling lead to make the race a referendum on the modern Republican Party, as opposed to a referendum on his own record as governor. He then defeated the recall effort easily.

DeSantis’ slow-motion entry into the 2024 race has also left him open to months of unchallenged attacks from Trump, who has apparently succeeded in driving the governor’s favorability ratings down in California. In February, 54% of the state’s GOP voters said they had a “strongly favorable” opinion of DeSantis, but that’s down to 43% now. One silver lining for DeSantis is that his unfavorability rating only increased from 11% to 15%, which is still a better figure than Trump’s mark of 23% unfavorability among the California GOP.

We’re still a long way out from March 2024, and there’s plenty of time for DeSantis to recover, but he’s in a considerably worse position now than he was just three months ago.