Russian River above flood stage

'Evacuate now': Russian River forecast to swell 14 feet above flood stage

By Amy Graff

Under a relentless torrent of rainfall, the Russian River is quickly rising toward its banks and forecast to reach nearly 14 feet above flood stage by late Wednesday.

If the river swells to this level, it will be the worst flooding in more than 24 years. Large swaths of the small town of Guerneville, and the neighboring communities of Rio Nido and Monte Rio, will be under water.

The Sonoma County Sheriff's Office issued mandatory evacuations Tuesday afternoon in communities along the Russian River and urged people to "evacuate now." In the evacuation notice, the sheriff's office noted the Russian River is forecast to exceed flood stage at 7 p.m. Tuesday, but forecasters with the National Weather Service announced just after 5:30 p.m. that the river had already reached flood stage, at 32 feet.

As of 9:32 p.m., the river had reached 35.1 feet.

Communities under mandatory evacuation include Guerneville, Jenner, Jintown, Korbel, Duncan Mills, Monte Rio and Wilson Beach. (See the full list.)

Monte Rio Elementary School could flood, as well as the Safeway, post office and the downtown strip of Guerneville. Dozens of roads would be covered in water, including Highway 116 west of Guerneville and River Road.

Shelters are available at the Sebastopol Center and the Sonoma County Fairgrounds Grace Pavilion (more info).

Sonoma County announced multiple school closures for Wednesday including the Alexander Valley, Forestville, Guerneville, Geyserville, Harmony and Monte Rio districts. El Molino High School, Montgomery Elementary and West County Charter Middle School will also be closed.

On Tuesday afternoon, roads were already beginning to flood. Residents can check SoCoemergency.org to see which areas are forecast to flood or call 707-565-3856 for more information.

Sonoma County has sat directly under the bull's-eye of a drenching atmospheric river; the band of moisture stretches from just east of the Hawaiian Islands.

The area has had eye-popping rainfall totals of well over five inches in the last 24 hours, and the mountain community of Venado near the Russian River have gotten over 12 inches since the start of the story.

The storm is forecast to deliver another two to four inches in North Bay valleys Tuesday through Wednesday, and four to seven inches in the hills and on mountain tops.

The water is pouring down the hillsides of Sonoma County into the Russian River. The river has risen more than 16 feet since Monday morning.

The southward-flowing waterway is forecast to reach flood stage at 32 feet Tuesday night and peak at 46.1 feet at 11 p.m. Wednesday, that's 14.1 feet above flood stage.

The river last saw notable flooding in 2017 when it reached 37.82 feet on Jan. 11.

Guerneville experienced the worst flooding in history on Feb. 18, 1986, when the river reached its highest level ever at 48.56 feet. The last time the Russian River neared that record was on Jan. 1, 1997, when it peaked at 44.99 feet. Two years prior, the river crested at 48.01 feet.

The river level projections come from the California Nevada River Forecast Center and are updated regularly. The Russian River forecast could change before Wednesday.