Ugly GOP fight

Inside the increasingly ugly GOP fight over a Texas runoff

Tony Gonzales has made a lot of Republican enemies. Party leadership is still defending him, against his opponent “The AK Guy” and his own conservative colleagues.

By OLIVIA BEAVERS and ALLY MUTNICK

Rep. Tony Gonzales’ centrist voting record and willingness to excoriate his colleagues have earned him a fair share of GOP enemies. Party leaders are still dreading what happens if he loses a runoff this month.

The West Texan is battling for his political life after being forced into a primary runoff with a gun-rights YouTube star backed by members like Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and House Freedom Caucus Chair Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.). Brandon Herrera, known as “The AK Guy” after his affection for assault rifles, would likely align with rabble-rousers who have repeatedly challenged GOP leadership.

If Gonzales loses the runoff at the end of the month, Republican leaders would face two worse alternatives. They either risk losing the seat entirely thanks to an unpalatable Republican nominee — who has mocked the Holocaust, veterans’ suicides and Barron Trump — or they hold it but welcome into their ranks someone who is likely to further inflame internal caucus divisions.

“The reality is if Tony doesn’t win the primary, the Dems win the seat,” said Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas), who is backing Gonzales. “The guy that’s running against him could potentially win the primary, but he cannot win the general election. So, I think it’s a pretty clear choice. It should be for most people.”

Gonzales stunned many in his own party when he captured a sprawling rural Texas district in 2020 that many believed would be lost. But his votes in support of gun control and same-sex marriage earned him a host of enemies and a censure from the Texas GOP. And he’s not winning any popularity contests in Washington, either, after repeated public criticism of his colleagues.

Meanwhile, even lawmakers who don’t have a personal problem with Gonzales question why he’s held on to his centrist persona as his district grew redder during 2021 redistricting.

It takes uncommon political skill to survive a runoff as an incumbent. And Gonzales not only has to win over voters, but he also has to confront attacks from members of his own conference who are enthusiastically campaigning for Herrera. That enthusiasm only grew after Gonzales called conservatives “scumbags” in a recent TV interview and said Gaetz “paid minors to have sex with him at drug parties.”

“He’s never had a job before other than being a YouTuber. He’s used to saying a bunch of crazy things to get clicks,” Gonzales said in an interview. “Herrera isn’t going to win, and he isn’t even trying to win.”

Still, the Texas GOP’s maneuvers against Gonzales are perhaps the most appalling to fellow House members.

“I’m against the circular firing squad that has occurred recently in Texas politics,” said Rep. Jake Ellzey (R-Texas), who is backing Gonzales. “The Texas GOP is responsible for electing Republican candidates, not electing their own Republican candidates.”

While Speaker Mike Johnson is backing Gonzales, even attending a campaign fundraiser in his state, some Republicans are pushing for the speaker to revisit his joint fundraising committee’s relationship with the Texas state party — which has transferred funds to the very group working to oust his incumbent.

There has been a pause in that activity, at least, even as some of Gonzales’ allies push for a permanent end to it. The speaker’s joint fundraising committee did not disburse any money to the Texas GOP in the first quarter of this year, according to Federal Election Commission records.

Gonzales raised more than $1 million in the first quarter and has spent nearly twice as much on TV as Herrera, according to the media firm AdImpact. He has the support of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, House GOP leadership and $1.6 million in spending from the American Action Network, a nonprofit aligned with Johnson.

Another dynamic working in Gonzales’ favor: Donald Trump is remaining neutral in the primary — at least for now, according to an adviser who recently spoke with the former president and was granted anonymity to discuss a private conversation. Trump’s instinct may have been to endorse against Gonzales, who voted for the bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. But Trump is aware that Herrera mocked his youngest son and questioned whether he could win a general election, the person said.

Not to mention, Gonzales endorsed Trump on the day he launched his campaign.

There’s lingering frustration among Gonzales’ allies, however, with how he’s chosen to run the race. Some warned him to take his primary challengers seriously but felt he was not receptive to advice — which landed him in a runoff, according to two different people familiar with his campaign.

In response, Gonzales in an interview took a shot at “consultants that sit in the ivory tower” and make suggestions about a district they don’t know well.

He received 45 percent of the vote in the first round of the primary, compared to Herrera’s 25 percent. And that’s a perilous place for Gonzales, as Herrera makes a play to consolidate the anti-incumbent vote.

“He needs to identify his people and get their asses out to vote. But man, it is a bad position to be in,” said one Texas House Republican, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the race.

Gonzales has shrugged off the threat. He’s complained he got “pigeon-holed” as a moderate member because he doesn’t “toe the line all the time.” He said he is a conservative at heart: “I just want to govern.”

“I feel good. I feel strong,” he said, noting that he’s survived a runoff before. “Runoffs are tough. This district is tough. But I feel good.”

In his sprawling border district, Gonzales has been outspoken about the migration crisis he is witnessing firsthand and the need for more gun control after 2022’s elementary school mass shooting in Uvalde. Herrera allies, meanwhile, suggest it is no mistake that a supporter of a bipartisan law that strengthened firearm regulations is now facing a pro-gun challenger.

Gaetz dismissed concerns that a Herrera primary win might cost the GOP in the general election, saying in an interview: “We barely have the seat now.”

The Florida conservative, who has taken on other incumbents this cycle, argued that Gonzales’ remarks on Rep. Chip Roy’s (R-Texas) border bill really energized his critics.

“When Tony Gonzalez called those of us fighting for border protections un-Christian, it struck a nerve. And we’d like that question to be litigated for Tony’s constituents,” Gaetz added.

Gonzales hasn’t taken the pushback quietly. He’s attacked Gaetz repeatedly and called his primary opponent a “neo-Nazi” on CNN late last month — a characterization Herrera fiercely disputes.

The Roy-Gonzales spat was perhaps one of the House GOP’s fiercest internal fights to spill out in public view — in a period that saw several ugly brawls. Some said it snowballed into a rift with others in the delegation.

“It won’t hurt my feelings at all if he loses that runoff,” a third Texas Republican said of Gonzales, also granted anonymity to speak candidly.

Texas’ 23rd District, which spans from the outskirts of San Antonio toward El Paso and includes 800 miles of the U.S.-Mexico border, used to be the most competitive seat in the entire state. But redistricting transformed it into a region that Trump would have won by 7 points, and Latino voters’ shift toward Trump since 2016 has further insulated the GOP.

Democrats would face a tall task in flipping the seat — Gonzales won by 17 points in 2022 — and it is not currently on their target list. The Democratic nominee, Santos Limon, is a civil engineer and small business owner with lackluster fundraising; he reported raising less than $100,000 as of mid-February. But, privately, some Democratic strategists agree a Herrera nomination would present a unique opportunity.

Notably, the last incumbent to survive a primary runoff did so in 2022 in a nearby district: Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar. That came after the FBI searched his home, sparking speculation that he was the subject of a criminal investigation, though charges didn’t surface at the time. (That changed Friday, when Cuellar was indicted.)

“Tony is going to win the seat,” Cuellar predicted in an interview last week, before he was charged.