Crank up pressure on budget vote

Fearing defections, Trump and McConnell crank up pressure on budget vote

The majority leader warned Republicans that they can't leave town until the budget deadlines and debt ceiling are addressed.

By BURGESS EVERETT, JOHN BRESNAHAN and SARAH FERRIS

Senate Republican leaders and President Donald Trump are working to whip up support for their bipartisan, $2.7 trillion budget deal, hoping to stave off embarrassing defections ahead of a vote that’s splitting the party.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Majority Whip John Thune are trying to win over undecided rank-and-file senators to avoid a replay of last week’s effort in the House, when roughly two-thirds of House Republicans opposed the deal, according to multiple senators and aides. Trump is “strategically” making calls to on-the-fence members, Thune said.

McConnell delivered a firm message to his caucus on Tuesday during lunch at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, warning them they cannot leave town until the budget and looming debt ceiling deadline has been addressed, according to three sources familiar with the meeting. McConnell also said the chamber will not recess without passing something.

McConnell and Thune’s goal is to get at least 27 of the caucus’ 53 members to support the deal, a majority of the Republican-controlled Senate that would combine with most of the Democratic Caucus to push the deal over the top. That Republican number may be aspirational given the party’s antipathy for new spending, but Thune said he was “hopeful” he could meet it.

“The goal is to win and I’m confident that when the time comes we’ll be there. But it’s a process, obviously, and we’ve got a lot of our members for whom this is a hard vote. But I think for a lot of reasons it makes sense and in the end we’ll have the critical mass to get it over the finish line,” Thune said in an interview. “We’re working it.”

GOP leaders believe that a significant bloc of Senate Democrats, including those running for president, will not support the deal. That would require even more GOP votes to handily pass the budget deal. The deal requires 60 votes to pass the Senate.

Asked about the level of support in his party, McConnell would say only that the budget deal “will have to pass this week.” The Senate is scheduled to leave for a month-long recess at the end of the week.

"It's the easiest thing in the world to vote no on something like this," said Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who supports the agreement. "It's harder to do the responsible thing.”

But the no votes are piling up, joining a handful of Senate Republicans like Mitt Romney of Utah who came out last week against the massive budget deal would raise the debt ceiling for two years and set spending at $320 billion above previously set levels. Florida Sens. Marco Rubio and Sen. Rick Scott said Tuesday they will oppose the deal. Sen. Pat Toomey, a fiscal conservative from Pennsylvania, also has said he will oppose it, and Sens. Tim Scott of South Carolina and Mike Crapo of Idaho lean no, they said.

"While I voted in 2011 against the [budget caps agreement], the fact of the matter is we're getting ready to blow the caps and end them forever, which might be enough reason by itself" to vote no, said Tim Scott, who supported the 2018 bipartisan budget agreement.

“This thing may taste like pumpkin pie. But I’m not voting for it,” said Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana.

"I will be a no on that deal," Toomey said. "One of my biggest concerns is the suspension of the debt ceiling without any kind of corresponding efforts of any kind to put us a sustainable fiscal path."

Sen. David Perdue spoke with Trump about rejecting a similar budget last year. But now Perdue is playing a different role, trying to round up support for the deal struck by Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

“I’m disappointed it’s not 100 percent [support],” Perdue said in an interview, arguing that voting against the budget leads to billions in extra in spending. “Anybody who thinks that they’re spending less by voting no on this thing, just doesn't know … a no vote means you’re going to spend more.”

Then there are the 16 senators who signed on to Perdue's letter urging the Trump administration to cut a budget deal and avoid sequestration or a continuing resolution. While that group got what it wanted, it’s not exactly a beacon of support for the deal. Of those signees, Crapo leans no, James Lankford of Oklahoma and Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee oppose the deal and Joni Ernst of Iowa and Thom Tillis of North Carolina are undecided.

“On the one hand we've got to make sure we provide enough certainty, particularity around defense. On the other hand, we ought to start having a serious discussion around our debt,” Tillis said.

Ernst said she wants to speak to the president, suggesting he could help push the bill across the finish line. Wyoming Sen. Mike Enzi, the Senate’s Budget chairman, said cryptically: “I’m the chairman of the Budget Committee. I don’t talk about the budget unless I have an announcement to make.”

Besides suspending the debt limit through the next presidential election, the deal also permanently ends the threat of sequestration, the Obama-era budget austerity law that ultimately failed to constrict federal spending.

But many Republicans have grimaced at the idea of abolishing Congress’s stiff budget caps without another attempt to constrain the deficit, at a time when the federal government is set to borrow $1 trillion for the second year in a row. Less than a quarter of the new spending is paid for, and those offsets — which were just half of what White House officials had sought — are unlikely to ever take effect. Just 65 of 197 House Republicans supported the deal last week.

Senate Republican leaders and the White House are most worried about converting Tillis, Ernst and Sens. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Dan Sullivan of Alaska and Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi, according to multiple senators.

A source familiar with Cotton's thinking said he was likely going to oppose the deal but is not talking about his concerns publicly "out of deference" to Trump and GOP leaders.

The whipping efforts are working in some quarters. Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) said he is on board, as did Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.).

"I am concerned that we're making sure we're doing right by our military and our veterans," said Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who is voting yes on the bill. "I am concerned we do not want to see either another government shutdown or issues with the debt limit."

Senate Appropriations Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) said he didn’t know whether a majority of the Republicans would vote for the deal.

“As long as we win, it won’t be embarrassing. If they fail to pass that bill, it would be a huge setback for everybody. Mainly for the military. What do we do next? We’re staring at sequestration,” Shelby said.

Typically, the longer budget deals hang out in Congress, the more opposition they attract. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) argued the chamber should vote on Tuesday, unlikely given the stern objections among conservatives who can delay a quick vote on the bill.

“I believe we should do this today. It's the most important thing we can do. Secretary Mnuchin has said there is a danger to the debt defaulting,” Schumer said.