German election wish list

Emmanuel Macron’s German election wish list

The vote is a chance for the French president to increase his sway in the EU — but he still needs a partner in Berlin, quickly.

BY RYM MOMTAZ

Emmanuel Macron doesn’t have to worry too much about who becomes Germany’s next chancellor.

Of much more concern to the French president is how long it takes Angela Merkel’s successor to form a coalition government after Sunday’s general election and who ends up in other key posts.

The election provides an opportunity for Macron to increase his standing in the EU as Merkel bows out after 16 years in power. The French president will be more experienced as a national leader than whoever becomes chancellor. In that sense, he will be the senior partner in the Franco-German relationship that drives the EU, even as Berlin remains the economic heavyweight.

But French officials know they won’t get much done as long as Germany is in post-election limbo while parties try to reach a coalition deal.

And with the clock ticking until France starts its six-month EU Council presidency on January 1, and until Macron’s presumed run for re-election in April, Paris is eager to have a new partner in place sooner rather than later.

Macron’s team learned first-hand four years ago of the frustration German politics can cause. The French leader was elected in May 2017 but could do little to retool the Franco-German engine until Germany had held its general election in the fall and spent months in protracted coalition talks.

“You’re never strong alone in Europe,” said France’s Europe Minister Clément Beaune. “If you’re comfortable in your seat and you have no close negotiating partner, it’s not really very useful. We understood this in 2017. We can’t do without Germany, and Germany can’t do without France.”

Those close to Macron say he doesn’t have much of a preference among the candidates to succeed Merkel as chancellor.

That’s because the two leading contenders, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats (SPD) and Armin Laschet from the chancellor’s center-right CDU, are both well known to French officials and well disposed toward a close working relationship with Paris. In a sign of the value they place on the Franco-German axis, both men visited Macron in Paris in the closing weeks of the campaign.

As finance minister, Scholz has cooperated closely with his French counterpart Bruno Le Maire. He’s viewed in Paris as having played a significant role in Germany’s historic decision to back European common debt to find the Continent’s economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

Laschet, who speaks French, was involved in coordinating aspects of the coronavirus pandemic, and heads Franco-German cultural cooperation in Germany.

Even the third chancellor candidate, the Greens’ Annalena Baerbock — whose chances of clinching the top job have faded but who is very likely to be part of the next government — is not a complete unknown.

Macron spent three hours at dinner with Baerbock and fellow party leader Robert Habeck on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in February last year. And French officials made it known Macron would have been happy to meet her during the election campaign too.

But a friendly face emerging as the winner from Sunday’s election will only bring limited cheer to the Elysée palace.

“Beyond the personality of the next chancellor, we are looking at the types of coalitions and the time it will take for parties to reach an agreement on a coalition, as well as on the division of portfolios,” an adviser to Macron said.

Coalition talks could be long and difficult, eating into time that Paris would like to use to prepare and execute plans for its EU presidency. For the first time, three different political forces are likely to be needed to form a German government — and no such combination comes without major obstacles.

Paris plans to play a discreet but proactive part during the negotiations.

“While striking the right balance, and not overstepping, we need to play a role during the coalition negotiating period, by being in touch with the parties and discussing the issues that are important for France and the EU,” said Beaune — who did exactly that in 2017 when he visited Berlin with Le Maire.

Personalities and policies

French officials won’t just be looking at the issues. They’ll also be watching closely who gets key posts such as finance minister.

Christian Lindner of the liberal Free Democrats has made clear he wants that job for himself. And Lindner is a staunch opponent of some of the ideas France cherishes most — such as making common European debt a permanent feature of the EU and relaxing debt and deficit rules.

More broadly, French officials are anxious to see how engaged a new German government will be in international affairs, and whether it will embrace Macron’s vision of strategic autonomy — Europe playing a more independent role on the world stage.

“After the shock of what happened in Afghanistan, the question is will Germany move toward a more strategic path, or will it turn in on itself?” said a high-level French diplomat.  “At this stage, it’s very hard to predict which party would be more engaged strategically.”

The combination of personalities and policies that emerges from the coalition talks will have a major bearing on how successful Macron can be in pushing big-ticket changes to the EU like an increased emphasis on defense and instruments for common debt.

The SPD’s position on defense (seen in Paris as dovish) and the CDU’s position on European finance (hawkish) are among areas of concern.

The hope in Paris this time around, is that unlike 2017, a stable German government is formed by end of December — before the start of the French EU presidency.

“We will be awaiting a German partner who will be in a position to be productive, with established positions through its coalition contract [that] will open as many doors as possible for cooperation with France and European partners,” the adviser to Macron said.