From Times of India
With civil strife in Iraq showing no signs of abating, the political map of the Middle East looks headed for a serious reconfiguration. Rebel fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have continued their onslaught against Iraqi government forces, capturing towns, oil sites and important infrastructure as part of their push towards Baghdad. ISIL now controls large swathes of northwestern and western Iraq including the border with Syria. Reportedly, a unit of the Syrian branch of al-Qaida has pledged loyalty to ISIL, strengthening the latter's ambition of establishing an Islamic caliphate spanning both countries.
As things stand, Iraq is headed for a three-way split. The ongoing strife has allowed the Kurds in the country's north to strengthen their existing auto-nomy from Baghdad. And while ISIL's writ now runs in Sunni strongholds in Iraq's northern and central provinces, Shia-dominated, oil-rich areas in southern Iraq appear to be well fortified. With the US cautious about any kind of military intervention, the three regions could become independent, leading to the creation of a new Arab Sunni state comprising ISIL-controlled areas.
This would have serious implications for geopolitical alignments in the Middle East with one of two scenarios emerging. First, should the new Sunni Arab state continue to profess ISIL's radical ideology, an al-Qaida-inspired regime akin to Afghanistan's Taliban would take shape in one of the most sensitive regions of the world. This would spread the fires of Shia-Sunni conflict beyond Iraq and Syria and turn into a civil war within the Muslim world. Even if ISIL had Saudi Arabia's initial patronage, it would be a problem child for the Saudis as al-Qaida wants to destroy the Saudi monarchy.
For India and the rest of the world that depend on Middle Eastern oil, a radical Sunni state would be a nightmare for energy markets as well as security. However, ISIL leads a broad coalition of Sunni forces. In the event of Iraq's break-up, should relatively moderate elements take control of the new Sunni Arab state, the situation would stabilise in the long run. The international community would do well to plan for such an eventuality, exploring the possibility of stationing UN peacekeepers in post-break-up Iraq. With Iraq's blundering PM Nouri al-Maliki refusing to accede to a national unity government, the US and Iran should work together to stabilise the region and deal with new sovereign entities that may emerge.
As things stand, Iraq is headed for a three-way split. The ongoing strife has allowed the Kurds in the country's north to strengthen their existing auto-nomy from Baghdad. And while ISIL's writ now runs in Sunni strongholds in Iraq's northern and central provinces, Shia-dominated, oil-rich areas in southern Iraq appear to be well fortified. With the US cautious about any kind of military intervention, the three regions could become independent, leading to the creation of a new Arab Sunni state comprising ISIL-controlled areas.
This would have serious implications for geopolitical alignments in the Middle East with one of two scenarios emerging. First, should the new Sunni Arab state continue to profess ISIL's radical ideology, an al-Qaida-inspired regime akin to Afghanistan's Taliban would take shape in one of the most sensitive regions of the world. This would spread the fires of Shia-Sunni conflict beyond Iraq and Syria and turn into a civil war within the Muslim world. Even if ISIL had Saudi Arabia's initial patronage, it would be a problem child for the Saudis as al-Qaida wants to destroy the Saudi monarchy.
For India and the rest of the world that depend on Middle Eastern oil, a radical Sunni state would be a nightmare for energy markets as well as security. However, ISIL leads a broad coalition of Sunni forces. In the event of Iraq's break-up, should relatively moderate elements take control of the new Sunni Arab state, the situation would stabilise in the long run. The international community would do well to plan for such an eventuality, exploring the possibility of stationing UN peacekeepers in post-break-up Iraq. With Iraq's blundering PM Nouri al-Maliki refusing to accede to a national unity government, the US and Iran should work together to stabilise the region and deal with new sovereign entities that may emerge.
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