Poll says.....

Gavin Newsom is a stronger 2024 presidential candidate than Kamala Harris, poll says

Eric Ting

With California Gov. Gavin Newsom continuing his foray into national politics by running ads in Florida, it was only a matter of time until he was included in 2024 general election polling.

A recently released Yahoo News/YouGov survey conducted between June 24-27 polled hypothetical 2024 matchups between President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and Newsom on the Democratic side against former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on the Republican side.

The poll found Biden leading Trump 42% to 40% and DeSantis 41% to 37%. It found Harris tied with Trump 41% to 41%, but matched Biden's margin against DeSantis at 41% to 37%. 

Finally, it found Newsom beating Trump 40% to 39% and DeSantis 39% to 36%. In every single matchup polled, there are lots of undecided voters. The smallest number of undecided voters is seen in the Harris-Trump matchup (18%), and the largest number is seen in Newsom vs. DeSantis (25%).

The poll suggests Newsom would be a stronger general election candidate than Harris. When running against Trump, Newsom not only fares better than Harris does (albeit narrowly), but he also has more room to grow (21% of voters said they were undecided in the Newsom-Trump matchup compared to 18% who said the same in the Harris-Trump matchup).

For those who point to Harris beating DeSantis by four percentage points in the poll while Newsom beats him by three, consider the massive number of undecided voters in all of the DeSantis matchups. Because DeSantis is a relatively undefined figure at the national level — especially when compared to Biden, Harris and Trump — all of the hypothetical races involving the Florida governor have more than 20% of survey respondents unable to choose a candidate. Having so many undecided voters makes it difficult to read too much into the results.

That's especially true when DeSantis runs against Newsom — another relatively undefined national figure — and neither candidate is able to top 40% support in the poll. 

In other words, it's best to use matchups vs. Trump to gauge a Democratic candidate's general election strength. And this poll shows Newsom would fare better than Harris would, though not by much.