Enters decisive phase

Sweden’s NATO debate enters decisive phase

Leading figures in governing Social Democratic Party begin consultation period.

BY CHARLIE DUXBURY

Sweden’s debate over NATO membership moved into a higher gear on Friday with a meeting of the governing Social Democratic Party’s leaders to discuss a potential application to join the military alliance. 

The six-hour meeting in Stockholm of the party’s governing body marked the start of what is expected to be a roughly four-week consultation period before the Social Democrats make a final decision, which is expected on or around May 24. 

More in-person gatherings of the party’s leadership are planned as well as online debates with local party members. 

“It’s very important and positive that we gather for talks like we are doing today,” Environment Minister Annika Strandhäll told reporters on her way into the meeting in the parliament building. “We also have a dialogue underway in the party to allow members to be part of the discussion,” she said. 

The outcome of the Social Democrats’ internal talks will in all likelihood be decisive for whether or not Sweden applies to join NATO, in what would be the country’s biggest foreign policy shift since EU accession in 1995. 

While Sweden’s three center-right opposition parties swung behind joining the Western defense alliance — and its central concept of mutual defense — several years ago, the Social Democrats have remained skeptical, blocking any move toward accession. 

Leading Social Democrat figures — from Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist to Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson — have so far declined to comment on whether they have changed their mind in light of Russia’s attack on Ukraine and would now back joining. 

But there have been hints that the party’s opposition to such a move is softening. 

“There is clearly a time before and after February 24,” Andersson said in a recent speech, referring to the date of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

A survey by the pollster Novus published this week showed 51 percent support among the Swedish public for a NATO application.

Following Finland

Developments in Sweden echo a similar process underway in neighboring Finland where Social Democratic Prime Minister Sanna Marin is set to formally announce her party’s position on a NATO application in the coming weeks. 

Statements by leading Social Democrats in the Finnish parliament this week suggested Marin’s party favors an application to join and that the country could take the step before the summer. 

“We in Finland have not formally made a decision but it is already clear that there is a large majority in parliament which wants to see Finland join NATO quite quickly,” said Erkki Tuomioja, a Finnish Social Democrat and former foreign minister, during a visit to Stockholm this week. 

Finland published a policy document covering the pros and cons of NATO membership last week, which led to calls from Swedish opposition lawmakers for Sweden to speed up.

On Thursday, the Swedish government said a cross-party report on defense policy — including a discussion of NATO membership — would be released on May 13 instead of May 31.

The Social Democrats’ digital meetings with local members are set to be held on May 9, 10 and 12 while a range of senior party figures, including Foreign Minister Ann Linde and her predecessor Margot Wallström, will hold speeches for local party groups.

“They have been selected because they are central figures who have respect and credibility in our party, and also because they know about this issue,” Social Democrat Party Secretary Tobias Baudin said on Friday.