Update #1

Sydney-hobart update #1

From Ailing Anarchy

After 24 hours the Sydney-Hobart ‘battle of the big swinging dicks’ churned on with the leading group of four supermaxis already well past the half-race-distance mark. 

AndooComanche, which had been roaring South at 20+ knots had ‘slowed’ to 16. They held a gradually diminishing lead of 10 miles over Law Connect, Wild Oats XI and Black Jack and must now be seriously thinking about covering tactics – at least until they reach the unpredictable ‘dead zone’ at Tasman Island.

But what about the real race – the IRC battle for the overall winner? That was being fought out 100 miles further back. And, as expected, it’s become a tight, head-to-head battle among the TP52s.

On scratch, all 10 places between 12th and 21st are currently filled by TPs. Caro from New Zealand leads that group, followed by Gweilo, Celestial, Warrior Won and Crush. But on IRC the order is different: Crush, Gweilo, Celestial, Quest, Zen and then Caro. 

How so? Because the TPs are a box rule development class, not a one-design. No two are identical. The designers and boat whisperers exploit every wrinkle in the IRC rules to reduce their TCFs to the absolute minimum. 

Thus, within this year’s Sydney-Hobart fleet we have a range that stretches from Koa (1.348) to Caro (1.416). Over a 628nm race, that difference on corrected time can be crucial. For example, while Caro now leads Gweilo on the track by 1 mile she is five places behind her on handicap. No wonder the general public struggles to understand offshore racing!

At present the only obvious danger to the eventual overall winner not coming from the pack of TPs is Alive, the 2006 Reichel/Pugh that won in 2018. The closer this well-sailed 66-footer comes to her home Tasmanian waters the more likely she is to work her way up the IRC standings.

As to Sailing Anarchy’s pre-race tip Sunrise, the lack of any windward work has just about destroyed her chances. The UK boat is currently in 48th place on scratch and 30th on handicap. So much for our expert predictions.

– anarchist David