Shutdown Calculation

Hurricane Harvey Greatly Complicates The Government Shutdown Calculation

Stan Collender

Congress and the president almost certainly will agree to substantial additional federal funds for aid to the areas ravaged by Hurricane Harvey. That's as certain as anything can be in Washington these days.

What's not certain are the political games that will be played to get there from here.

In theory, providing funds for Hurricane Harvey relief should be quite easy. Fiscal 2018 begins on October 1 and some type of funding -- either individual appropriations or a continuing resolution (CR) -- will have to be enacted by then to avoid a government shutdown. In other words, there's an almost must-pass-and-must-sign legislative vehicle already in the works that can be used for Hurricane Harvey and adding those funds should make the CR even easier to enact.

Except that's not the case.

President Trump's vow that he'll veto the CR and shut down the government if money for his wall between the U.S. and Mexico isn't included is still in effect. In fact, it's noteworthy that he hasn't yet withdrawn or modified that threat in the face of the Harvey-caused destruction.

Trump may be thinking that adding the funds for his wall to a bill with Harvey relief will make it easier for him to get the dollars he wants. After all, would congressional Democrats, who so far have indicated they're adamantly against the wall, dare oppose a bill if funding for the wall and Harvey relief aid were combined?

But House and Senate Democrats almost certainly see this coming and are likely to announce very soon -- perhaps even this week -- that they insist that the hurricane relief funds be in a standalone bill rather than the CR and that this bill not include anything other than aid for Harvey victims. As a sweetener, they could ask that a Harvey relief bill be considered now rather than by the end of the month so that the aid can start flowing immediately.

That would put the White House in a political bind. If the president signed the standalone relief bill, he might be giving up what he considers to be the best chance at getting the funds for his wall. If he vetoed it, he would be delaying aid to Texas, Louisiana and everywhere else that will be affected by the storm and causing a great deal of voter and congressional GOP angst.