End his free fall

Sanders seeks to end his free fall

A win in Indiana would be a break from a week of bad headlines.

By Daniel Strauss

Indiana won’t have a dramatic effect on Bernie Sanders’ fortunes — win or lose, he’s said he’s fighting on through the convention. But a win Tuesday would be a much-needed respite from a week of headlines suggesting his campaign is sputtering and his path to the nomination is all but gone.

First came news of hundreds of staff layoffs. Then came word that his April fundraising had declined considerably compared to March — his haul dropped from $44 million to $26 million. The Northeastern primaries were unkind to him as well: Hillary Clinton won four of five states last week.

This week, though, all evidence points to a nailbiter in Tuesday’s only primary. Sanders has barnstormed the Indiana college campus circuit. Clinton has worked the state’s biggest cities, hoping to lock down the African-American vote.

She’s got strong support from the state’s top Democrats, but Sanders has an ace in the hole: Indiana’s open primary format means voters don’t have to be Democrats to participate in the Democratic primary. Open primaries are where Sanders shines: They helped grease his path to victory in Midwestern wins in Michigan and Wisconsin.

“It's close,” said former Indiana Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh, a top Clinton surrogate.

The Sanders campaign has focused on labor and the youth vote. Five of the seven events Sanders has done in the state have been on college campuses. And the college towns Sanders has visited are treasure troves of young voters: Indiana University (about 36,000 undergraduates), Purdue University (29,000), Indiana University — Purdue University Fort Wayne (14,000), the University of Southern Indiana (8,400) and University of Notre Dame (8,400).

"The college towns argument is like the old adage. You ask Willie Sutton, 'Why did you rob banks?' and he said, 'That's where the money is,'" Pete D'Alessandro, the Sanders campaign Indiana state director, said. "You go where the votes are."

Sanders is trying to replicate a key part of Obama's 2008 formula in the state. While Obama narrowly lost to Clinton by 2 points, he crushed her among voters 29 and younger — 61 percent to 39 percent. He won just 9 of the state’s 92 counties, but they tended to be the ones that were home to big universities.

Sanders' campaign has also sought to rally support from organized labor. On Friday, he visited Indianapolis where he railed against the parent company of Carrier Corp., which moved jobs from Indiana and closed factories around the state.

"Stop destroying the middle class in America! Respect your workers!" Sanders yelled at a state capitol rally.

Outsourcing is a powerful message focus for Sanders in Indiana, D'Alessandro said, and fits his larger critique of the country's "rigged economy."

"We thought that would resonate," D'Alessandro said. "Sadly, it resonates in Indiana because they've been hurt so bad by it."

Clinton — assisted by former President Bill Clinton and daughter, Chelsea — has spent much of her time in the state’s largest cities. All three made stops in the predominantly African-American city of Gary and in Indianapolis, where more than a quarter of the population is black.

"The Democratic base vote, for the most part, is African-Americans and women, and African-Americans make up a huge percentage of the [Indianapolis] vote," said Paul Tencher, the former campaign manager for Indiana Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly, said. "I think that African-Americans are not a liberal base for the most part. They're a solid Democratic vote, but as we've seen everywhere else, they're not Bernie's vote."

Like Sanders, Clinton has made sure to focus on issues surrounding manufacturing and labor; on Wednesday, she toured Munster Steel, where she laid out her plans to expand investment in American manufacturing companies.

Her Indiana effort is bolstered by widespread support among top Democratic elected officials, many from places she lost in 2008: South Bend Mayor Peter Buttigieg, Gary Mayor Karen Freeman-Wilson, and Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett. She’s also got the support of Donnelly, the state’s Democratic senator.

"Most, if not all, of the Democratic Party [in Indiana] is with Secretary Clinton," said Dan Parker, a former state Democratic Party chairman who's working with the Clinton campaign. "Every major elected official in the state has endorsed Secretary Clinton."

Clinton backers also argue the political bent of Indiana Democrats works in her favor — it more closely resembles Kentucky than Illinois, Indiana Democrats say. Bayh, the former senator, notes that many Democrats in southern Indiana “would consider themselves even slightly conservative on some things.”

"The old saying about Indiana is that it's the most Northern Southern state," Parker said.

The real divide among Democrats will be between urban Democrats and rural Democrats said Josh Peters, the political director for the Indianapolis Democratic Party in Marion County, who is unaligned in the primary.

"I think you're going to see the same kind of pattern emerge [as in 2008] where urban Democrats and [Democrats in] areas where there's more people of color are going to feel an affinity towards the Clintons and in counties like Marion, I expect Hillary Clinton to win," Peters said, noting that Obama won Marion County in 2008 even though he lost the state overall in the primary. "I think it's probably going to be a little bit of a reverse. It's funny this cycle Clinton seems to be doing better with the opposite voters as she did in '08. And so I think she'll win Marion County by kind of a moderate margin and then maybe barely lose the more outlying counties that are less populous but still probably win by maybe five [points] statewide. So I think it'll be close-ish, but not as close as 2008."