Scrambles to replenish...

Pentagon scrambles to replenish weapons stocks sent to Ukraine

Lawmakers want the U.S. to make more missiles, but companies will wait until they have contracts before cranking up production.

By LEE HUDSON, PAUL MCLEARY and CONNOR O’BRIEN

The Pentagon is rushing to replace thousands of U.S.-made Javelin and Stinger missiles pulled from European and American stockpiles for use in Ukraine. But the multibillion-dollar effort is still waiting on the military and defense industry to figure out how to ramp up production quickly.

Congress has declared it’s all-in on the restocking effort, forking over $3.5 billion to the Pentagon this month alone as part of a $1.5 trillion government spending package. What’s still unclear is how and when the Pentagon will spend that money.

The exact number of Javelins and Stingers sent to Ukraine is difficult to estimate since most countries have been vague about the size of their contribution. But open-source data indicates the U.S. has sent about 1,400 Stingers and 4,600 Javelins. Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia also pulled from their own stockpiles, along with 200 Stingers from the Netherlands and 500 from Germany. Several European countries have also sent thousands of their own shoulder-launched anti-armor weapons to aid in the fight.

The rush to identify how to keep eastern NATO allies supplied with the anti-aircraft and anti-armor weapons — which have gained newfound relevance facing down the Russian war machine in Ukraine — presents a significant test for the Pentagon, which for the past several years has promised it was becoming more nimble in its dealings with the defense industry and moving to fill its gaps more quickly.

According to two people involved in the conversations between industry and the DoD, who requested anonymity to speak about discussions still on the table, there are two main hurdles to quickly increasing missile production. First, the hundreds of small suppliers that form the backbone of the industrial base are working to locate the required components to build new missiles, including rare earth materials and electrical components that can be difficult to source quickly.

Second, companies are also waiting to ensure funding is locked in before investing in increasing production capacity, over worries that investments in raw materials and manufacturing capability won’t be paid for.

Companies that rush ahead without a formal contract from the Defense Department would likely “get hammered by Wall Street” analysts for spending without the guarantee of compensation, said William Greenwalt, nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a defense industry expert.

Pentagon leadership is also considering whether to invoke the Defense Production Act to put the pedal to the floor on restocking the weapons. Using the tool would allow defense-related contracts to cut the line and receive required components ahead of other domestic industries such as automobile manufacturing.

But no decision has been made yet as officials are considering whether invoking it would be “applicable or prudent” to the missile issue, Pentagon spokesperson Jessica Maxwell told POLITICO.

The Defense Production Act was used during the height of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, when the DoD was scrambling to develop, design and build vehicles that could withstand roadside bombs, Greenwalt noted.

At the time, there was a steel shortage and the authority allowed defense contractors to get supplies ahead of other industries. DoD also tapped Israel and Sweden to acquire steel to build these vehicles.

The production lines for Javelins and Stingers are still active, but ramping up and possibly expanding those lines will take time, effort and money, so the Pentagon is still working on “exploring options to more quickly replenish U.S. inventories, and backfill depleted stocks of allies and partners,” Maxwell said.

A partnership between Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies makes the anti-tank Javelin. Raytheon manufactures the Stinger, which shoots down aircraft.

A Lockheed spokesperson noted the company works closely with the U.S. government on foreign military sales, adding “Discussions about sales to foreign governments are best addressed by the U.S. government.” Raytheon Technologies declined to comment.

The companies generally have the capacity to increase the rate of manufacturing Javelins, but one person involved in the process says they would do so only after funding from the government comes through.

The issue came up during a hearing for President Joe Biden’s nominee to oversee Pentagon acquisition efforts on Tuesday. William LaPlante told senators that speeding up weapons and equipment to Ukraine and replenishing depleted military stocks will be a “day one” priority if he’s confirmed.

Pressed by ranking member Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) about whether Congress should make “one-time investments” to expand munition production, LaPlante backed a cash infusion to spur production lines for munitions, drones and other programs.

In the near-term, however, “it’s not just a ‘hot production line’ but the parts that go into that production line,” said Arnold Punaro, National Defense Industrial Association board chair. Keeping those factory lines moving also demands consistent, predictable funding, which is something that Congress has been unable to guarantee as each successive fiscal year begins with stopgap funding bills as lawmakers wrangle with the budget’s particulars.

Some top lawmakers have already telegraphed that they’re ready to approve money now to speed up work to replace the stocks.

House Armed Services Chair Adam Smith (D-Wash.) and top Republican Mike Rogers of Alabama turned up the heat on the Pentagon last week to field a new cheap anti-aircraft missile system to replace U.S. and European stocks of Stinger missiles sent to Ukraine. The pair promised in a letter to “favorably consider” a request to shift money within the Pentagon budget to immediately kick off the effort.

“We believe this is a matter of the highest urgency,” the lawmakers wrote to Pentagon brass. “Events in Europe have demonstrated the importance of such a capability and the need for the Army and Marine Corps to develop a plan to invigorate the industrial base, buy-down strategic risk in our current capability, and accelerate the development of a follow-on [short-range air defense] system that can be rapidly fielded.”

There are other capabilities in play, as well. Last week, POLITICO first reported that the U.S. was sending 100 Switchblade drones to Ukraine, which will likely be sourced from existing Army stocks with the potential for more if the Ukrainians can use them effectively — and European allies are looking for assurances that Washington will backfill any air defense capabilities they send to Ukraine.

Biden announced a new $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine on March 16, which included 800 more Stinger anti-aircraft systems, 2,000 anti-armor Javelins, 1,000 light anti-armor weapons and 6,000 AT-4 anti-armor systems. The AT-4 is a lightweight recoilless rifle already used by U.S. special operations forces.

“We’re gonna do everything we can to get them as much support as fast as possible,” a senior DoD official told reporters Monday. “That includes talking to allies and partners about long-range air defense systems that [Ukrainians] know how to use.”

Those systems would likely include older Russian-made capabilities such as S-300 and SA-8 mobile air defenses. Bulgaria and Slovakia, who field those systems, are unwilling to part with them without guarantees of getting newer air defenses to replace them.