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My simple blog of pictures of travel, friends, activities and the Universe we live in as we go slowly around the Sun.



March 01, 2021

$1.9 trillion coronavirus aid package

House passes Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid package

The bill would send $1,400 stimulus checks to millions of Americans, boost unemployment payments and increase the Child Tax Credit.

By CAITLIN EMMA and SARAH FERRIS

The House approved President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic rescue plan in a 219 to 212 vote early Saturday morning, sending the measure to the Senate as Democrats race to pass it into law before boosted unemployment payments expire next month.

All but two Democrats supported the sprawling coronavirus relief package, with zero Republicans backing it — a major step toward enacting the White House’s first major legislative priority amid dueling public health and economic crises.

“The numbers speak volumes. 18 million Americans on unemployment. 24 million people are going hungry,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on the floor just before its passage. “The time for decisive action is long overdue.”

Days after the U.S. marked 500,000 deaths to the virus, the Democrats’ Covid aid bill would send $1,400 stimulus checks to millions of Americans, boost unemployment payments and increase the child tax credit. It would also provide billions of dollars in aid to small businesses, states and efforts to test for and vaccinate against the coronavirus.

But House GOP leaders, who kept their members in line against the bill, have argued the price tag is too high, with programs that are unrelated to fighting the virus.

If passed, the package will be one of the largest ever approved by Congress, and the fifth major piece of legislation approved since the pandemic began. It is the work of nearly a dozen House committees, conducted at a breakneck pace over the last 28 days.

“Yes this package is big, but the scale that families face is enormous,” Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) said early Saturday morning on the floor. “Half measures just won’t cut it.”

The Senate will take up the measure next week, where top Democrats will be forced to grapple with a major setback to Biden’s plan — their push to include a long-sought minimum wage increase has officially run afoul of the Senate’s arcane budget rules.

For now though, the House package still includes that federal minimum wage hike to $15 an hour, assuring minimal drama in the lower chamber, and forcing Senate Republicans to formally nix it next week.

The party’s maneuvering over the next two weeks could hardly have higher stakes: Every Senate Democrat will need to back the behemoth bill, with little time for a serious overhaul ahead of a critical federal jobless aid deadline on March 14. The House is expected to vote again on the Senate’s amended measure in two weeks, before sending it to Biden for his signature.

Democrats acknowledge they will likely need to ditch that push in order to pass its behemoth bill with a simple majority, though Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and others are still privately discussing legislative workarounds. One idea is to add language that would penalize large corporations that fail to pay workers at least $15 an hour.

Progressives, meanwhile, have demanded that Democrats overrule the parliamentarian’s decision, though many privately acknowledge it is a long shot and senior Democrats say it is unlikely.

"We will seek a solution consistent with Senate rules, and we will do so soon,” Pelosi said Friday night.

Some Democrats privately acknowledge that stripping out the $15-an-hour wage mandate is likely to ease passage in the Senate, where at least two members are publicly opposed. But it is also sure to complicate the math for Pelosi and her leadership team — who can only afford to lose a handful of votes on the floor.

The Democrats’ bill includes a long list of priorities that had been ignored by last year’s GOP-controlled Senate — including a historic increase in the child tax credit.

Democrats’ bill would almost double spending on the provision, increasing the maximum credit to as much as $3,600 for children under the age of 6 over the next year. People would also be allowed to claim it as a monthly payment rather than waiting until tax season — a kind of guaranteed minimum income for parents.

The bill also includes $350 billion for cash-strapped state and local governments, a huge priority for Pelosi after Republicans repeatedly stripped it out of last year’s bipartisan deals.

Education makes up another enormous section of the bill, including $130 billion for K-12 schools and $40 billion for colleges to help bring students back for in-classes.

Democrats have also devoted a huge chunk for housing — $30 billion in emergency rental assistance and programs for the homeless — as well as health care, with big increases in Obamacare tax credits through 2022.

“In all my years, I am really proud of what we did,” House Ways and Means Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.) said. “For those who ask, is this too much? The answer is no.”

But the two Democrats who opposed the measure, including centrist Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.), did criticize new spending for programs seen as unrelated to the pandemic or unnecessary for higher-income families, such as the expansion of the child tax credit.

“It’s not well thought through, not a lot of amendments were approved or allowed. I came here to legislate and I’m not being allowed to do that,” Schrader said in an interview this week. The other Democrat who opposed the bill was Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine).

But for the most part, Democrats are in lockstep behind their party's bill.

For Republicans, the vote also represented a major — and much-needed — moment of unity following months of bitter infighting following the deadly Jan. 6 riots.

House Minority Whip Steve Scalise said GOP leaders “worked overtime” to ensure that their troops stayed in line. That included numerous one-on-one conversations with Republicans who were on the fence and an all-out messaging campaign — pie charts and all — designed to paint the bill as stuffed with pork-barrel spending.

“It says a lot about GOP unity, that on something big like this, when President Biden and Nancy Pelosi shut Republicans out of the process, we will stick together,” Scalise said in an interview.

ISIS’ Chemical Weapons Operation

How the Pentagon Got Inside ISIS’ Chemical Weapons Operation—and Ended It

How shady reports of ISIS-made poison gas led the U.S. to a valuable ISIS weapon-maker, who helped bring the whole operation down.

By JOBY WARRICK

The Kurdish fighters dug in along Highway 47 in Kesik Kupri, Iraq, on January 23, 2015, could hear the truck from far off and knew the attack was coming. The defenders crouched behind their vehicles or squatted along a low ridge, rifles trained on the narrow road. From the ridge to the earthen barrier across the highway were perhaps 500 men, skilled veterans of Iraq’s Kurdish Peshmerga brigades as well as teenagers and elderly volunteers from neighboring villages who had come in their civilian coats, sneakers and checkered scarves to reclaim their homes from the men of ISIS. In two hard days of combat, they had seized a strategic crossroads and now effectively controlled the main route between the Iraqi city of Mosul and the Syrian frontier. The Islamists would do whatever they could to take it back.

The afternoon was nearly spent when the suicide vehicle appeared. The Kurds positioned along the ridge could see it clearly: a red farm truck with steel plates welded to the front for ramming and a trailer bed stacked high with metal tanks. The truck picked up speed as it approached the Kurdish line, and from the ridge the defenders unleashed a volley of rifle fire aimed at the passenger cabin. The fusillade kicked up rows of dust spouts in the nearby field, but some bullets found their mark, pinging against the cab and punching holes in some of the metal tanks. From the back of the truck came a ribbon of greenish smoke, like the contrail of a distant jet.

The dirt berm in the middle of the highway forced the driver to slow for a moment, and that was all the defenders needed. Two Kurdish fighters were waiting with a 35-pound antitank rocket, and they fired the projectile directly into the truck’s side. The vehicle disintegrated in an instant. When the smoke cleared, the truck’s twisted undercarriage lay on the asphalt 50 yards from the impact crater, and metal fragments and bits of the driver’s remains were scattered across the nearby fields.

The commanding officer, a Peshmerga colonel named Sabri, cautiously inspected the debris with a few of his aides. The men discovered that the metal tanks in the truck’s rear had blown clear of the vehicle when it exploded and landed haphazardly in the dirt. Some of the containers were leaking the same pale-green smoke the men had seen earlier. All around the leaking tanks the soil and grass bore a yellow coating, as though someone had spilled a jar of watery paint. A few men who ventured close to the damaged tanks detected a pungent odor and immediately fell ill.

Sabri could offer his men no protection other than surgical masks, which were useless, so he moved everyone back and radioed for help. Soon afterward, other Kurds arrived carrying respirators and sampling kits, the latter being used to scoop up a few grams of contaminated soil from around the leaking tanks. Weeks passed before the colonel learned precisely what had happened on that late January afternoon. ISIS had tried to break his line by means of a chemical bomb: a suicide truck loaded with 20 canisters of deadly chlorine gas.

The attack near the crossroads village of Kesik Kupri represented the first known attempt by the newly resurgent ISIS to use a chemical weapon in combat. It was a modest effort, causing no serious casualties and barely drawing notice outside northern Iraq. But its leaders had signaled their intentions to the Kurds, and to the world.

ISIS was officially in the business of using chemical weapons. And the United States, watching from afar, was just starting to think about how it should, or even could, respond.

***

From outside Iraq, it was hard to know what to make of reports of these apparently isolated incidents of chemical weapons. Was it really possible that the Islamic State was using poison gas on the battlefield? No army had used chemicals against troop formations since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. No militia or terrorist group had done so, ever. Even if the accounts were true, where had the chemicals come from, and how did ISIS manage to get them?

The Kurds could not say. Obtaining chlorine was no problem, as the industrial chemical could be found in Iraqi factories the terrorists now controlled. But what about sulfur mustard? Had the terrorists stumbled upon abandoned munitions from Saddam Hussein’s time? Had they managed to steal something from Syria’s stockpile of poisons?

Some answers began to emerge in the following months, as delegations from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) arrived in Baghdad to investigate the reported attacks on Kurdish forces at the Iraqi government’s request. The investigators swabbed yellow residue from recovered mortar fragments and tested the greasy soil in the spots where the projectiles had landed. They interviewed Kurdish soldiers and examined the ugly scars left behind wherever the foul-smelling liquid had touched human skin. They examined one soldier whose legs were utterly covered with chemical burns, from his waist to the crisp line at mid-calf where his army boots had offered some protection.

The lab tests and interviews yielded a confirmation, and also a surprise. The oily liquid in the mortar shells was sulfur mustard, no doubt, but it differed from the kinds of military-grade blister agents the OPCW’s experts were familiar with. Its formula was relatively simple, even crude. It lacked enhancers and stabilizers that military weaponeers typically use, which meant that it tended to break down more quickly when exposed to the environment. It was neither Syrian nor Iraqi, judging from its chemical composition, yet it clearly had been made by someone with access to modern laboratory equipment, a working knowledge of toxic weapons, and a grasp of basic chemistry.

All the signs pointed in the same alarming direction. Somewhere in Iraq or Syria, ISIS was manufacturing its own chemical weapons. The terrorists had not yet mastered all the elements. But they were learning. And the U.S. government was on their tail.

***

Suleiman al-Afari woke up on the morning of February 8, 2016, with an unusually long to-do list, which put the 49-year-old ISIS weapons-maker in a peevish mood. As a scientist and lifelong bureaucrat, he liked keeping a routine, even in wartime, but on this morning there were errands and obligations that would keep him on the road and out of the office for half the day. His mother was ill, which meant an hour’s drive to her village to visit with her, and perhaps to try to negotiate medical care with the jihadists who now ran the local hospital. He also had to drop his wife off at work, pick up cakes and navigate a gantlet of checkpoints that clotted the highways all around Mosul, Iraq, forcing motorists to wait in lines while bearded militiamen peered suspiciously inside their vehicles. As a final chore, he had to stop at an industrial supply warehouse to load up his car with jugs of liquid soap.

For the peculiar kind of factory he ran, soap is considered essential safety equipment. His workers made sulfur mustard for the Islamic State’s artillery rockets and bombs, and in case of a spill, the lye in the soap could help neutralize the chemical toxins and lessen the number of severe burns and disfiguring scars.

In his former life, Afari never dreamed of having such a job, and he certainly never asked for it. In that fateful summer of 2014 when ISIS took over his city, he had worked as a geologist and midlevel functionary in the Mosul office of Iraq’s Ministry of Industry and Minerals.

He was a family man, gregarious and gray-haired, who had spent his entire life in Mosul and had chosen not to flee, as thousands of his neighbors did, when an Islamic State army swept through the city, defeating an Iraqi troop garrison that was at least 15 times larger.

When the men from Islamic State demanded that he help them make chemical weapons, Afari was reluctant to refuse. Thus Afari the geologist became Afari the chemical weaponeer.

On February 8, when he was out looking for soap, four helicopters descended on him.

He was still trying to make sense of it when he felt something hit the car. There was a loud bang, then a series of pops as bullets hit the side panels and hood. A searing pain shot through his left leg, and he felt the car veer sharply as one of its tires blew. Afari pulled off the road and cut the engine, and with uplifted hands he climbed out of the car and into a whirl of sand and rotor wash. A huge dog suddenly appeared from nowhere and seized him by the arm.

“I wasn’t afraid that they would kill me,” Afari said afterward of the lunging canine and its handler, an American commando in body armor who grabbed his other arm to cuff him as he lay on the ground. “I never saw myself as an important figure. Anyway, at the moment, I was busy with the dog.”

Another soldier shoved a picture—an ID photo—in Afari’s face and asked in English if he was the man in the photograph.

“That you?”

“Yes,” Afari replied.

Then a cloth bag was slipped over his head and the world went dark.

***

When the blindfold was removed about a half-hour later, he was surrounded by U.S. and Kurdish soldiers at an Iraqi detention camp, many miles away. It was day one in Afari’s yearslong ordeal in prison, and a breakthrough day for the U.S. and Kurdish forces that had just netted one of the most important ISIS weapons-makers ever to be captured alive. It took only a few hours for Afari to fully grasp his choices, and then the words started to flow. The Iraqis ultimately would seek the death penalty for the ISIS weaponeer, but with a stay of execution as long as he cooperated. So he cooperated.

The picture he painted over the following weeks was of a weapons program that was at once ambitious and amateurish; one that was often mismanaged and disorganized, but malevolent in its intention. The group’s propaganda machine had never uttered a word about chemical weapons, but beginning in the fall of 2014, the United States learned, ISIS had been working diligently to make them.

The interrogations took place in Iraq, inside the fortresslike headquarters of the Kurdistan Regional Government’s Counterterrorism Department. Afari, sipping tea and wearing prison-issued sweat clothes and sandals, recounted in matter-of-fact detail the terrorist group’s attempts to make mustard gas, part of what he described as a broader effort to create novel weapons and delivery systems to defend the caliphate and terrorize its opponents.

Over several weeks the interrogation of Afari yielded a trove of precious details, including specific locations of chemical facilities and the names of the scientists and functionaries who ran them. Each day’s summaries were transmitted to analysts at the CIA and the Pentagon, and then back across the Atlantic to the Baghdad operations room from which Lieutenant General Sean MacFarland, leader of military forces in the anti-ISIS coalition, managed the war.

MacFarland read the reports carefully. The CIA and the Defense Department were now working to disrupt the Islamic State’s weapons program, and they already had achieved a crucial success: the killing of Abu Malik, Afari’s ISIS boss. Alarmed by the engineer’s talk about gassing Western cities, the Pentagon quietly dispatched special-forces teams into Iraq to find him, and then ordered an airstrike that obliterated his Mosul office. Abu Malik was dead, but as Afari’s confessions revealed, ISIS had not given up. Newcomers, including foreign scientists, had been tapped to fulfill Abu Malik’s terrible vision. MacFarland parsed the latest intelligence in daily conference calls with other Pentagon officials who separately arrived at the same grim conclusion: Given enough time, the ISIS weaponeers would eventually succeed.

“We began to recognize that ISIS was pulling in not just fighters but people with unique skills: technical skills, scientific skills, financial skills,” said General Joseph Votel, the Pentagon’s special-operations chief at the time and a regular participant in the discussions. “That gave us pause. We all witnessed the horrific things they were doing. You had to make the presumption that if they got their hands on a chemical weapon, they would use it.”

By early 2016, under pressure from the U.S.-led military campaign, the caliphate’s soldiers were retreating everywhere, but the chemical threat appeared ever more significant. The worry among both American and Iraqi commanders was that a collapsing ISIS would try to avenge its losses by unleashing its chemical weapons, either on the battlefield or in terrorist attacks in Western cities, delivered perhaps by one of the scores of small drones the militants had gone to great effort to acquire. “They were hoping for some kind of a wonder weapon,” MacFarland said later, “one that might save the caliphate.”

MacFarland faced enormous pressure to act. In Washington, President Barack Obama’s national security advisers now were well aware of how a poison-gas weapon could transform the terror campaign that ISIS had already unleashed in European cities. Even a relatively minor attack in New York or Los Angeles would generate such an outcry that the White House would be compelled to expand the war and send another generation of U.S. ground forces into battle in Iraq and perhaps Syria. In Baghdad, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s government was equally anxious. Iraq’s frontline troops already were jittery about the possibility of chemical attacks, so much so that senior commanders worried about the effect on morale. In MacFarland’s visits with Iraqi counterparts, the subject almost always came up. The older officers had seen the effects of sarin and mustard gas during the Iran- Iraq War, and the memory was seared into their brains.

“They would talk about it, and the Iraqi press would make a big deal about it,” MacFarland said. “They all knew how terrible it can be.”

Taking out the group’s capability would not be easy. The weapons facilities described by Afari were not hidden away on military bases or in underground bunkers, as they had been in Syria. The most important ones were in cities, inside lightly protected civilian facilities in the middle of residential neighborhoods. The Islamists had hidden a sizable production center inside a wing of a civilian hospital in Hit, a city of 60,000 people. Another was on the grounds of Mosul University, in the heart of Iraq’s second most populous city. Any airstrike against sites such as these carried a risk of releasing clouds of dangerous chemicals that could drift through homes, schools and playgrounds. If civilians were killed, the U.S. military and its partners would be blamed.

But MacFarland was out of time. Waiting for Iraqi troops to recapture the sites would mean a delay of many weeks, perhaps months. ISIS would surely use the time to build more weapons, or better ones. Or it might simply move its factories somewhere else.

A strike package was carefully assembled, with special kinds of bombs selected for the unusual mission. Beginning in March, just over a month after Afari’s arrest, MacFarland’s team was ready to act.

***

The spring’s rolling airstrikes began without fanfare and gained little notice in U.S. newspapers. The first target was the Iraqi city of Hit, where hundreds of government troops and tribal militiamen already were waiting on the outskirts to liberate the town from its ISIS occupiers. U.S. warplanes swooped in on March 25, 2016, to attack strategic targets around the city ahead of the ground assault, and over the next five days, the Americans struck 17 sites, one of which was blandly listed by the Pentagon as an “improvised weapons facility.” On April 12, Iraqi forces fought their way into central Hit, capturing the hospital and its now-ruined chemical lab.

Next on the list was Mosul. The Islamic State’s Iraqi capital was, even in wartime, a densely populated city of more than a million people, and the terrorists had positioned their most important laboratories at Mosul University, on the east bank of the Tigris River and smack in the middle of town. Mindful of the high risk of civilian casualties, the mission’s planners selected special incendiary bombs designed to generate a small blast radius but intense heat, to vaporize weapons, supplies and any residual gases that might otherwise escape. Then they waited for conditions to be just right. The time of day, the wind’s speed and direction, the humidity level—any one of these could be the margin between a clean strike and a calamity for an innocent Iraqi family.

The strikes occurred sporadically as conditions allowed and new targets emerged, beginning in late spring and continuing through fall. The biggest strike, on September 13, involved a dozen U.S. aircraft and more than 50 bombs and missiles that tore apart a large manufacturing complex for pharmaceuticals on Mosul’s outskirts.

Then it was over. By late 2016, U.S. military commanders were confidently asserting that the Islamic State’s industrial capacity for making chemical weapons had been eliminated. On January 14, 2017, six days before the end of the Obama presidency, Iraqi troops captured Mosul University, the heart of eastern Mosul and the epicenter of the Islamic State’s chemical weapons program.

The impact of the Pentagon’s bombing campaign was direct and measurable. Researchers ultimately would attribute more than 70 poison-gas attacks to ISIS forces in Iraq and Syria. After the liberation of eastern Mosul, the number of incidents dropped to zero.

Yet in the assessment of MacFarland and the other generals behind the bombing campaign, there was little doubt about the threat that remained. Several key ISIS figures were known to have escaped to Syria, including a French national named Joe Asperman, one of the Europeans recruited by ISIS for his scientific expertise. The caliphate’s leaders were so protective of Asperman and his projects that they issued a statement falsely claiming that the Frenchman had been “martyred.” Now dispersed across the Middle East and perhaps beyond, Asperman and other operatives would simply be harder to find.

“They had all this capability and technical knowledge. Where did it go?” asked Votel, the former special operations commander who would soon become CENTCOM chief. “We know that some of their people were killed and others went home. But some may still be out there.”

Indeed, ISIS itself issued a rare warning that a chemical attack would be coming, at a time of its choosing. Months after Kurdish fighters overran the caliphate’s last enclaves in Syria in 2019, the group’s leaders issued an official pronouncement declaring a “new stage” in the group’s terror campaign against its enemies, especially Israelis. The message promised new tactics and weapons, and included, for the first time, an explicit call for the use of poison gas.

“O soldiers of the caliphate everywhere,” it said, “below you are the settlements and markets of the Jews. So make them a testing ground for your weapons: our chemical-bearing rockets.”

Hong Kong

Hong Kong authorities charge 47 with subversion under security law

EU condemns allegations and demands ‘immediate release’ of democracy activists.

BY DAVID M. HERSZENHORN

Police in Hong Kong on Sunday charged 47 former democracy activists with conspiracy to subvert state power under a draconian national security law imposed by China last year.

The 47 charged on Sunday were among more than 50 people arrested in January. Those arrests drew outrage in the West, with governments accusing Beijing of violating the Sino-British Joint Declaration that underpinned the transfer of sovereignty over Hong Kong from the United Kingdom to China.

In a statement, the EU condemned the charges, calling them a matter “of great concern.”

“The nature of these charges makes clear that legitimate political pluralism will no longer be tolerated in Hong Kong,” Nabila Massrali, a European Commission spokeswoman, said in the statement.

“The EU urges Hong Kong and Beijing authorities to abide by their commitments to fundamental freedoms and the rule of law, as enshrined in the Basic Law and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. The EU calls for the immediate release of those arrested,” the statement said.

Single-dose shot

Single-dose Covid vaccine recommended by CDC advisory panel

The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the first single-dose shot authorized in the U.S.

By BRIANNA EHLEY

A CDC advisory panel on Sunday unanimously recommended Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose coronavirus vaccine for Americans 18 and older, paving the way for the shot to be administered to the public beginning this week.

Twelve members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices endorsed the vaccine, with none voting against and a single member recusing due to potential conflicts. The vote comes after the FDA on Saturday authorized emergency use of the shot for adults 18 and older.

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky signed off on the recommendation shortly after the vote.

"This vaccine is also another important tool in our toolbox to equitably vaccinate as many people as possible, as quickly as possible," Walensky said in a statement.

The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the first single-dose shot authorized in the U.S. and is easier to store and transport than two-dose Covid vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. For that reason, it will be especially useful in rural communities and for hard-to-reach populations.

The details: The shot was found to be 66 percent effective in preventing moderate to severe Covid-19 at least 28 days after vaccination, and 85 percent effective in preventing severe to critical Covid over the same time frame, according to the FDA.

The J&J vaccine's efficacy rate is lower than both the Pfizer and Moderna shots, which were found to be 95 percent and 94 percent, respectively. Public health officials warn the rates don't offer apples-to-apples comparisons, and that the J&J trial may offer a better measure of how the company's vaccine stacks up against new, more transmissable Covid strains that are proliferating around the world.

“I think we need to pull away from this comparing and parsing numbers until you compare them head-to-head. Just be really grateful that we have three really efficacious vaccines,” Anthony Fauci, the government's top infectious disease expert, said Sunday on ABC's "This Week."

A senior administration official told reporters the Biden team has directed states to distribute all three vaccines evenly throughout all populations. The official said the federal government is closely monitoring state distribution and whether equity metrics are being hit.

What's next: The Biden administration says roughly 4 million J&J shots will be sent out this week, including 2 million to states and another 2 million to pharmacies and community health centers.

The vaccine will be delivered to states and other localities as early as Tuesday morning, according to the senior administration official. The J&J dose will be allocated based on states' population, like the other two vaccines.

The company told lawmakers on Capitol Hill last week that it plans to provide 20 million vaccines by the end of March and 100 million by the end of June. The senior administration official said J&J told the government that its weekly supply will be limited for the next couple of weeks after this week's initial distribution.

Federal health officials have suggested there will be enough Covid vaccines by April or June for the general population to access the shots without waiting.

The CDC's advisory panel will meet again Monday to discuss clinical considerations for the Covid-19 vaccines, as well as a safety update regarding the shots. The members will also discuss the threat of emerging variants that have been identified in more than 40 states.

OK, they are just fucking stupid as all hell...

CPAC designed as a Trump coronation, former head of American Conservative Union says

"He’s going to continue to make sure people understand that he is the de facto leader of the Republican Party," Al Cardenas said.

By DAVID COHEN

The former head of the organization that oversees CPAC on Sunday called this year's ongoing event a coronation of Donald Trump.

Calling him "the great whiner," Al Cardenas said on MSNBC of Trump: "He’s going to continue to make sure people understand that he is the de facto leader of the Republican Party, and those that don’t follow his path will have to pay for it."

Cardenas was the head of the American Conservative Union from 2011 to 2014. The organization runs the annual Conservative Political Action Conference, which began in 1974 with Ronald Reagan as its first keynote speaker. Cardenas was succeeded by Matt Schlapp, who remains the organization's president.

Trump is to address CPAC on Sunday afternoon.

Speaking on "The Sunday Show With Jonathan Capehart," Cardenas said that everything at CPAC leading up to Trump's speech has been "a set-up" to highlight the themes that the former president will hammer home.

Trump is, Cardenas told Capehart, intent on "instilling fear" and "making sure everybody know there is one leader in this party and that’s him."

Not really helpful

Fauci on CPAC speech: ‘I’m sure that you can get a standing ovation by saying I’m wrong’

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem was applauded at the conservative conference when she rebuked his Covid guidance.

By QUINT FORGEY

Dr. Anthony Fauci on Sunday said South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem’s criticism of him at the Conservative Political Action Conference was “not really helpful” to the nation’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

The remarks from President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser came after Noem, a Republican and an ardent supporter of former President Donald Trump, received a standing ovation on Saturday at the American Conservative Union’s annual conference for rebuking Fauci’s public health guidance.

In her CPAC address, Noem boasted that her administration focused on hospital capacity rather than Covid-19 case numbers. “I don’t know if you agree with me, but Dr. Fauci is wrong a lot,” she said, drawing loud applause from the crowd in Orlando, Fla.

Appearing Sunday on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” Fauci — the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases — described Noem’s remarks as “unfortunate.”

“It is not really helpful. Because sometimes you think things are going well, and just take a look at the numbers. They don’t lie,” he said, adding: “I’m sure that you can get a standing ovation by saying I’m wrong.”

Public health experts have been critical of Noem’s comparatively few coronavirus-related restrictions and broader pandemic response in South Dakota, where per capita deaths have soared in one of the country’s least-populated states. More than 512,000 Americans have died from the pandemic.

But Noem, who appeared after Fauci on “Face the Nation” on Sunday, defended her handling of the crisis, saying she gave South Dakotans “personal responsibility over decisions for their families’ public health, but also gave them the flexibility they needed to keep their businesses open.”

“South Dakota is doing well,” Noem said. “We’ve had some tragic situations, but I know that respecting them in my role, in the authority that I have as governor, has been incredibly helpful to get our state … through this challenging time.”

Republican Study Committee

The Republican trying to bridge the Trump-Pence divide

Rep. Jim Banks is reshaping the Republican Study Committee to align with the ex-president still ruling the GOP.

By GABBY ORR

The Trump-Pence tensions within the GOP haven't entirely disappeared from Washington.

The two men have gone their separate ways, retreating to sunny West Palm Beach in Donald Trump’s case and splitting time between the Beltway and Indiana in Mike Pence’s. But the odd coupling of traits that defined their relationship in office — Pence’s polished disposition and traditional conservatism, Trump’s brash outbursts and populist politics — lives on.

It exists inside the Republican Study Committee, the largest caucus for House GOP members, whose newly minted chair Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) wants to meld the former president and vice president’s approaches to become a force for the next iteration of the conservative movement. What helps is that Banks, a 41-year-old member of Congress from small-town Indiana, is every bit as mild-mannered as Pence but has policy instincts firmly rooted in Trumpism.

“Even though his style is somewhat understated or subdued,” explains Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), a close friend of Banks and an RSC member. “Jim knows what needs to be done, which problems need fixing and how to fix them.”

Take China. Banks, an Afghanistan veteran, saw how Trump’s anti-China rhetoric appealed to working-class voters and decided to make confronting Beijing a serious part of the group’s legislative agenda after years of focusing almost exclusively on budget and spending reforms. He and his allies recently introduced more than 20 bills narrowly tailored to the China threat — ranging from a push to end U.S. investments in the country’s military industrial base to requiring consumer protection warnings on apps and downloadable software with origins in China.

“These aren’t traditional issues that the RSC is focused on, but Trump taught us that these are issues we have to focus on in order to bring voters over and win elections,” Banks said in an interview.

The RSC had long been the dominant conservative faction in the House, but it was somewhat eclipsed by the House Freedom Caucus, which was founded in 2015 by GOP lawmakers who viewed the RSC as too meek. These hard-liners, including Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and future White House chiefs of staff Mick Mulvaney and Mark Meadows, ultimately became some of Trump’s most loyal allies and won real influence during his term.

Now, as the GOP debates its relationship with the volatile one-term president, Banks is looking to boost the RSC’s profile by embracing Trump while trying to smooth off his sharpest edges. It’s an approach that could end up satisfying no one in such a polarized moment. But if he succeeds, the group could offer an operating manual of sorts for how the rest of the conservative machine should run between now and 2024 while giving him a prominent platform to rise in the House.

The first chapter of such a manual would probably consist of just five letters: F-I-G-H-T.

Over the course of an hour-long interview, Banks invoked the word more than a dozen times, reflecting just how deeply Trump’s pugilistic style has seeped into nearly every corner of the conservative movement — including the once-sleepy RSC. Only 48 members of the 148-member caucus voted to certify the 2020 election results following the deadly Jan. 6 riot of Trump supporters, while the remaining 100 followed Trump’s lead to overturn the outcome.

Trump’s bellicosity won him a cult-like following on the right, while his vulgarity was often excused by religious conservatives willing to avert their eyes as long as he backed their policy preferences on Israel, abortion and religious freedom. Even after the pro-Trump mob ransacked the Capitol, the self-avowed constitutional conservatives that Banks and his flock represent remain just as enthralled with Trumpism as they were at the height of his presidency.

“What the president taught us,” Banks said, “is how to fight back. The Republican Party base was looking for a fighter and they got that in Donald Trump.”

“Will the GOP reflect that moving forward? I think that’s a big question,” he added. “What you’ve seen with RSC is we’re a quiet group and we’re not going to be quiet any longer.”

The result, in the emerging version of the RSC under Banks’ leadership, is a group that intends to remain true to its ideological roots but with an ever so Trumpian flare. They will keep one eye trained on social and fiscal policies that have long been hallmarks of the conservative movement — akin to those Pence fought for during his 2005-2007 tenure as RSC chair — and the other on a new set of cultural topics that Republicans have only just begun to tackle under Trump.

Adding new legs to the stool
In some ways, the Banks experiment — call it the kinder, gentler form of Trumpism — has already begun.

There’s the RSC-led effort to protect the Hyde Amendment’s long-standing ban on federal funding for abortion procedures as well as Banks’ “Save Democracy” project, an ode-to-Trump plan to impose tighter voting rules that Banks circulated to his conservative colleagues just two days after the Capitol riot. There’s the drafting of the RSC’s signature budget — a fiscally conservative blueprint released annually by the group since 1995 — alongside its campaign to confront the alleged disproportional censorship of right-wing voices by Big Tech.

“The RSC has always been a conservative rudder of the House, but Jim also wants to get more involved in pushing out conservative policy alternatives,” House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.), himself a former RSC chair, said in an interview.

“We can build upon the conservative movement by adding other pieces to the three-legged stool,” Banks added, referring to the conservative movement’s longtime focus on building up a strong national defense, protecting traditional social values and championing free markets.

But beyond the new policy pillars the caucus is adopting, there is an almost excessive emphasis on ensuring the promises surrounding these issues are fulfilled.

This last part is shaping up to be the biggest challenge for conservatives as they navigate the post-Trump political landscape without their No. 1 champion nearby. Trump has emerged only a handful of times since relocating to Florida, though he made an appearance on Sunday at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference to encourage party leaders to continue fighting for his agenda.

Meanwhile, after only a month as RSC chair, Banks is already seen as a rising star in the House GOP. He spoke alongside House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy at a CPAC panel titled “Winning Back America,” and has declined to rule out a run for House GOP conference chair. That’s the position currently held by Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), perhaps the biggest Republican Trump critic in Washington.

Banks has also shown a media savvy lacking in many of his predecessors — inviting some of the brashest voices on the right to meet with members of his caucus, and generating headlines accordingly. Ahead of President Joe Biden’s inauguration, he hosted then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a rumored 2024 hopeful, to discuss the future of the conservative movement at an off-campus gathering with GOP lawmakers that also featured remarks from Fox News’ Tucker Carlson.

Banks organized a similar meeting on Wednesday with Stephen Miller, who spoke to roughly 75 Republicans about immigration. But that gathering also revealed the RSC’s unique role as a sometimes uneasy coalition of many different GOP factions: Freshman Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) tangled with the former Trump aide over his restrictionist agenda, and some lawmakers even told POLITICO they skipped the event because Miller was the guest.

Banks has also organized caucus-wide meetings with figures who represent a more subdued version of Trumpism. A day before Miller’s appearance, RSC members heard from Pence, whose standing within the conservative movement long predates his association with his former West Wing boss.

Pence, who led the group partway through George W. Bush’s second term, encouraged his audience to remain united against the Biden agenda — including the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill currently making its way through Congress — and said he has plans to start his own policy group in the coming months. Earlier this year, the RSC also heard from former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, another top Republican with her eye on 2024.

“The first time I ever heard of RSC was when Mike Pence was chairman,” Banks said. “He was the emerging conservative champion and figurehead that I aspire to be at this moment.”

In fact, Banks is on the record as an early endorser of a Pence 2024 bid, something the former vice president has begun laying the groundwork for should he choose to run. “For me, Mike Pence is at the top of the list,” he said, while conceding that Trump would most likely win the party’s nomination if he decided to mount his own comeback bid in four years.

It’s that recognition of Trump’s abiding influence on the party, which has long rankled some conservatives, that will serve as Banks’ north star as he spends the next year working to position the GOP for a 2022 takeover of the House.

Though he’s not necessarily a MAGA fanatic — he admits to having taken a while to warm to the former president’s style and told the Washington Examiner shortly after the November election that “the Trump agenda was what was popular, not the man” — he believes there is no appetite for a Republican Party that pretends the last four years didn’t happen or reverts to its pre-Trump form.

While Banks said Trump’s coarse personality doesn’t need to dictate the way conservatives behave in future policy-making ventures, he firmly believes the former president’s agenda must continue to be integrated if the party hopes to survive. There is plenty of room for Trumpism — from maintaining an intense focus on China to bending conservative orthodoxy on trade and spending to not being afraid to dive deep into emerging culture wars — that can and should outlast the man himself, Banks contends.

“What I want to do with the RSC for the next couple of years is really make the Trump legacy and the Trump platform the platform of the Republican Party and the conservative movement of the future,” he said. “And RSC is perfectly positioned to effectively do that.”

Census

Census data snafu upends 2022 elections

A six-month delay in releasing redistricting data to is set to delay primaries and blow deadlines for new maps in some states.

By ZACH MONTELLARO and ALLY MUTNICK

A six-month delay holding up the data that states use to draw their legislative districts is mangling plans for the 2022 elections, as states discuss postponing primaries and navigating legal deadlines for redistricting that some are now almost certain to miss.

The Census Bureau announced in mid-February that redistricting data — the granular, block-level population counts that are used to draw equal-population political boundaries for state legislatures and the House of Representatives — would be released by Sept. 30 this year, well past the usual delivery date of March 31.

Many states are typically done with redistricting by then, not just starting it, and the delay puts states with early primaries and redistricting deadlines in a difficult position. At least nine states have constitutional or statutory deadlines to redraw their maps, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, that won’t mesh with such a profound delay in the data delivery. Election officials in some states, such as North Carolina, have recommended moving back early primary dates to make more time for drawing new districts. And both political parties will have to grapple with how to recruit candidates to run for districts that may not exist until just before election season begins.

“Basically we’re sort of panicking, and we’re not really sure what we’re going to do,” said Jessika Shipley, the staff director of the Colorado's state redistricting commission. “We don’t have the option of just waiting and doing this for the 2024 cycle.”

The time crunch will hit every state, but it’s particularly acute in states like Colorado with hard deadlines. Colorado’s state constitution requires new congressional maps to be drawn by Sept. 1. The commission is not fully formed yet, but Shipley said her staff is considering its options, including proposing legislation or turning to the state judiciary for a delay. “The other option is, I guess, to wait and get sued because we don’t meet our deadlines, and see what court weighs in at that point,” she said.

In a late February call with reporters, the National Republican Redistricting Trust, the GOP’s hub for data and legal efforts on redistricting, expressed concern that the delay could spur a cascade of litigation and force courts to take a significantly bigger role in the redistricting process.

"I am concerned that it's going to increase the volume of litigation," said Jason Torchinsky, an attorney with the NRRT who gamed out potential scenarios stemming from the census delays, including a proliferation of court-drawn interim maps. "So we could wind up with a series of court-drawn maps around the country for 2022, only to have legislatures reconvene to draw new maps for 2024."

Even the broadest redistricting data from the Census Bureau — apportionment data, the topline population counts that determine how many House seats each state gets — won't be released until the second half of April. These numbers, which were originally slated for release in December 2020, are most crucial to states that are on the cusp of losing or gaining a seat — and to the members of Congress in those states, who could suddenly find themselves standing without a chair when the music stops. The latest estimates show New York and Alabama battling for the last slot.

A few states have already taken action to give themselves more leeway, and they could serve as potential blueprints for their peers. California’s constitution requires that maps be drawn by Aug. 15, but the state legislature had already sought and received a four-month extension from the state Supreme Court — and it may require another. Other legislatures are also considering asking the judiciary for relief.

“We’re working with the attorney general’s office to see what options we may have,” said Maine state Senate President Troy Jackson, whose state has a June deadline for the legislature to draw maps. “We might have to go to the Maine Supreme Court to see if we could get an extension. The original delay was concerning, really concerning. But this one is obviously a real problem.”

“I think the court’s going to be sympathetic, if that’s the route we end up going, because they won’t be able to draw any maps without having any knowledge, either,” he continued. “Our constitution never took into account what we’re dealing with here.”

Another tactic adopted by Ohio last week was to file a suit in federal court that would compel the Census Bureau to release redistricting data on March 31 as legally required, arguing that the Bureau has unilaterally changed the deadlines codified in law and was harming the state. Ohio has a constitutional deadline to finalize its new maps in September.

Voters in New Jersey, which holds legislative elections in odd-numbered years, approved a state constitutional amendment in 2020 that pushes legislative redistricting back due to the delay, so the 2021 elections will be held on the old maps.

The six-month delay will have a downstream effect that will likely hold up candidate filing deadlines and primaries around the country. Illinois, Texas and North Carolina, which are likely to have March primaries and late 2021 candidate-filing deadlines, are in the biggest squeeze. And with Illinois on track to lose a seat, North Carolina gaining one and Texas slated to gain as many as three, all maps will change significantly, too.

“Keep in mind the logistics of this: This is not just the deadlines for drawing the maps,” Torchinsky said. “You also have to work backwards from the date of the election to allow time for both qualifying, through whatever the state processes are, plus allowing normal time for election administration like ballot printing.”

In North Carolina, Karen Brinson Bell, the executive director of the state board of elections, told a State House committee last week that her staff is recommending that the state’s primaries be pushed to May 3. Any change in the state’s election calendar would have to be approved by the state legislature.

And in Pennsylvania, legislative leaders have already floated the need to delay the state’s 2022 primaries, which are currently scheduled for mid-May.

“It is possible that the six-month delay could cause the final legislative plans to be completed well into the second quarter of 2022,” Brent McClintock, the executive director of the Pennsylvania Legislative Data Processing Center, a nonpartisan agency that assists the state legislature, said at a hearing last week.

Uncertain schedules for primaries and filing deadlines put candidates in a particularly uncomfortable situation. They will go months without actually knowing the lines of the districts they want to run in — a headache lawmakers in Pennsylvania know well.

In 2018, the state Supreme Court invalidated Pennsylvania’s congressional map, calling it an illegal partisan gerrymander. It didn’t impose a new map until February 2018, about three months before the primaries.

“When I ran my first time, we didn't really know where the districts were. We ended up running several different races,” said second-term Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.). “We ended up doing petitions in two different districts. We ended up not knowing where to campaign. It's really hard.”

In general, that dynamic could benefit incumbents in 2022, given that sitting lawmakers typically have sizable campaign accounts and a built-out staff. Challengers, meanwhile, may be reluctant to launch campaigns knowing that districts might change in ways that make them unwinnable or draw their communities into a different seat.

The compressed timeline will also make it harder for objectors to challenge new maps, either in court or by marshaling public opinion.

The National Democratic Redistricting Committee, led by former Attorney General Eric Holder, has been working for years to get voters more invested in blocking partisan gerrymanders so they can publicly pressure lawmakers into creating what they call "fair districts."

In Florida, some Democrats are working to ensure a short redistricting timeline doesn't interfere with their state-mandated process of gathering public input on the new maps proposed by lawmakers in Tallahassee.

"Making sure that the public engagement piece is there to react to what the legislature proposes to do is just as important," said Florida state Rep. Ben Diamond, who is helping with Democratic redistricting efforts in the state.

We will lose..

Bill Cassidy warns it’s dangerous for GOP to ‘idolize’ Trump

“If we idolize one person, we will lose,” the Louisiana Republican said.

By QUINT FORGEY

Sen. Bill Cassidy on Sunday warned that the GOP’s continued embrace of Donald Trump would cost Republicans elections up and down the ballot in the coming years, and predicted that the former president would not become the party’s 2024 nominee.

“Over the last four years, we have lost the House, the Senate and the presidency,” Cassidy (R-La.) told CNN’s “State of the Union” in an interview.

“Political campaigns are about winning. Our agenda does not move forward unless we win,” he continued. “We need a candidate who can not only win himself or herself, but we also have to have someone who lifts all boats. And that’s clearly not happened over the last four years.”

Cassidy said Republicans could triumph in the 2022 midterm elections as well as the 2024 White House race by “speaking to those issues that are important to the American people,” not “putting one person on a pedestal and making that one person our focal point.”

He added: “If we idolize one person, we will lose. And that’s kind of clear from the last election.”

The senator’s remarks stand in stark contrast to the fervently pro-Trump rhetoric that has been on display in recent days at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando, Fla. — where prominent Republican officials have promoted the former president as the future of the party and sought to embrace his legacy.

But the comments are not necessarily out of character for Cassidy, who surprised his party earlier this month by voting to proceed with Trump’s second impeachment trial and then became one of seven Republican senators to find him guilty of inciting the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol.

Republicans remain divided over Trump’s role in the party going forward, with a small group of more establishment-oriented GOP leaders ratcheting up their criticism of him in recent weeks.

But even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who called the former president “morally and practically responsible” for the Capitol siege, said he would support Trump if he were Republicans’ next nominee for president.

And Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) also argued last week that Trump would easily win the GOP nomination if he seeks the White House again in 2024.

Attempt to organize

Biden backs right of Amazon workers to attempt to organize

But he stops short of telling them to vote for the union.

By DAVID COHEN

President Joe Biden on Sunday offered his support for organizing efforts by Amazon workers in Alabama, though he stopped just short of endorsing the formation of a union.

"Workers in Alabama — and all across America — are voting on whether to organize a union in their workplace. It’s a vitally important choice — one that should be made without intimidation or threats by employers," the president tweeted. "Every worker should have a free and fair choice to join a union."

His tweet was accompanied by a video in which Biden addressed the workers involved. He told them that the choice whether to organize was their choice exclusively, and that there should be "no coercion" by the company.

"I have long said America wasn't built by Wall Street," the president began. "It was built by the middle class, and unions built the middle class."

Biden has long cultivated an image as a friend of organized labor but had previously largely steered clear of the efforts to organize Amazon's workers at a location in Bessemer, Ala. Some 6,000 workers at the Alabama facility have been voting whether to organize.

“If we don’t have the leader of the free world speaking up and saying, 'I've got these workers’ backs, so that they can actually freely choose their union,' ... We're leaving them stranded,” Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA told POLITICO in an interview.