California poll

California poll: Trump leads GOP; Clinton, Sanders close

By Nick Gass

Donald Trump leads among likely California Republican primary voters months ahead of the state's June 7 contest, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are within single digits, according to the results of a survey from the Public Policy Institute of California released Wednesday evening.

The survey was conducted from March 6 to March 15, the final day of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s campaign. Rubio is thus included in the overall results, which find Trump with 38 percent support, followed by 19 percent for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and 12 percent each for the Florida senator and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Roughly 10 percent said they would vote for someone else, while 9 percent said they did not know.

With recalculated results including Rubio supporters’ second choice, Trump still has 38 percent, followed by 27 percent for Cruz and 14 percent for Kasich. Regardless, Trump leads likely Republican voters in every demographic and ideological group.

On the Democratic side, Clinton grabbed 48 percent to Sanders’ 41 percent, with 7 percent responding that they would vote for someone else and 4 percent unsure of whom they would vote for a little more than two months before the primary election.

The usual age, racial, ideological and gender gaps revealed in exit polls from past primary contests are on display in the latest survey as well. The former secretary of state leads Sanders 63 percent to 27 percent among likely voters 45 and older, but the Vermont senator leads 63 percent to 22 percent among likely voters aged 18 to 44. Among Latinos, Clinton leads 58 percent to 35 percent, but among whites, Sanders holds a 46 percent to 41 percent lead. Among those describing themselves as very liberal, Sanders leads 57 percent to 41 percent, while among people professing to be more moderate, Clinton leads 51 percent to 33 percent. Clinton also leads among women 54 percent to 35 percent, while Sanders leads among men 48 percent to 39 percent.

Californians likely to vote in their state’s Democratic primary indicated a higher share of satisfaction than their Republican or independent counterparts, with 65 percent describing themselves as satisfied with their choice of candidates. Among Republicans, just 46 percent responded the same way, compared with 34 percent of independents.

The poll was conducted with the support of the James Irvine Foundation, surveying 1,710 adults across the state with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. For the 1,385 registered voters surveyed, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. For the 1,039 likely voters, the margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, while the margin of error for the 529 likely Democratic primary voters is plus or minus 6.2 percentage points and the margin of error for the 321 likely Republican primary voters is plus or minus 7.3 percentage points.