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‘Florida is too important to blow off’: Late primary won’t dim state’s primary status

By MAYA KING and MATT DIXON

Florida Democrats are used to being wooed by presidential candidates hungry for endorsements and local fundraising early in primary season.

This year, the love is late in coming.

The state and its 219 party delegates have long enjoyed a front-row seat to electoral brawls. The 2020 election calendar, however, has dimmed the spotlight on the state’s celebrity after the Legislature, under pressure from national leaders of both parties, adopted a March 17 primary. By the time that date rolls around, 25 states and four U.S. territories already will have voted and nearly half the Democratic Party’s 4,051 delegates will be spoken for.

But a crowded Democratic field and an expected split in early voting states could inject some adrenaline into Florida after its sleepy start in the presidential election. Democratic front-runners Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden — and deep-pocketed, not-so-front-runners Michael Bloomberg and Tom Steyer — slowly have begun making their presence felt in the state.

“Florida has become the familiar stomping grounds for candidate’s third cousins, spouses, and siblings,” political strategist Screven Watson joked about this year’s election cycle so far. But he predicts that candidates will be forced to eat their political vegetables and spend more time in the Sunshine State in coming months.

“When it becomes showtime, Florida is too important to blow off,” said Watson, an unaffiliated Democrat. “Like the annual trip to the dentist, they will begrudgingly show up.”

It’s a truism that Florida is the nation’s biggest swing state—Democrats are aiming to block President Donald Trump’s path to a second term here.

But the primary this cycle will come two weeks after Super Tuesday, thanks to a dispute years in the making.

In 2008, the Democratic National Committee stripped Florida of its party delegates after the Republican-controlled Florida Legislature jumped the gun by scheduling a January primary. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama pledged not to campaign in the state during their battle that year. In 2012, Florida again scheduled its primary at the end of January.

But in 2013, the state bowed to party wishes, passing legislation that moved its primary to mid-March on Super Tuesday II, avoiding further ire from both parties’ national committees while preserving the state’s must-win reputation.

Outside of the first Democratic debate in Miami in June, Democratic candidates so far have made few campaign stops in the state. In October, not a single contender attended the party’s annual Leadership Blue event.

And the surrogates who did attend were underwhelming. California Sen. Kamala Harris, who has since dropped out of the race, sent her husband, Douglas. South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg also dispatched his husband, Chasten, who ended up addressing state party heavyweights via FaceTime from an Alabama airport after he had difficulty getting to Orlando.

But even as candidates focus on do-or-die early states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, Florida’s trove of delegates could be enough to solidify a frontrunner or shift the odds in a closely contested race after Super Tuesday.

That’s why Warren is building a staff infrastructure across Florida’s 67 counties. Biden has hustled for legislative endorsements and held South Florida fundraisers while his wife Jill has stumped in the Panhandle. Bloomberg has spent $10.5 million in television ads in Florida since he entered the race four weeks ago. Steyer is advertising, too.

“It’s so difficult to even play in Florida unless you have the resources,” said state Sen. Annette Taddeo (D-Miami). “With so many states ahead of Florida and with Biden having such a huge advantage when it comes to recognition, I think that that’s part of the reason why.”

Bloomberg on Dec. 20 hired 170 staffers in March primary states including Florida, where he tapped Brandon Miller to be state director. Miller is a former chief of staff to the Democratic National Committee and managed the campaign of Andrew Gillum, who lost his 2018 run for Florida governor.

“Florida will have a big role to play because it’s a very crowded Democratic field. You have some [campaigns] only competing in states outside of the first four,” said Ashley Walker, state director of For Our Future Florida, a progressive nonprofit that organizes Democratic grassroots efforts.

“That is shaking up the calendar and the more traditional way of thinking,” Walker said.

Florida Democrats interviewed by POLITICO said the characteristics of this year’s primary could make the state a kingmaker.

One reason: The four early states could fail to deliver a front runner headed into Super Tuesday. Based on Real Clear Politics’ average of polls, Buttigieg holds a 2-point lead in Iowa, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has 1.3-point lead in New Hampshire and Biden is up by 18 points in South Carolina and 8 points in Nevada.

“This year, the way it is shaping up, it is going to make Florida very much in play,” said Eric Johnson, a longtime South Florida Democratic operative. “It looks like we could come out of Super Tuesday without clarity. Right now, there quite possibly could be different winners in each of the early states.”

Juan Peñalosa, executive director of the Florida Democratic Party, pointed to the strong grassroots presence Warren, Buttigieg and other candidates have in the state as evidence of Florida’s importance. It’s also a good place for courting swing voters, a constituency key to winning in the state and setting up a roadblock to a Trump victory in November.

“I would argue that the late nature of Florida’s primary actually makes it even better for our state,” Peñalosa said. “We are growing. And a March primary comes at exactly the right time for our field operation in terms of kicking it up a notch right before the election.”