A place were I can write...

My simple blog of pictures of travel, friends, activities and the Universe we live in as we go slowly around the Sun.



September 27, 2023

Attack Trump

Christie is in on the Taylor Swift hype — and using it to attack Trump

“I was just a guy in the bleachers on Sunday... but after tonight, Trump will know we are never ever getting back together,” Christie wrote.

By OLIVIA ALAFRIZ

Presidential candidate Chris Christie seized an opportunity to make a playful Taylor Swift reference — while throwing in a jab at former President Donald Trump — hours before the second Republican debate Wednesday.

“I was just a guy in the bleachers on Sunday... but after tonight, Trump will know we are never ever getting back together,” the former New Jersey governor wrote on social media, borrowing from the pop singer’s iconic lyrics.

Christie’s dig was in response to a photo posted to social media of Christie sitting alongside Dallas Cowboys owner and Republican donor Jerry Jones during the Cowboys’ game against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, accompanied by a user’s joking question: “Ooooh who on the Cowboys is Chris Christie dating?!” The question nodded to the internet frenzy over rumors that Swift is dating Kansas City Chiefs player Travis Kelce, fueled by her attendance at a recent game with Kelce’s mother.

Christie has openly attacked Trump since launching his campaign, and the post likely foreshadows more attempts to position himself as a foil to the former president during Wednesday’s debate.

The former governor has been polling in the low single digits, and although some of his rivals have breached the low teens in the polls, none come close to clear Republican frontrunner Trump. Unlike several other GOP contenders, Christie has ruled out joining a Trump 2024 ticket as vice president.

Christie’s campaign previously confirmed to POLITICO that he is committed to staying in the race until the New Hampshire primary.

Canceled the Trump Organization’s business certification

New York judge finds Donald Trump liable for fraud

By Kara Scannell and Lauren del Valle

A New York judge found Donald Trump and his adult sons liable for fraud and canceled the Trump Organization’s business certification, a shocking ruling that poses an existential threat to the former president’s financial empire as he runs for a second term in the White House.

Judge Arthur Engoron’s ruling on Monday is a complete rejection of Trump’s arguments that he didn’t inflate the values of his golf courses, hotels, homes at Mar-a-Lago and Seven Springs on financial statements.

“In defendants’ world: rent-regulated apartments are worth the same as unregulated apartments; restricted land is worth the same as unrestricted land; restrictions can evaporate into thin air; a disclaimer by one party casting responsibility on another party exonerates the other party’s lies,” the judge wrote.

“That is a fantasy world, not the real world,” Engoron said.

The ruling came in response to the lawsuit by New York Attorney General Letitia James, who is seeking $250 million in damages, a ban on the Trumps from serving as officers of a business in New York and to stop the company from engaging in business transactions for five years.

A trial is expected to begin next week on the amount of damages owed, and the full breadth of Engoron’s ruling – or how it will play out – remains unclear.

The judge canceled the business certifications of the Trump entities that are defendants in the case, including the Trump Organization – a major blow to the business that has been so synonymous with the former president’s personal brand.

A receiver will be put in place to “manage the dissolution” of the corporate entities. There are two New York properties that are part of the lawsuit, the commercial tower at 40 Wall Street and the Trump family compound at Seven Springs.

Questions remain as to how the receiver would dissolve the properties, if the ruling would impact properties located outside of New York state, including Mar-a-Lago, and if the Trumps could transfer the New York-based assets into a new company located out of state.

“Today, a judge ruled in our favor and found that Donald Trump and the Trump Organization engaged in years of financial fraud,” James, a Democrat, said in a statement Tuesday night. “We look forward to presenting the rest of our case at trial.”

Trump condemned the ruling in a statement, accusing Engoron of “doing the bidding” of James.

“It is a great company that has been slandered and maligned by this politically motivated Witch Hunt. It is very unfair, and I call for help from the highest Courts in New York State, or the Federal System, to intercede. THIS IS NOT AMERICA!” Trump said.

Trump’s attorney Christopher Kise called the ruling “completely disconnected from the facts and governing law.”

He added: “While the full impact of the decision remains unclear, what is clear is that President Trump and his family will seek all available appellate remedies to rectify this miscarriage of justice.”

Judge calls defendants’ arguments bogus

Among other things, Trump is accused of inflating the value of his triplex apartment at Trump Tower by three times its size, resulting in an overvaluation of between $114 million to $207 million, Engoron wrote.

“A discrepancy of this order of magnitude, by a real estate developer sizing up his own living space of decades, can only be considered fraud,” Engoron wrote.

The judge was unsparing in his decision, criticizing the Trumps’ defense arguments.

“Exacerbating defendants’ obstreperous conduct is their continued reliance on bogus arguments, in papers and oral argument,” Engoron wrote.

The state supreme court judge likened the Trumps’ legal defense of his fraudulent financial statements to a Chico Marx line in the comedy “Duck Soup”: “Well, who ya gonna believe, me or your own eyes?”

James has alleged that Trump, three of his children, his companies and his business executives defrauded lenders, insurers and other entities. (An appeals court dismissed Trump’s eldest daughter, Ivanka, as a co-defendant from the case in June.)

In the lawsuit, James claims that Trump reaped a “substantial” financial benefit by putting forward faulty information in his financial statements, including $150 million in the form of favorable interest rates he obtained from the banks that the attorney general said his team misled.

In the order, the judge rejected Trump’s deposition testimony in which the former president said that the financial statements were not fraudulent because they contained disclaimers. Trump said the statements contained a “worthless clause” in them warning lenders and others that they shouldn’t be relied on.

Tuesday, the judge said that “the defendants’ reliance on these ‘worthless’ disclaimers is worthless.”

In a statement on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, Eric Trump said: “Today, I lost all faith in the New York legal system. Never before have I seen such hatred toward one person by a judge - a coordinated effort with the Attorney General to destroy a man’s life, company and accomplishments. We have run an exceptional company - never missing a loan payment, making banks hundreds of millions of dollars, developing some of the most iconic assets in the world. Yet today, the persecution of our family continues…”

Trial start date in limbo

The ruling means the attorney general’s office won on its first claim and will receive some amount of disgorgement to be determined at trial. The case will still proceed to trial but the attorney general’s office won’t need to prove the financial statements are false as they seek to hold him and his sons liable for insurance fraud and false business records.

The trial’s start date remains in limbo.

Earlier this month, Trump filed a petition with the state appeals court to force Engoron to implement an appeals court decision in June that said certain claims may be moot because they fell outside of the statute of limitations. The appeals court left it up to Engoron to decide.

A judge on the appeals court paused the start of the trial, scheduled for Monday, to allow a larger panel of appellate judges to weigh in. A decision on that issue is expected to come this week.

Less than 250 million years....

Supercontinent’ could make Earth uninhabitable in 250m years, study predicts

Jonathan Watts

The formation of a supercontinent on Earth could wipe out humans and any other mammals that are still around in 250m years, according to a study.

The mass extinction would be caused primarily by heat stress as a result of greater volcanic activity that would put twice as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as current levels, an older sun that would emit more radiation and the extent of inland deserts in the tropics.

The supercontinent Pangea Ultima is expected to take shape when all the current continents merge together in the distant future. The paper, which was published on Monday in Nature Geoscience, is the first attempt to model how extreme the climate might become from that geological rearrangement.

Using a UK Met Office climate model and the University of Bristol supercomputer, the simulation also provided tectonic clues to past extinction events and data that could be of use to astronomers looking for other habitable planets.

In the era of Pangea Ultima, the temperature extremes are expected to be dramatic, with more humidity than now along the coasts and extremely arid conditions in the vast inland deserts. In this world, global temperatures could rise 15C (and up to 30C on land) above pre-industrial levels, which would return the world to the extreme heat it last went through in the Permian–Triassic era, 260m years ago, when more than 90% of species were eradicated. Protracted periods of heat in excess of 40C would be beyond the tolerance levels of many life forms.

Mammals have been the world’s great evolutionary success story, particularly since the demise of the dinosaurs during the last great extinction event, but mammals’ ability to adapt to heat may be too slow. That includes humans, which have been on Earth for a relatively short period.

Hominids emerged about 6m years ago when the world was a much cooler place than it had been during the dinosaur period. Although our species has developed remarkably quickly, we would face enormous challenges in the era of Pangea Ultima, assuming we make it through the current self-caused climate crisis and mass extinction of other species.

In addition to the direct impacts of heat, there would be severe food supply problems due to a collapse of vegetation. The paper notes that most plants become stressed at temperatures over 40C and break down completely if exposed to 60C for protracted periods.

The paper’s lead author, Alexander Farnsworth, from the University of Bristol, said the prospect of another extinction event, which includes humans, was a sobering reminder of transience. “The Earth has a very changeable environment. Humans are very lucky with what we have now and we should not be pushing our own climate beyond the cooler climate that we evolved through. We are the dominant species but Earth and its climate decide how long that lasts,” he said. “What comes after is anyone’s guess. The dominant species could be something completely new.”

The authors acknowledge their prediction has a high level of uncertainty due to the ultra-long-term timeframe, but they hope the study, which was initiated during the pandemic lockdown, will provide useful insights into past mass extinction events and the possible habitability of other planets.

Until now, when astronomers have scanned distant galaxies for planets that might provide an alternative home for humans, they have mainly considered the distance from the nearest sun and the presence of water. The new study indicates that tectonics are also an important factor in determining the climate of a planet.

“If Nasa could only send a space shuttle to a single planet, then I would choose one that didn’t have a super continent,” Farnsworth said. “Better to have multiple continents scattered around, as is the case now on Earth.”

Worthless....

Even 1.4 billion people can’t fill all of China’s vacant homes, ex-official admits

By Reuters

Even China’s population of 1.4 billion would not be enough to fill all the empty apartments littered across the country, a former official said on Saturday, in a rare public critique of the country’s crisis-hit property market.

China’s property sector, once the pillar of the economy, has slumped since 2021 when real estate giant China Evergrande Group defaulted on its debt obligations following a clampdown on new borrowing.

Big-name developers such as Country Garden Holdings continue to teeter close to default even to this day, keeping home-buyer sentiment depressed.

As of the end of August, the combined floor area of unsold homes stood at 648 million square meters (7 billion square feet), the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show.

That would be equal to 7.2 million homes, according to Reuters calculations, based on the average home size of 90 square meters (970 square feet).

That does not count the numerous residential projects that have already been sold but not yet completed due to cash-flow problems, or the multiple homes purchased by speculators in the last market upturn in 2016 that remain vacant, which together make up the bulk of unused space, experts estimate.

“How many vacant homes are there now? Each expert gives a very different number, with the most extreme believing the current number of vacant homes are enough for 3 billion people,” said He Keng, 81, a former deputy head of the statistics bureau.

“That estimate might be a bit much, but 1.4 billion people probably can’t fill them,” He said at a forum in the southern Chinese city Dongguan, according to a video released by the official media China News Service.

His negative view of the economically significant sector at a public forum stands in sharp contrast to the official narrative that the Chinese economy is “resilient.”

“All sorts of comments predicting the collapse of China’s economy keep surfacing every now and then, but what has collapsed is such rhetoric, not China’s economy,” a spokesperson at the foreign ministry said at a recent news conference.

Independent states

US recognizes Cook Islands and Niue as independent states

By Betsy Klein and Donald Judd

The US is formally establishing diplomatic relations with a pair of Pacific Island nations Monday, recognizing the Cook Islands and Niue for the first time.

The recognition comes as President Joe Biden seeks to strengthen relationships in the Indo-Pacific region as a counter to China’s rising influence, something that’s been a major priority since he took office. The administration has worked to deepen its engagement with Pacific Island nations, and hosted the Pacific Island Forum leaders Monday at the White House.

Biden said in a pair of statements that he was “proud” to recognize Cook Islands and Niue as sovereign, independent states.

Niue, Biden said, “plays a critical and constructive role in the Pacific, including supporting the region’s sustainable development, security, and marine protection and ocean conservation.”

He continued, “Today’s announcement will enable us to deepen our cooperation with Niue on these challenges and more – from tackling the climate crisis, to protecting maritime borders and marine resources, to building sustainable economic growth, to maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific region.”

And the announcement with the Cook Islands, Biden said, “will enable us to expand the scope of this enduring partnership as we seek to tackle the challenges that matter most to our peoples’ lives – from countering illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, to combating climate change, to building inclusive economic growth, to advancing a free and open Indo-Pacific region, and beyond.”

Biden unveiled new infrastructure funding for Pacific Island partner nations, and announce $10 million through the Quad partnership to improve maritime domain awareness in the Pacific. The PIF is made up of leaders from Nauru, Vanuatu, French Polynesia, Tuvalu, the Cook Islands, the Marshall Islands, New Zealand, Fiji, Australia, Micronesia, Papua New Guinea, New Caledonia, the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Niue, Palau, Samoa, and Tonga.

Biden hosted the leaders for a summit meeting and subsequent working lunch. They will also attend a roundtable with special presidential envoy for climate John Kerry before an evening dinner hosted by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield.

“We know a great deal of the history of the world will be written across the Pacific over the coming years. We owe it to the next generation to help write that story together, to do the hard work, the historic work. … Today, let’s recommit to that goal and let’s recommit to each other,” Biden said as the leaders gathered in the East Room.

“Our objective is to build a better world,” through “stronger partnerships with each other,” he said, citing the establishment of diplomatic relations with the Cook Islands and Niue, as well as new economic agreements, new US Embassies in Tonga and the Solomon Islands, the return of the Peace Corps to some countries, and the doubling of academic exchanges for Pacific Island students.

US officials will take the opportunity during the Monday reception to formally celebrate the news that the US is officially opening diplomatic relations with the Cook Islands and Niue.

In addition to the new diplomatic relationships, the official said that the summit will see the United States announce steps “to provide secure undersea cable connectivity for Pacific Island nations – something that many of these nations need – where internet speed and connectivity is not as reliable as it should be, and where we all benefit.”

And the Quad partnership – an informal collaboration between Australia, India, Japan and the United States – will announce it is expanding 2022’s Maritime Domain Awareness Initiative to the Pacific Island region with a $10 million investment “to improve maritime domain awareness,” amidst an increasingly bellicose China.

During the meeting, Biden also touted US investment in the region, including $40 billion for infrastructure and connectivity, as well as a new microfinance facility and a $600 million agreement for sustainable development on the Pacific Island fisheries.

And he announced a new military partnership: “This we shall send the first US Coast Guard vessel solely dedicated to collaborate and train with Pacific Island nations,” he said, adding that the US will invest $11 million in maritime domain awareness technology to the region.

Biden also offered assurances to the leaders on climate change: “I want you to know I hear you. The people in United States and around the world hear you. We hear your warnings of a rising sea – that they pose an existential threat to your nations. We hear your calls for reassurance that you never, never, never will lose your statehood, or membership of the UN as result. climate crisis. Today, the United States is making it clear that this is our position as well.”

Guilty Donny...

Trump could now be on the hook for up to $250 million for fraud

Donald Trump has been found liable for fraud in New York.

By Nicole Narea

Former President Donald Trump, two of his sons, and several of his companies have been found liable for fraud in state court for inflating the value of his businesses in New York.

As a result of the Tuesday decision, Trump could be on the hook for up to $250 million. The exact amount for which he will be held liable will be determined at trial expected to begin next week. The judge in the case, Justice Arthur F. Engoron, also nullified the business certificates of Trump and many of his allies, stripping the former president of control of his New York properties.

Trump’s lawyers have indicated that they intend to appeal Tuesday’s ruling, and Trump has also sued Engoron in a separate case that could be decided this week. But if those efforts are unsuccessful, Trump will have to proceed to trial.

If that trial happens, it will likely be brief. Tuesday’s ruling came as part of a summary judgment — a ruling on the facts of the case. Engoron’s decision means the court won’t need to consider further arguments at trial, because a review of Trump’s financial statements was enough to determine that he had repeatedly committed fraud. Trump asked the court to throw out the case and argued that the alleged fraud occurred too long ago for him to be held liable.

Justice Engoron didn’t buy it, summarizing Trump’s defense as a false claim that “the documents do not say what they say; that there is no such thing as ‘objective’ value; and that, essentially, the Court should not believe its own eyes.”

It’s a major early loss for Trump in the climax of New York Attorney General Letitia James’s multi-year investigation into his New York business dealings. James’s civil case is separate from the four sets of criminal charges Trump faces that span from New York to Georgia. Together, Trump’s civil and criminal cases will dominate much of the 2024 Republican primary calendar, and his legal troubles have consumed millions of dollars of his campaign funds.

There have been no indications thus far that a judgment against Trump in the New York attorney general’s case will hurt him politically, however. Though a majority of Americans wanted more transparency into his business dealings while he was running for president and in office, he’s never offered much — and he hasn’t suffered for it.

For years, he refused to release his tax returns, as had become the norm for presidents and presidential candidates, apparently shielding years of tax avoidance from public scrutiny before the records were leaked. He still won the 2016 election and now enjoys a historically large lead, one that has seemed to increase with each of his criminal indictments, in the Republican primary.

In a statement posted to his social network following the decision, Trump was dismissive of the ruling, writing he’d “done business perfectly,” and arguing that the case was a distraction from discussions of law and order. That message was followed by reminders of his massive primary lead.

Why Trump was found liable

James argued that the court had to consider only two “simple and straightforward” questions before ruling Tuesday night: whether Trump’s annual statements of his financial condition between 2011 and 2021 were false or misleading, and whether he and his associates invoked those statements repeatedly or persistently when conducting business transactions.

Engoron found Tuesday that the answer to both of those questions is “yes,” based on the evidence that James’s office presented. (The judge also fined Trump’s lawyers $7,500 each for rehashing arguments that he had previously rejected.)

James cited many examples of ways in which Trump inflated the value of his assets.

For example, she accused Trump of lying about the square footage of his Manhattan Trump Tower apartment — where his wife Melania and son Barron spent time during the early part of his presidency — to inflate its value by about $100 million to $200 million annually from 2012 to 2016.

She also argued that Trump valued his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida as if he could sell it as a single-family residence, rather than as the social club that it is required to be under multiple restrictive deeds. And she claimed that he valued undeveloped land at his golf course in Aberdeen, Scotland, based on the assumption that he could construct and sell many more residential homes on that land than permitted by the Scottish government.

Engoron found these arguments persuasive, writing “In [the] defendants’ world: rent regulated apartments are worth the same as unregulated apartments; restricted land is worth the same as unrestricted land; restrictions can evaporate into thin air … That is a fantasy world, not the real world.”

Debate is fake...

The Republican debate is fake

With Trump dominating the GOP primary, the debate is a cosplay of a competitive election — and a distraction from an ugly truth.

By Zack Beauchamp

Tonight’s Republican primary debate is not a real event. It is a performance, a show, a pantomime: a shiny object with virtually no relevance to the outcome of the 2024 presidential primary.

Donald Trump is solidly over 50 percent in the national polling averages, and no one else in the primary field has anything that looks like momentum. No opponent has been able to find a line of attack that could hurt him; many of them aren’t even trying. The great GOP establishment hope, that Trump’s legal problems might torpedo his campaign, was a mirage. If anything, the four indictments helped him in the primary.

At this point, the only things that could stop Trump are his death or incapacitation. Everyone in the political world — including the debate’s organizers and non-delusional rival candidates — is aware of this fact. Trump isn’t participating in the debates because he doesn’t need to: He would be lowering himself to share a stage with people who pretend to be rivals, but are really just the warm-up act for his coronation.

That doesn’t mean the debate is entirely pointless. The other candidates get something out of being on that stage, like improving their future political prospects or satisfying a need for attention. And if you squint, you might get an actually interesting window into the policy debates that will define a post-Trump Republican party.

But, of course, we are not yet even close to “post-Trump.” In presenting it as an actual presidential debate, rather than a discussion between somewhat prominent Republicans, the debate’s organizers are lying to you. With Trump absent, and facing no serious challengers, this is all make-believe politics — a ritual the party goes through to cover up the dark reality of what the party has become.

The debate is fake. Donald Trump’s grip on the GOP is not.

What the “debate” really is

The case for taking the debate seriously amounts to seeing it as a kind of play-in competition: The candidates are duking it out for the right to become the One True Challenger to Donald Trump.

To understand why this isn’t true, it’s worth charting the trajectory of the candidate who previously held that mantle: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

In mid-February, DeSantis was within striking difference, coming in roughly 2 percentage points below Trump in the FiveThirtyEight national poll average. But since then, his numbers have been on a striking downward trajectory. A disastrously run campaign, hampered by the candidate’s robotic and unlikeable personality, has tanked the primary electorate’s interest in the Florida governor.

Today, he is a whopping 41 percentage points behind Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s average. That’s only slightly better than Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s 49-point deficit in his fake bid to unseat President Biden. A recent poll in the critical early state of New Hampshire put DeSantis in fifth place. His presidential campaign has been so humiliating that it’s actually hurting him back home: The once-captive Florida Republican party is rebelling against a governor who now looks like a weakling.

And despite all of this, DeSantis is still in second place. His closest rival, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, sits at around 6 points in the national polling average. DeSantis didn’t lead to the rise of another Trump challenger, as the play-in theory would predict. Instead, it revealed that Trump’s hold on the party is as strong as ever — and it would take a miracle for anyone to break it.

As such, the Republican debate is not really a presidential debate at all.

Debates are, in theory, venues for candidates to present themselves to the public in the hope of winning their party’s nomination. But since the campaign is all but decided, to the point where Trump could completely skip the last debate with no consequence, that isn’t what’s happening.

Instead, the debate has been consumed by its secondary functions: lesser candidates jockeying for influence or attention.

Establishment candidates who perform well might be set up for a future run, either for the presidency or some lower federal office (see Nikki Haley). Trump-friendly candidates might do the same, or jump in line for a spot in his second administration (see Vivek Ramaswamy). Others might have weirder goals: Chris Christie seems desperate to get a measure of revenge on Trump, his longtime tormentor.

These are all potentially interesting storylines for political junkies. But in a true primary debate, the stakes are much higher: There are often a large percentage of undecided voters looking for a reason to pick one member of their party over another. This time, it’s very clear that Trump is going to walk to the nomination. The idea that any of these candidates can say “in my administration” or “when I’m president” with a straight face is absurd.

New York Magazine’s Eric Levitz recently argued that Trump’s undeniable authoritarian tendencies have put the mainstream press in a difficult position: Either it describes him accurately, and sounds like a “partisan rag,” or else it deceptively treats Trump and the Republican party he controls as essentially normal. Too often, he writes, they make the latter choice — acting like “an amnesiac, or an abusive household committed to keeping up appearances, losing itself in the old routines, in an effortful approximation of normality until it almost forgets what it doesn’t want to know.”

The breathless coverage of the presidential debate fits this description to a T. We are all pretending that this is something like what we’ve seen in the past, a normal event held by a normal party, when it’s actually a pageant masking the true nature of the Trump-enthralled GOP: a political vehicle of a strongman whose second term would represent an existential threat to American democracy.

Court Just Rejected Alabama

The Supreme Court Just Rejected Alabama’s Attempt to Deny Representation to Black Voters. Again.

A rare win for Black voters in the courts.

ARI BERMAN

The Supreme Court on Tuesday rejected Alabama’s attempt to avoid drawing a second majority-Black congressional district in a short order by Justice Clarence Thomas with no noted dissents. It marks the second time in three months that the court has rejected Alabama’s efforts to deny fair representation to Black voters.

In early 2022, a three-judge panel that included two appointees of Donald Trump found that Alabama violated the Voting Rights Act by failing to draw a second majority-Black congressional district in the state. Alabama has a Black population of 27 percent, but just one of the state’s seven congressional districts was likely to elect a candidate favored by Black voters under the maps drawn by Alabama Republicans. In June, the Supreme Court, in a surprise victory for voting rights, affirmed the lower court’s ruling in Allen v. Milligan, paving the way for Alabama to draw a second majority-Black district.

But over the summer, Alabama Republicans flagrantly defied the orders of the federal district court and the US Supreme Court. Instead of drawing a new majority-Black district, the state legislature in July drew a seat that was only 40 percent Black and would have been easily carried by Trump, while lowering the Black population in the state’s lone majority-minority district. Alabama Republicans admitted they consulted with Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy in a bid to keep the seat red.

The three-judge panel then struck down that new map in early September, using unusually pointed language to rebuke the state. “We do not take lightly federal intrusion into a process ordinarily reserved for the State Legislature,” the court wrote. “But we have now said twice that this Voting Rights Act case is not close. And we are deeply troubled that the State enacted a map that the State readily admits does not provide the remedy we said federal law requires.”

Alabama appealed to the Supreme Court again, challenging the constitutionality of the Voting Rights Act with help from Federalist Society co-chairman Leonard Leo’s dark money network.

But the appeal was unsuccessful. Meanwhile, the three-judge panel ordered a special master to draw new lines for the state. He submitted three plans on Monday that all create a second district where Black voters comprise a majority of the voting age population or close to it.

After a three-year fight, it appears that Black voters will finally have a chance to achieve fair representation in Alabama in 2024.

Must Dissolve Businesses

Trump Defrauded Lenders and Must Dissolve Businesses, Judge Rules

The New York Supreme Court found the ex-president’s defense “wholly without basis in law or fact.” 

RUSS CHOMA

Donald Trump committed massive fraud in the state of New York and must shutter his businesses there, a judge ruled Tuesday afternoon. The ruling—if it stands, a massive blow to the former president’s business empire, essentially gutting it and potentially undermining all his finances—comes as part of a $250 million civil fraud lawsuit brought against him by New York Attorney General Letitia James. James has been battling Trump for several years, investigating claims that he manipulated the values of various properties in order to get better deals from banks and insurers. Trump and his attorneys have fought bitterly, but, as New York Supreme Court Judge Arthur Engoron noted in his ruling, have largely failed to present any defense.

A trial is still set to start early next month to deal with several other charges James has brought against Trump, mainly involving the falsification of business records. According to the lawsuit, Trump would routinely overvalue properties when offering them as collateral for bank loans and insurance coverage. In the run-up to the trial, Trump’s attorneys have offered several arguments, among them that James’ office has no standing to pursue the case, that there was no fraud because Trump never defaulted on a loan borrowed using an inflated valuation, that valuation is a flexible concept, and that the value of any property is in the eye of the beholder. After reviewing both sides’ evidence and arguments, Engoron said he didn’t need a trial to determine that Trump had committed fraud.

“The documents here clearly contain fraudulent valuation that the defendants used in businesses,” Engoron found. “Defendants respond that: the documents do not say what they say, that there is no such thing as objective value, and that essentially the court should not believe its own eyes.”

In a rambling deposition, Trump repeatedly claimed that his submissions to banks and insurance companies came with a disclaimer: essentially, that no one should take his valuations too seriously. That so-called “worthless disclaimer,” Trump claimed, absolved him of liability. He also said that people had offered him enormous sums of money for certain properties, apparently in an effort to prove that paper valuations by accountants and real estate analysts don’t mean very much. Engoron was not persuaded—at all.

“The ‘worthless disclaimer’ argument is worthless,” he wrote. “The defenses Donald Trump attempts to articulate in his sworn deposition are wholly without basis in law or fact.” 

The fact that Trump didn’t default on his loans is irrelevant, Engoron wrote, agreeing with James’ office that fraudulent claims have to be policed, even if there was no harm to consumers. Property valuation methods, the judge said, are well-established and inflexible. 

“It’s just not true that value is in the eye of the beholder, and [James’ office] establishes a discrepancy between $812 million and $2.2 billion,” Engoron noted. “Even in the world of high finance, this court cannot endorse a proposition that finds a misstatement of at least $812 million to be immaterial.”

Engoron was also not impressed with the claim that people—including, Trump hinted, the Saudi Arabian government or its state-backed LIV Golf tournament —would be willing to buy some of his properties for outlandish sums, which the judge said “may suggest influence buying more than savvy investing.” 

Engoron used a large part of the ruling to excoriate Trump’s attorneys, who he said in the ruling were operating “in a fantasy world” and who, at the Attorney General’s request, he fined $7,500 apiece for repeatedly fielding the same incorrect arguments after Engoron had ruled them invalid.

“Defendants’ conduct in reiterating these frivolous arguments is egregious,” Engoron wrote. “We are at the point of intentional and blatant disregard of controlling authority and the law of the case.”

According to Engoron’s ruling, Trump’s businesses in New York—including at least the 40 Wall Street office building, a golf course in Westchester County, and a slew of other commercial properties—must be shuttered, and receivers identified within 10 days to manage their dissolution. The fate of other notable Trump properties, like Trump Tower, will likely be hashed out in the upcoming trial. It wasn’t immediately clear how that would play out. Chris Kise, an attorney on Trump’s defense team, provided a statement:

“Today’s outrageous decision is completely unhinged from the facts and governing law. The decision seeks to nationalize one of the most successful corporate empires in the United States and seize control of private property all while acknowledging there is zero evidence of any default, breach, late payment or any complaint of harm…While the full impact of the decision remains unclear, what is clear is that President Trump will seek all available appellate remedies to rectify this miscarriage of justice.”

On Truth Social, the social media app he owns, Trump complained about the ruling in messages that essentially repeated the arguments Engoron had dismissed, adding, “It is a great company that has been slandered and maligned by this politically motivated Witch Hunt. It is very unfair, and I call for help from the highest Courts in New York State, or the Federal System, to intercede. THIS IS NOT AMERICA!”

Record-breaking

Record-breaking rain soaks northwest California

By Amy Graff

An atmospheric river soaked northwest California on Monday into early Tuesday morning, delivering record-breaking rainfall amounts and dampening wildfires. 

Meteorologists are saying the system was unusually strong for an early-season storm. The heaviest rain was reported in Oregon and far Northern California, but light rain made its way down into the Sacramento Valley and the San Francisco Bay Area. 

“Typically, this is the type of storm that we’d see more so in November than September,” Jonathan Garner, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Eureka office, said over the phone. “It’s a little early in the season for this type of rainfall event, but it’s not unheard of.”

Could this storm be an indication that California’s winter is going to be wet? “I don’t think that can be determined yet,” Garner said. “It could just be an anomalous event. It’s hard to say.”

In California, the heaviest rainfall was seen in an area that roughly stretches from Eureka to the California-Oregon border. Both Eureka and Crescent City broke same-day rainfall records for Sept. 25 by over a half-inch, the weather service said on social media. 

Eureka measured 1.56 inches; the previous record was 1.01 inches, measured in 1923. Crescent City saw an impressive 2.30 inches, surpassing its 1930 record of 1.11 inches. The King Range saw the highest totals, with a gauge on Cooskie Mountain recording 4.68 inches. 

The 2023 SRF Lightning Complex, which has delivered wildfire smoke to the Bay Area, received a soaking. Garner said the weather service doesn’t have access to a rain gauge in the fire area that straddles Del Norte and Humboldt counties, so exact totals aren’t available. He estimated a few inches fell based on the fact that Del Norte County generally recorded 2 to 4 inches and Humboldt County saw 1 to 2 inches.

“The rainfall is definitely moistening up the fuels in Humboldt and Del Norte counties where we saw the most rain,” he said. “That will reduce the wildfire risk.”

The Sacramento Valley saw only light showers, receiving traces of rain, while some locations in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada recorded a couple of tenths of an inch. The town of Paradise measures 0.25 inch. 

Jeffrey Wood, a meteorologist with the weather service’s Sacramento office, said, “Most of the heavy rain was contained to our north and our west.”

In the San Francisco Bay Area, the North Bay recorded the highest rainfall totals, and areas south of the Golden Gate saw only light sprinkles. Cazadero measured 0.54 inch, Occidental 0.51, Santa Rosa 0.16 inch of rain, San Francisco and Half Moon Bay 0.07, and Oakland 0.03.

Arp 142


What's happening to this spiral galaxy? Just a few hundred million years ago, NGC 2936, the upper of the two large galaxies shown at the bottom, was likely a normal spiral galaxy -- spinning, creating stars -- and minding its own business. But then it got too close to the massive elliptical galaxy NGC 2937, just below, and took a turn. Sometimes dubbed the Hummingbird Galaxy for its iconic shape, NGC 2936 is not only being deflected but also being distorted by the close gravitational interaction. Behind filaments of dark interstellar dust, bright blue stars form the nose of the hummingbird, while the center of the spiral appears as an eye. Alternatively, the galaxy pair, together known as Arp 142, look to some like Porpoise or a penguin protecting an egg. The featured re-processed image showing Arp 142 in great detail was taken recently by the Hubble Space Telescope. Arp 142 lies about 300 million light years away toward the constellation of the Water Snake (Hydra). In a billion years or so the two galaxies will likely merge into one larger galaxy.

Horse's head


Do you see the horse's head? What you are seeing is not the famous Horsehead nebula toward Orion, but rather a fainter nebula that only takes on a familiar form with deeper imaging. The main part of the here-imaged molecular cloud complex is reflection nebula IC 4592. Reflection nebulas are made up of very fine dust that normally appears dark but can look quite blue when reflecting the visible light of energetic nearby stars. In this case, the source of much of the reflected light is a star at the eye of the horse. That star is part of Nu Scorpii, one of the brighter star systems toward the constellation of the Scorpion (Scorpius). A second reflection nebula dubbed IC 4601 is visible surrounding two stars above and to the right of the image center.

Kosovo attack

US envoy says Kosovo attack ‘coordinated and sophisticated’

US ambassador warns of further escalation after shootout.

BY MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG

The United States has concluded that a weekend attack by suspected Serbian militia in northern Kosovo, leaving one officer and three gunmen dead, was intended to destabilize the region and is warning of potential further escalation between the longtime enemies.  

“We know it was coordinated and sophisticated,” U.S. Ambassador to Kosovo Jeffrey M. Hovenier told POLITICO, adding the gunmen appeared to have had military training. “The quantity of weapons suggests this was serious, with a plan to destabilize security in the region.”

Kosovo police said a group of about 30 heavily armed Serbs ambushed a police patrol early Sunday, killing one officer and injuring another, before fleeing and taking refuge in a nearby Orthodox monastery. The three gunmen were killed in an ensuing shootout with police and two were arrested. Most of the Serbian gunmen managed to sneak out of the monastery and escape on foot, Kosovo authorities said.

Western officials said the incident reflected heightened geopolitical strains in the Balkans, as Russia, frustrated by Europe’s strong support for Ukraine, tries to use its sway with allies in Serbia and elsewhere to stoke tensions, particularly in Bosnia and Kosovo.

Hovenier said the U.S. had yet to determine whether Serbia was responsible for the ambush, as Kosovo alleges, but he said the gear seized by the authorities, which included missile launchers, mines, and an armored personnel carrier, was of “military grade not available to the average citizen.” He said the U.S. had no reason to doubt that weapons and other equipment presented by Kosovo police at a press conference on Monday were not those found at the scene.

“The people we hold the most accountable are the people who fired upon the Kosovo police officer,” Hovenier said.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić denied Belgrade was involved in the attack, insisting it was the work of local Kosovo Serbs provoked by Prime Minister Albin Kurti, who has increased policing in the disputed region in recent months.

It’s unclear whether the gunmen sought the confrontation with Kosovo police on Sunday or were planning a longer-term operation and happened to run across a Kosovo police squad, western officials said.

The EU and U.S. have tried for years to broker a lasting peace between Serbia and Kosovo but a deal remained elusive amid continued divisions over the status of northern Kosovo, where a majority of the population is Serbian.

Belgrade continues to regard Kosovo as a breakaway province. The country declared independence in 2008, nearly a decade after a NATO bombing campaign forced Serbian forces to withdraw from the region.

During the war about 10,000 people were killed in Kosovo, which is more than 90 percent ethnically Albanian.

Despite the deep distrust between the two sides, Hovenier said Western efforts to achieve peace must continue.

Calling the incident “extremely unfortunate,” he said he hoped it would “provide incentives in both Belgrade and Pristina to pursue good neighborly relations.”

Niger debacle

France’s Niger debacle marks end of an era in Africa

Calls grow for Paris to rethink its relationship with African nations, including a military reduction in the restive region.

BY LAURA KAYALI AND CLEA CAULCUTT

France’s days as a military power in Africa are numbered.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to withdraw from Niger signals the end of an era for France — one marked by military interventions in the West African Sahel region, and a sense in Paris that its former colonies in Africa were still in some way France’s private preserve. 

For more than two months, Macron took a defiant stance, ignoring the ultimatum set by the junta in Niger, who came to power in July after a military coup. France refused to engage with the junta leaders or move on their demands to remove French troops stationed in the country to fight terrorism.

But in the face-off between France and the putschists, Paris blinked first. 

On Sunday, Macron announced that France would gradually withdraw its 1,500 soldiers by the end of the year and that France’s ambassador, who had been living under quasi house arrest in the capital Niamey, would be brought home. The ambassador, Sylvain Itté, returned home Wednesday with six of his colleagues.

The repercussions of this decision, which comes in the wake of forced withdrawals from neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali, are being felt far and wide. It’s the latest blow in a series of setbacks for Paris in the region, where France’s influence has waned significantly — replaced in some cases by Russia — in a context where former colonies are seeking to diversify their partnerships. 

The key questions now are where the soldiers stationed in Niger will go, what Paris will do with the military bases it still has left in Africa and how it will continue the fight against Islamist terrorism in the region. The ouster from Niger has triggered calls among observers and even within French diplomatic circles for France to truly overhaul how it engages with African nations, including by reducing its military footprint on the continent as a whole.

“The deep trend confirms itself: our military presence is no longer accepted. We need to totally rethink our relationship to Africa,” said a former French diplomat, who like other officials quoted here, was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. “We have been kicked out of Africa, we need to depart from other countries before we get told to go,” the former diplomat added. 

Walk the talk

In February, Macron promised France would commit to a new type of military relationship with African nations — one that wouldn’t be tainted with neo-colonialist undertones, but rather be a partnership of equals. Aiming for a reset in the region, Macron announced a fundamental overhaul of France’s Africa strategy where it would fight terrorism alongside local governments.

There are about 6,700 French soldiers reportedly still deployed on the African continent, including in Chad, Senegal, Ivory Coast and Gabon. In the Sahel region, Paris has repeatedly explained that French armed forces were present at the request of governments seeking to contain a jihadist insurgency. 

However, the ease with which military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger — as well as hostile powers such as Russia — have fueled and inflamed anti-French sentiment shows there’s a different perception among local populations, according to Pierre Haroche, lecturer in international relations and international security at the Queen Mary University of London. 

“The French presence has become very counterproductive, France with all the goodwill in the world can’t do much with the population and the armies against them,” he said. “If France is to retain a presence, it must be as invisible as possible, probably through the EU.” 

“It’s the end of a model in which France is seen as Africa’s policeman,” Haroche added. 

Despite Macron’s stated reset of relations with African nations, some officials argue the French armed forces and network of diplomats have been slow to change their ways.

“We need to pull our military bases. But there are internal issues, how to make [the withdrawals] acceptable to our armed forces. It means we will no longer have a fighting army,” said a former French official. Indeed, unlike French soldiers stationed on Europe’s Eastern flank, whose main missions are surveillance and training, troops in the Sahel are engaged in combat operations. 

The French president’s office declined to comment for this article.

Global influence challenged

For the French political elite, the Sahel debacle strikes a sensitive chord, feeding fears that France might be losing its status as a global power. 

The debate has been so acute that Macron promised opposition parties there would be a public debate with lawmakers on France’s policy in the Sahel, which could take place as early as November.  

“There’s this feeling on the French side that the military presence [in the Sahel region] was one of the last symbols of France’s hard power and, in particular, of the country’s self-perception as a great world power,” said Djenabou Cisse, a researcher for the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research. 

Paris will need to come to terms, at least in the short term, that it will have less control over what’s happening in the Sahel region — including when it comes to fighting terrorism — and re-engage with African governments throughout the continent in a new, less militarized way, Cisse said.

Redeploying French forces from Niger to Chad or even Ivory Coast would amount to kicking the can down the road, the researcher noted. 

“For France, it’s about mourning and giving up a part of its history to enter a new chapter,” she said.

Deliver first F-16 jets

Netherlands to deliver first F-16 jets to Ukraine in 2024

Dutch defense minister says she estimates pilot training will take six to eight months.

BY CLAUDIA CHIAPPA

The Netherlands is planning to deliver its first F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine at some point in 2024, the country’s defense minister, Kajsa Ollongren, said Tuesday.

Before the jets can be delivered, pilots, crew and technicians all have to be trained to fly and fight in the jets, Ollengren said during an interview with MSNBC. She did not give an exact answer on how long the training would last, but estimated it would be between six and eight months.

“These things do take time,” Ollengren said. “I think the most important thing is the signal we’re sending, not only to Kyiv but also to Moscow and the Kremlin. That is: We are there.”

The Netherlands, Denmark and Norway all announced that they would provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, following approval from the U.S. allowing Ukrainian pilots to be trained. The move was hailed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who spent months pressing the West to provide his forces with modern jets to repel Moscow’s full-scale invasion.

Ollongren said Tuesday the Netherlands is transitioning to F-35s, which is why it is finally able to give Ukraine the F-16s. And while the F-16s alone will not “make Ukraine win the war,” they will help Ukraine’s air defense.

“It’s an excellent weapons system,” she said. “That’s why it is so important that they do get it.”

Ollengren also said a training center for pilots should be up and running in Romania “as soon as possible.”

Denmark started training eight Ukrainian pilots to fly the jets in August, while the United States said training for Ukrainian pilots would start in October, after the pilots have received English language training.

Spectator speaker

California Dem calls McCarthy ‘a spectator speaker’

“He may have the title, but Donald Trump and Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz, they all share the job,” Eric Swalwell said.

By KIERRA FRAZIER

Kevin McCarthy may have the title of House speaker but there are other Republicans holding the reins as the government stumbles toward a shutdown, Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday.

“Kevin McCarthy is a spectator speaker. He may have the title, but Donald Trump and Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz, they all share the job,” Swalwell (D-Calif.) said on MSNBC’s “Inside with Jen Psaki.”

Swalwell’s comments Sunday are part of a broader criticism of McCarthy who has faced backlash from fellow Republicans accusing him of failing to lead his party, which holds a slim majority in the House.

The House has yet to pass legislation to fund the government amid Republican infighting with hardliners who have promised to object to any stopgap measure. McCarthy wants to deliver a GOP opening bid to the Democratic Senate while also holding back a rebellion by far-right members of his party, some of whom have called for McCarthy’s removal as speaker. Government funding is set to run out Sept. 30.

Swalwell said the problem is that McCarthy is “only worried about his own job and keeping it” rather than those of Americans who would be impacted by the government shutdown.

“McCarthy could simply bring forward the same legislation that Senator Schumer and McConnell have worked on in the Senate, that President Biden would sign, and be an adult and put the country first, and we would fund the government before funding run out,” Swalwell said.

“But, instead, the House Republicans are failures. They are the failures. They failed to govern. And because they can’t govern, they failed to fund. And because they can’t fund on every core area where we need government, they’re going to fail to protect.”

FOUND GUILTY... Overvalued their assets by between $812 million and $2.2 billion!!!!

Trump fraudulently inflated his net worth by up to $2.2 billion, New York judge rules

The ruling is a blow for Trump and his business empire in the run-up to a civil fraud trial.

By ERICA ORDEN

A state judge Tuesday found Donald Trump and his company liable for fraud for inflating his net worth in order to deceive banks and insurers, resolving one of the key claims in a civil fraud lawsuit brought by the New York state attorney general just days before a trial is set to start.

Attorney General Tish James’ office “has submitted conclusive evidence” that the former president and his co-defendants overvalued their assets by between $812 million and $2.2 billion from the years 2014 to 2021, the judge, Arthur Engoron, wrote in a court filing. “Even in the world of high finance, this Court cannot endorse a proposition that finds a misstatement of at least $812 million to be ‘immaterial.’”

As part of his ruling, the judge canceled the business certificates of all of the defendants, which include the Trump Organization itself and numerous LLCs connected to the company, as well as the business certificates of any entity “controlled or beneficially owned by” Trump, his adult sons, the Trump Organization’s former chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg and company executive Jeffrey McConney.

Engoron ordered that within 10 days of the ruling, Trump and the other defendants must provide names of potential independent receivers “to manage the dissolution of the canceled LLCs.”

The ruling, which comes ahead of a trial set for Oct. 2, is a significant defeat for Trump, who built his business career and political campaigns by boasting about his personal and professional achievements, and now instead has been found to have been peddling bogus claims of financial success.

The lawsuit accuses Trump and the other defendants of creating more than 200 misleading evaluations of the company’s finances, as well as other forms of misrepresentation, and it seeks $250 million in damages and a lifetime bar on the Trumps from serving as officers or directors in any New York companies.

In a statement, James said: “Today, a judge ruled in our favor and found that Donald Trump and the Trump Organization engaged in years of financial fraud. We look forward to presenting the rest of our case at trial.”

An attorney for Trump, Chris Kise, said the ruling is “completely disconnected from the facts and governing law,” and vowed to appeal it.

Engoron’s ruling didn’t resolve all of the claims in James’ lawsuit, with the judge saying there are disputed factual issues related to those claims that require a trial. The judge also granted the attorney general’s request to sanction Trump’s lawyers, ordering that each of them pay a $7,500 penalty.

Long-range missiles

Biden agrees to send long-range missiles to Ukraine

But administration officials still insist that ATACMS won’t be a magic bullet.

By JONATHAN LEMIRE, ALEXANDER WARD, PAUL MCLEARY and LARA SELIGMAN

President Joe Biden promised his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that the United States will soon provide Kyiv with a small number of long-range missiles to help its war with Russia, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the matter.

Biden made the pledge to Zelenskyy during the Ukrainian leader’s visit to the White House on Thursday, fulfilling a long-held wish by Kyiv, according to the officials who like others for this story were granted anonymity to speak about private conversations.

The Army Tactical Missile Systems will likely be delivered to Ukraine in the coming weeks. The White House declined to comment on the matter

The news is a major win for Zelenskyy and officials in Kyiv, who have long sought the missiles. ATACMS have a range of 45 to 190 miles and Ukrainians have long argued that they are crucial to striking deep behind entrenched Russian positions along a 600-mile front line.

NBC first reported the news that the missiles had been approved.

Biden administration officials still insist that ATACMS won’t be a magic bullet. The 18-month war is still an artillery battle and advances are measured in feet, not miles. Clearing mines occupies soldiers’ time, stifling any swift maneuvers to retake territory. The newly supplied missiles will help Ukraine’s cause, then, but they won’t prove a game-changing weapon, U.S. officials assert.

Depending on when the missiles arrive, they will add to the pressure that Ukraine has been putting on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet based in Crimea in recent weeks. On Friday, Ukraine used long-range missiles to hit the fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol, after previously hitting drydocks holding a Russian warship and a submarine.

Complicating matters is that U.S. and European military officials estimate Ukraine has only another few weeks left to achieve key objectives in the counteroffensive before winter weather sets in and makes the fighting more difficult.

“There’s still a reasonable amount of time, probably about 30 to 45 days’ worth of fighting weather left,” Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley said recently. “Then the rains will come in; it will become very muddy, and it will be very difficult to maneuver.”

The decision to send ATACMS comes as the United Kingdom and France are wavering on whether they’ll continue to deliver long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine. London and Paris have sent their Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles, which reach roughly 150 miles, respectively.

However, France will halt shipments of the SCALPs in the near term because they are needed for Paris’ own coffers, said Gen. Stéphane Mille, chief of staff of France’s air and space force, in a Monday briefing.

Mille also hinted that Paris is rethinking how much longer it can continue to send significant amounts of its own weapons to Ukraine.

“After two years we need now to have another discussion, because we cannot give, give, give and see our systems going down for Ukraine,” he said.

Kyiv has also been pushing Germany to send its own Taurus cruise missiles, which have a range of more than 300 miles, but Berlin has so far refrained from doing so.

The Biden administration weighed the decision to send ATACMS for weeks. Earlier in September, Kyiv pressured Washington to make a call ahead of the U.N. General Assembly, where Zelenskyy hoped to celebrate the move with Biden. U.S. officials said that was too tight a timeline, though, noting that a decision had yet to reach Biden’s desk.

But there was movement behind the scenes. The week before the UNGA, national security adviser Jake Sullivan told congressional leaders that Biden might greenlight a variant of the weapon, according to two people familiar with the conversation.

Biden’s EV push

Ford taps the brakes on Biden’s EV push

By ARIANNA SKIBELL

Ford has hit pause on building an electric vehicle battery plant in Michigan, adding fuel to the larger political and economic battle over President Joe Biden’s climate goals.

The $3.5 billion facility would be the first to manufacture next-gen lithium, iron and phosphate batteries on U.S. soil — a major boon for Biden’s twin goals of slashing planet-warming pollution and boosting domestic manufacturing. It would also employ some 2,500 unionized workers — a key feature for a labor-friendly president.

Ford’s decision to halt work on the plant comes as the United Auto Workers approaches week three of its strike against the company, along with General Motors and Stellantis. Auto workers are demanding higher wages to make up for years of employee concessions to management, amid a shift to EVs that threatens a long-term erosion of UAW jobs.

The union characterized the pause as a “shameful, barely veiled threat by Ford to cut jobs,” writes Hannah Northey.

“Closing 65 plants over the last 20 years wasn’t enough for the Big Three, now they want to threaten us with closing plants that aren’t even open yet,” UAW President Shawn Fain said.

The facility also looms large in Republican messaging against Biden’s green agenda. GOP lawmakers object to Ford’s plan to use Chinese battery technology, and many are calling for a permanent cancellation of the plant, write James Bikales and Kelsey Tamborrino. So are some residents of Marshall, Mich., who launched a lawsuit to halt the facility earlier this year, citing potential environmental impacts to the Kalamazoo River.

But why?

Ford stopped short of offering a concrete reason for the pause, but said work on the facility would resume when company leadership is confident in “our ability to competitively operate the plant.”

Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s office tied the move to the UAW strike.

“Ford has been clear that this is a pause, and we hope negotiations between the Big 3 and UAW will be successful so that Michiganders can get back to work doing what they do best,” Whitmer’s press secretary Stacey LaRouche said.

Today, Biden joined a group of striking autoworkers on a picket line in Michigan, telling them through a megaphone that they “deserve a significant raise.”

Strike declared over

Strike by Hollywood writers declared over

But actors remain on the picket lines.

By ASSOCIATED PRESS

Leaders of Hollywood’s writers union declared their nearly five-month-old strike over Tuesday after board members approved a contract agreement with studios.

The governing boards of the eastern and western branches of the Writers Guild of America both voted to accept the deal, and afterward declared that the strike would be over and writers would be free to work starting at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday.

The writers still have to vote to ratify the contract themselves, but lifting the strike will allow them to work during that process, the Writers Guild told members in an email.

Hollywood actors remain on strike with no talks yet on the horizon.

A new spirit of optimism animated actors who were picketing Tuesday for the first time since writers reached their tentative deal Sunday night.

“For a hot second, I really thought that this was going to go on until next year,” said Marissa Cuevas, an actor who has appeared on the TV series “Kung Fu” and “The Big Bang Theory.” “Knowing that at least one of us has gotten a good deal gives a lot of hope that we will also get a good deal.”

Writers’ picket lines have been suspended, but they were encouraged to walk in solidarity with actors, and many were on the lines Tuesday, including “Mad Men” creator Matthew Weiner, who picketed alongside friend and “ER” actor Noah Wyle as he has throughout the strikes.

“We would never have had the leverage we had if SAG had not gone out,” Weiner said. “They were very brave to do it.”

Striking actors voted to expand their walkout to include the lucrative video game market, a step that could put new pressure on Hollywood studios to make a deal with the performers who provide voices and stunts for games.

The Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Radio and Television Artists announced the move late Monday, saying that 98 percent of its members voted to go on strike against video game companies if ongoing negotiations are not successful. The announcement came ahead of more talks planned for Tuesday.

Acting in video games can include a variety of roles, from voice performances to motion capture work as well as stunts. Video game actors went on strike in 2016 in a work stoppage that lasted nearly a year.

Some of the same issues are at play in the video game negotiations as in the broader actors strike that has shut down Hollywood for months, including wages, safety measures and protections on the use of artificial intelligence. The companies involved include gaming giants Activision, Electronic Arts, Epic Games, Take 2 Productions as well as Disney and Warner Bros.′ video game divisions.

Grilled

DeSantis top aide grilled over map that dismantled seat held by Black Democrat

The ongoing federal trial is separate from a different legal challenge in state court.

By GARY FINEOUT

A federal trial that could upend one of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ significant political victories began Tuesday with one of his top aides spending hours on the witness stand defending the legality of a congressional map that dismantled the North Florida district once held by a Black Democrat.

Voting and civil rights groups contend the map muscled through the Republican-controlled Legislature last year is discriminatory and unconstitutional, a charge denied by DeSantis and his administration. A three-judge panel is considering the case and could ultimately rule that the map needs to be changed.

The trial, scheduled to stretch over the next week or so, kicked off with a back and forth with Alex Kelly, the acting chief of staff for DeSantis who was the chief mapmaker who drew up the plan that ultimately netted the GOP four seats and helped them win back the U.S. House during the 2022 elections.

During his lengthy testimony, Kelly faulted past rulings by the Florida Supreme Court related to redistricting, questioned how the Legislature handled redistricting at times and made comments that appeared at odds with statements he made in his own depositions.

Kelly also insisted that the map that DeSantis has recently touted on the campaign trail as helping Republicans win the House last year was not drawn for “partisan” reasons or to help any incumbents — factors that are not allowed under Florida’s voter-approved anti-gerrymandering standards.

In one notable exchange, Kelly also insisted to one of the lead lawyers questioning him that he had no idea that he was bolstering the percentage of white voters in four districts by splitting up the seat that had been held by Rep. Al Lawson.

“I had no reason to look at racial and ethnic data in North Florida,” Kelly testified.

The ongoing federal trial is separate from a different legal challenge in state court, although both primarily focus on Lawson’s dismantled seat. In the state case, a Florida circuit judge ruled earlier this month that the redrawn district violates the state’s Constitution and ordered the GOP-led Legislature to create a new map. That ruling has been appealed and will be taken up by a state appeals court later this fall.

The scope of the state lawsuit was narrowed right before trial and was confined to a single day of legal arguments and no witness testimony.

Lawyers representing the groups and individuals suing in federal court — which includes the democracy advocacy organization Common Cause and NAACP — plan to bring in experts to talk about Florida’s history and whether it can be shown that what the governor did was discriminatory, although there won’t be much direct evidence that delves into the behind-the-scenes machinations.

Instead, the legal battle is focusing on DeSantis’ unusual decision to insert himself into the redistricting process by offering up his own maps and then vetoing the initial proposal by the Republican-dominated Legislature that would have preserved a Jacksonville-based district where Black voters would have remained a substantial minority. DeSantis’ general counsel at the time contended that this district diluted Black voting power too much.

Kelly on Tuesday was asked about DeSantis’ motivations for pushing the map despite the initial reluctance of the Legislature. DeSantis had argued that Lawson’s old district — which stretched roughly 200 miles from Jacksonville to just west of Tallahassee — violated the U.S. Constitution’s equal protection clause.

U.S. District Judge M. Casey Rodgers, an appointee of former President George W. Bush, pressed Kelly to cite a court ruling that backed up DeSantis’ argument that Lawson’s former district was unconstitutional. Kelly acknowledged that he didn’t know.

When it was pointed out by the plaintiffs’ attorneys that the Florida Supreme Court had established Lawson’s district in 2015 by determining the Legislature back then violated the state’s Fair Districts amendment, Kelly responded at least two times that the “Florida Supreme Court got it wrong.”

Kelly made this assertion even though, in a June deposition he gave in the state case, he said that he had not read the 2015 Florida Supreme Court decision that resulted in the creation of the seat. When asked about this outside the courtroom, Kelly responded that “reading” the entire ruling is “different than understanding that the result was wrong.”

Kelly also said there were times that he did think the Legislature’s initial analysis about redistricting was not “reasonable” and he was not pleased with how lawmakers treated an expert who was brought in to defend the governor’s proposal at a legislative hearing.

Kathay Feng, Common Cause vice president for programs who was on hand for the trial, contended that Kelly’s testimony showed that the DeSantis administration was struggling to explain their actions.

“There’s a lot of twisting and turning, there’s a lot of fabrication, there’s a lot of denial of history,” Feng said.

Doubles down....

Defiant Menendez doubles down against resignation calls

A tranche of influential state Democrats have publicly called for Menendez’s resignation after the indictment was unsealed Friday.

By DANIEL HAN

A defiant Sen. Bob Menendez on Monday doubled down that he will not resign under the cloud of a damning federal bribery indictment and a state party apparatus that has largely abandoned him.

The remarks were made in Union City, Menendez’s hometown where he started his political career as a school board member in the 1970s and eventually became mayor. Menendez said “this will be the biggest fight yet” for him, although he doubled down on his innocence. He did not take questions.

“The allegations leveled against me are just that — allegations,” he said from Hudson County College. He added, “I firmly believe that when all the facts are presented, not only will I be exonerated, but I will still be New Jersey’s senior senator.”

Menendez is accused of using his office to benefit New Jersey businesspeople and the Egyptian government in exchange for gold bars, cash and a new luxury vehicle, among other things.

The charges made by federal prosecutors from the Southern District of New York, he said, were made to be “as salacious as possible.” The senator addressed some of the allegations put forth by federal prosecutors, who searched his home in Bergen County in June 2022. Prosecutors found $550,000 in cash as well as gold bars in the house and a safe deposit box, which they say Menendez received as bribes.

“For 30 years I have withdrawn thousands of dollars in cash from my personal savings account which I have kept for emergencies and because of the history of my family facing confiscation in Cuba,” Menendez said. “This may seem old fashioned, but these were monies drawn from my personal savings account based on the income I have lawfully derived over those 30 years.”

He did not address, however, why he allegedly had bars of gold as well as a new luxury vehicle — the latter of which prosecutors say he obtained in exchange for interfering in a state criminal prosecution for an associate. He also did not address allegations from prosecutors that cash found in his home had DNA or fingerprints from co-defendants in the indictment and people linked to them.

Menendez, who until recently was the chair of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is also accused by prosecutors for using his office to influence weapons deals to Egypt in exchange for bribes. Menendez said it was “indisputable” that he was “on the side of civil society and human rights defenders in Egypt” and has “challenged [Egyptian] President [Abdel Fattah El] Sisi directly.”

“I have always worked to hold accountable those countries including Egypt for human rights abuses and repression of its citizenry … those who now are attempting to malign my actions as it relates to Egypt simply don’t know the facts,” he said.

Menendez had roughly more than a dozen supporters and staffers lined up behind him. It is unclear who they all were — the lineup did not include any prominent elected officials and a spokesperson did not immediately identify them — although Menendez called them “everyday people and constituents.” It was a notable shift from his 2015 indictment when he quickly had top Democrats lined up to support him.

It’s Menendez’s third time being in the crosshairs of federal investigators since he entered the Senate and the second indictment on corruption charges over the past decade. He was indicted in 2015 on bribery allegations, although that ended in a mistrial. He was, however, admonished by the Senate Ethics Committee for the matter.

“Prosecutors get it wrong sometimes,” he said during the press conference “Sadly, I know that.”

This time, however, Menendez faces seemingly insurmountable political headwinds on top of his legal troubles.

A tranche of influential state Democrats — including Gov. Phil Murphy, state Democratic Chair LeRoy Jones and the state legislature’s Senate President and Assembly Speaker — have publicly called for Menendez’s resignation after the indictment was unsealed on Friday (should Menendez resign, Murphy would have the power to appoint a replacement to the Senate).

Menendez — while not directly mentioning anyone — said that “others have rushed to judgment because they see a political opportunity for themselves or those around them.”

Menendez’s defiance is characteristic, though he was forced to resign his powerful leadership position on the Foreign Relations Committee due to Senate rules Friday. But his unwillingness to step down also plays a practical purpose: To raise money for his legal defense.

Menendez did not announce he plans to seek reelection to the Senate in 2024, as was expected. Still, the race to challenge Menndez for his Senate seat in 2024 is quickly taking shape. U.S. Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) and progressive activist Larry Hamm have announced they will run for the seat. Other ambitious New Jersey Democrats — including Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill — are also mentioned as possible successors amongst the state’s chattering class.

There is some electoral history to suggest Menendez is in trouble if he does seek reelection. In 2018 after Menendez survived his first corruption indictment, a virtually unknown candidate with non-existent resources nearly got 40 percent of the vote against Menendez in the Democratic primary — and that was when he had the backing of state Democrats.

An open Senate seat in New Jersey is a golden opportunity for an ambitious New Jersey Democrat; the state has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Clifford Case won reelection in 1972. With the state’s overwhelming Democratic preference in statewide federal elections, that is unlikely to change. However, the prospect of Menendez being the Democratic nominee in 2024 could make the seat much more competitive.

Menendez as well as his wife, who is also charged in the case, and three New York businessmen are expected to appear in federal court Wednesday in Manhattan to address the charges.

Way Out?

History Offers Democrats a Way Out of the Menendez Problem

Oddly enough, it involves the very same seat the New Jersey senator refuses to resign.

By JOSHUA ZEITZ

Senator Robert Menendez had a bad week.

A New Jersey Democrat currently serving his third full term in the Senate, Menendez was indicted last Thursday by federal prosecutors who laid out an elaborate and damning case involving secret payments funneled through an American-based businessman, all tracing back to favors the senator allegedly performed on behalf of the Egyptian government.

Even for New Jersey, which a 2014 Harvard study named one of the two most politically corrupt states in the country, the details are eye-popping. Cash totaling almost half a million dollars stuffed into closets, drawers and clothes in Menendez’s home. Gold bars, the price of which the senator allegedly searched on the internet, totaling $100,000 in value. A Mercedes Benz.

Menendez is a notorious political brawler who has survived scandal before — in 2017, a jury deadlocked on corruption charges that could have sent him to prison for years. But his luck seems to have run out, with party leaders in New Jersey abandoning him in droves — particularly the state’s all-powerful county chairs, who largely determine the outcome of primary elections — and national Democrats like Sen. John Fetterman (Penn.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.) calling on him to resign.

In short, Menendez is done. Regardless of his legal fortunes, he’s not going to be renominated next year. But what about the remainder of this term? If history is an indication, that is entirely up to his colleagues in the Senate.

The Senate has not expelled a member of its body since 1862, during the Civil War. In modern times, only the threat of expulsion has compelled Senators to resign, rather than face the indignity of seeing their colleagues toss them out by vote. Several of those historical examples suggest that it’s possible for Senate Democrats to unhinge Menendez from his seat, but it won’t necessarily happen quickly.

No example proves this point better than the case of Harrison “Pete” Williams, the disgraced New Jersey politician who was convicted of crimes related to the famous ABSCAM case. Ironically, Bob Menendez currently fills the same seat that Williams ultimately resigned.

Between 1978 and 1980 the FBI conducted a sting operation in which agents posed as Arab businessmen and offered cash bribes to 31 elected officials. Ultimately, one senator and six House members took the bait.

Williams, a four-term Senator and leading liberal in Congress, was the highest-ranking official to go down. In a bizarre and intricate scheme, he agreed to help an undercover FBI agent posing as an Arab sheik to resolve hurdles in his U.S. immigration process in return for the sheik and his friends making a $100 million cash infusion in a mining business in which Williams held a secret 18 percent stake. Williams and his associates would then sell their interest to a second group of (fake) businessmen at a $70 million profit.

The parallels between the Williams and Menendez cases are striking. While Williams never had the opportunity to stash cash and gold in his home — after all, there was no deal to be had; it was a sting — both men were alleged to have funneled foreign payments through real companies (in the Menendez case, through a halal meat enterprise; in Williams’ case, a mining operation). Both men also allegedly turned their corruption into a family enterprise. Where Menendez’s wife has been indicted alongside her husband, FBI tapes showed that Williams boasted to undercover agents of an earlier scheme in which he pressured the state’s casino authorities to approve a deal that benefited a company that employed his wife in a low- or no-show job.

ABSCAM was somewhat controversial. Lawyers for the defense argued it was a classic case of entrapment, and in the case of Williams, there was something to the argument. During an initial encounter with the undercover agents, Williams seemed to demur. It took several months to get him on board. But once on board, he exhibited little compunction about profiting from his office and boasted frequently to agents of his past criminality.

When federal prosecutors indicted Williams in 1980, the Democratic-controlled Senate launched and then promptly suspended an official investigation, on the premise that such a parallel procedure would prejudice his criminal trial. But in May 1981, when a federal jury returned guilty verdicts on all counts, the Senate, now in Republican control, opened hearings. It took roughly three months for the Ethics Committee to vote unanimously for a resolution to expel Williams, and over the course of the year, Williams, who was appealing his conviction, tangled with his colleagues in federal court over their right to expel him and the proper scope of a full Senate trial.

It didn’t help his case that he was unrepentant. To his dying day, Williams would claim he was convicted of a “dishonest crime,” meaning he was entrapped, because “somebody else creates the situation for which you are convicted.”

When one of Williams’ defenders, Hawaii Sen. Daniel Inouye, recommended that the body censure, rather than expel their colleague, arguing that expulsion had traditionally been reserved for cases of treason and insurrection, his Democratic colleague, Thomas Eagleton of Missouri, answered in disgust: “If non-treasonous behavior be the sole benchmark of fitness to serve in this body, then one must ask how fit is this body in which we serve?” Eagleton emerged as one of Williams’ most vocal critics and argued that if the convicted politician wouldn’t do them the dignity of vacating his seat, “we should not perpetrate our own disgrace by asking him to stay.”

Ultimately, Williams ran down the clock. Only when his appeals were rejected in late 1981 and only when it became clear that the Senate would expel him on a bipartisan basis, did he relent. In March 1982 — more than two years after his initial indictment — he resigned his seat.

That’s not a story that augurs well for a speedy outcome in the Menendez case. While good money suggests his Senate days are numbered, Menendez is likely to hold on for as long as possible, if for no other reason than to maintain negotiating leverage with prosecutors and to raise money for his defense. He will become an albatross around the necks of fellow New Jersey Democrats and House and Senate colleagues in tough races. His presence in the Senate makes it all the harder for Democrats to build a case against GOP corruption next year.

More recent examples don’t suggest a different outcome. In November 1992, multiple women accused Sen. Bob Packwood (R-Ore.) of sexual misconduct. It took almost three years for a long ethics process to unwind — one that did little credit to Packwood or to the Senate. Facing the likelihood of expulsion, in October 1995, Packwood finally resigned. The same was true of Sen. John Ensign, a Nevada Republican who allegedly arranged illegal hush payments and a lobbying job for a woman with whom he had an extramarital affair. It took almost two years after the first revelations of misconduct before Ensign agreed to resign, and again, only because his colleagues seemed prepared to expel him.

All of which means, it’s in the Senate Democrats’ hands. They can drag it out, or they can expedite expulsion proceedings and make it clear to Menendez that he can leave quietly out the back door, or they can toss him out the front in full light of day.

Everyone deserves their moment in court, but there is a difference between legal and political proceedings.

Bob Menendez deserves the opportunity to explain to his colleagues how, on a senator’s salary, he came to possess a Mercedes-Benz C-300 convertible (sticker price, $60,000) and $100,000 in gold bars, to say nothing of envelopes of cash bearing the fingerprints of his co-defendants. He should also have the opportunity to explain why he presumably never reported these assets or paid taxes on them. But the Senate doesn’t need to wait for his criminal trial to unfold before initiating its own investigation, and it shouldn’t take months for such a process to play out. There is evidence in abundance that allows for a speedy resolution of his ethics case and a vote on the Senate floor.

The modern record suggests that embattled Senators will cling to their seats tenaciously, only until they know the die has been cast. Chuck Schumer and his caucus have a job to do. History shows them exactly how to get it done.

Shutdown-prevention plan

Senate moves shutdown-prevention plan that’s ‘not gonna happen’ in House

The addition of some Ukraine aid to the bipartisan spending proposal has immediately imperiled the bill and irritated House Republicans, further risking a shutdown on Oct. 1.

By BURGESS EVERETT, SARAH FERRIS, CAITLIN EMMA and URSULA PERANO

The bipartisan Senate spending bill released Tuesday is a direct confrontation with the House GOP that risks raising the already high prospects of a government shutdown.

Though the Senate bill shortchanges President Joe Biden’s requests for Ukraine and disaster aid, it delivers far more robust funding for both priorities than some senators had contemplated just 24 hours earlier. It contains none of the spending cuts sought by conservatives and funds the government through Nov. 17 mostly at current levels — all things that House Republicans have declined to endorse.

The proposal also offers nothing to Speaker Kevin McCarthy on border policy, an issue that he’s now demanding must be at the center of any government funding deal to avoid a shutdown on Oct. 1. But senators in both parties said the chamber needs to make a move — and fast — given the dysfunction of the House.

“It seems to change every hour, if not by the minute in the House. So I don’t think they know what they can do at this point. But we know what we can do ... and that is to send over a [bill] and see what the speaker can do with it,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said.

Cornyn added that the Senate is flexible in its approach: “I don’t think there’s such a thing as a final offer. Whatever we need to do to keep the lights on.”

Though the bill might be able to pass the Senate by the time funding expires on Sunday morning, it “ain’t gonna pass the House,” said senior appropriator Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho). The legislation amounts to a challenge from one side of the Capitol to the other, where McCarthy has passed just one of his party’s own full-year spending bills. And it sets up exactly the situation that the speaker warned his rebellious conservatives was coming: paralyzed House Republicans getting jammed by the Senate with a bill they refuse to endorse.

“It’s not gonna happen over here. It’s not gonna happen on the Republican side,” Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.) said, pointing to the Ukraine aid.

The Senate took the first step forward on Tuesday in what’s likely to be an arduous journey this week through procedural hoops and tough floor negotiations. GOP senators are already openly planning to propose changes to the bill: Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said Tuesday evening he’ll be “pushing really, really hard tomorrow ... to get rid of that Ukraine funding.” That idea, though, would still hit a brick wall in the House, according to Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.).

Even if the stopgap spending patch can clear the upper chamber this week, it will do nothing to help McCarthy out of his jam.

Senators’ thinking on the bill evolved quickly over the past few days. Aides in both parties hinted they would craft a simple bill without too many add-ons to see if McCarthy would welcome the chance to take up a simple funding extension as the Sept. 30 deadline neared.

But in the end, the Senate changed course and embraced a strategy aimed at offering antsy lawmakers assurance that disaster and Ukraine assistance programs wouldn’t go entirely unfunded. The White House also made a late and sustained push to include more money for those priorities.

“It’s important for us to go and act. If we can get a good bipartisan vote, it will be an important signal to send to the House. And the speaker will recognize that he should not cater to a small group of extremists,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) said.

McCarthy is already facing the threat of a far-right rebellion, one that would be virtually guaranteed if he put any Senate-negotiated plan on the floor with billions of dollars in Ukraine aid — not to mention a lack of further spending cuts and no border policy changes.

Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio), a senior appropriator who leads the more centrist Republican Governance Group, made clear that he has little interest in a Senate-negotiated stopgap, also known as a continuing resolution or a CR.

“The plan is to get some kind of stopgap funding that includes border security that’s so necessary, to protect us from what the president has allowed to happen on the southern border,” Joyce said.

Instead, the House GOP is expected to pivot back to its own stopgap funding bill, with steep funding cuts and conservative border policy attached.

Monday afternoon, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer sold the bill as a shutdown prevention measure, calling it a “bridge” to more work on a more comprehensive spending plan. Immediately afterward, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell endorsed the bill and savaged the alternative: “Government shutdowns are bad news.”

“I’m more optimistic than when I was yesterday or the day before. At least we’ve got a vehicle to work with here,” Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) said.

The House has “got to look at the realities of this,” he added. “What they are trying to do is insert uncertainty in the process and waste money.”

But the bill is not the “clean” solution many had expected, and that is bound to create procedural hurdles in the Senate. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said he will slow down any bill with Ukraine aid, and he alone could probably cause a short shutdown by withholding unanimous consent for a quick vote on the measure released Tuesday night.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), meanwhile, is dissatisfied with the disaster relief money. Ukraine and disaster relief would receive roughly $6 billion each under the Senate’s plan. Asked if he’d hold the bill up, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said, “I’ll resolve those procedural questions as they come up.”

“We’ll just have to see how this plays out. ... I mean, it’s hard to predict. It really is,” said Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) of the bill’s fate.

McCarthy would have struggled mightily to bring a “clean” bill to the floor, even if the Senate tried to give him one — Republicans across the conference have demanded concessions on the border and other issues. Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) said “you can’t pass a clean CR here.”

McCarthy is already facing ultraconservatives still enraged over his debt-limit negotiating with Biden this spring, in addition to blatant threats to his gavel if he works with Democrats to avert a shutdown.

Those warnings from the right would include any bill blessed by McConnell.

McCarthy and his leadership team are instead devoting this week to passing their own party-line spending bills. But as they prepare to bring four of the GOP’s most popular proposals to the floor, it’s still not certain that any of them has the votes to pass, according to multiple GOP sources.

Some McCarthy allies had acknowledged that the speaker’s lack of options could eventually force him to put a Senate-approved stopgap on the House floor. But that would only have been an option if the plan remained free of extra spending priorities. Now the speaker is focused on securing border policy concessions from Democrats.

He floated, for the first time on Tuesday, that he would like a sitdown with Biden on the matter.

“The president could keep government open by doing something on the border,” McCarthy said.