8 billion reasons

Climate change: 8 billion reasons to worry

By ARIANNA SKIBELL

The number of people who stand to bear the brunt from climate change just got bigger.

According to a new estimate from the United Nations, 8 billion people are living on the planet now, up from 7 billion in 2010. Most of that growth is happening in poorer nations that have contributed the least to the climate crisis — and yet are vulnerable to its impacts and lack the resources to adapt to a warming world.

Key to adaptation: sustainable, affordable energy.

“Ensuring that people have affordable access to clean energy, water and education is going to be key for these countries to be able to adapt to the hardest climate change impacts,” said Vanessa Pérez-Cirera, the director of the World Resources Institute’s Global Economics Center. “Still, the greatest consumption of resources per capita is coming from the North.”

While U.S. population growth has slowed dramatically and its greenhouse gas emissions have fallen since 2005, the country is still one of the world’s leading carbon polluters, second only to China. Populations are also growing slowly or even declining in other wealthy, industrialized countries that have contributed mightily to the globe’s warming for more than a century.

But meeting the world’s climate targets means all countries need to move away from burning fossil fuels for energy, the main cause of human-driven climate change. Helping poorer countries make the switch is a key focus of the international climate summit happening in Egypt this week — as is paying reparations for the climate damage they have already incurred, a major flashpoint in the talks.

More than half of projected population increases are concentrated in eight countries already grappling with climate-fueled disasters: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.

India, which is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country next year, experienced a deadly heat wave this spring that disproportionately affected the millions of people who lack air conditioning. In Pakistan, nearly 2,000 people died this year after massive flooding inundated the country.

Overall, the rate of global growth is slowing, and the world’s population is expected to peak at 10.4 billion by century’s end. The challenge is the speed of change in a world still heavily reliant on fossil fuels. The hurdle for poorer countries to transition to cleaner power is greater.

Pérez-Cirera said that in the past 20 years, only 2 percent of renewable investment has gone to Africa, contributing to delays in planned adaptation projects. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to contribute more than half the anticipated population increase through 2050, according to the United Nations.

“When you hear that, it’s really a wake up call,” she said.