Cuba collapse?????

‘People would attempt to flee’: Concern grows over possible Cuba collapse

The Trump administration is expressing confidence Cuba will fall, but there are concerns the US doesn’t have a plan.

By Alex Gangitano, Megan Messerly, Eric Bazail-Eimil and Diana Nerozzi

An economic collapse in Cuba, just 90 miles from Florida’s shores, could bring with it stark consequences for the United States, given the high risk of human suffering over lack of food, energy and other resources that could drive mass migration, according to five former U.S. officials who worked on Latin America policy.

And while the Trump administration believes Cuba will fail in the wake of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s capture, there is concern that the U.S. doesn’t have a plan to manage the fallout.

With the Trump administration exerting control over Venezuela, Cuba has lost one of its principal economic patrons and oil suppliers. The island, already in economic dire straits, will face even deeper financial problems unless it finds another government willing to provide it with the oil it once received from Venezuela — the import of which until a week ago it exchanged for money and personnel. Cuba has dodged collapse for decades but Maduro’s capture poses perhaps the greatest threat to the regime since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

And a failed state could lead to an exodus of Cubans looking for refuge in the United States.

“If history is any indication, there would be mass migration, people would attempt to flee,” said Jeffrey DeLaurentis, the former charge d’affaires at the U.S. embassy in Cuba during the Obama and first Trump administrations. “All we have to do is look at the island over the last three or four years.”

That concern has been “an argument against bringing the state down in the absence of something to replace it, because where do the people go?” said Ricardo Zúñiga, one of the architects of the Obama administration’s efforts to reopen relations with Cuba.

President Donald Trump’s administration has indicated little appetite to welcome Cuban immigrants and was granted the go-ahead in May by the Supreme Court to deport those who entered the U.S. legally under “humanitarian parole” programs implemented during the Biden administration.

Elliott Abrams, a former special representative for Venezuela in the first Trump administration, urged the administration to set up a Cuba task force “right now” to “think about a Cuba after this 65-year-old regime falls,” including leadership, fuel needs, the assistance of international financial institutions and the status of its Army and police.

“They have no plan for Venezuela except relying on the current thugs. Cuba will be harder because the regime is older, and unlike Venezuela, Cuba did not have forty years of democracy, strong democratic political parties, and the living memory of freedom,” he said in an email.

Trump views the collapse of Cuba as a near certainty, saying Sunday that Cuban Americans “are going to be very happy” about the country failing, similar to the celebrations seen in Florida, Texas and elsewhere among Venezuelan Americans after Maduro’s capture.

“Venezuela has been propping up the Cuban government regime for years now and Cuba’s lost its sponsor,” said Simone Leeden, former deputy assistant secretary of Defense during Trump’s first term. “That’s the basis of the statement— Cuba is collapsing. There’s no financial benefactor anymore.”

But Trump’s team has not made public what happens next in Cuba and is still facing questions on how Venezuela will run under U.S. control.

“I’m not going to talk to you about what our future steps are going to be and our policies are going to be right now in this regard”, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Sunday on NBC News’ ‘Meet the Press, adding that the administration is “not big fans of the Cuban regime.”

When asked what the plan would be if Cuba were to fall, the White House referred to Trump’s comments on Sunday that he doesn’t “think we need any action.”

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said Trump “has many options at his disposal to continue to protect our homeland from illicit narcotics that kill tens of thousands of Americans every year,” repeating the response she gave to questions about possible regime change in Colombia.

But narcotics are not most experts’ chief concern. Lawrence Gumbiner, chargé d’affaires at the U.S. embassy in Cuba during the first Trump administration, warned it could become “messy” if there’s no military and security apparatus to support it.

“As the economy continues to decline, and if the administration’s tactic is to keep strangling harder and harder and harder, then I think you will see Cubans trying to do what they’ve done for decades, which is to get out when they can, by sea, by air, to Mexico, to Central America, to the United States anyway they can, just to have some kind of economic opportunity,” Gumbiner said.

In recent years, Cuba has managed to stave off total economic collapse despite crippling U.S. sanctions, but Maduro’s capture on Saturday and the effective U.S. control of Venezuela are expected to exacerbate growing shortages of electricity and basic consumer goods on the island.

The Cuban government has acknowledged additional shortages of electricity in recent days, but has also rejected suggestions that collapse is imminent. In an X post Tuesday, Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez Padilla accused Trump of “showing absolute ignorance about Cuba and repeating the agenda of lies of Cuban American politicians” in writing Havana’s political obituary.

Stateside, there’s also skepticism that Cuba will collapse. Though Cuba’s economy has stagnated, protest movements on the island previously have failed to force any political change in Havana and predictions about the imminent fall of the Cuban government are a feature of the regime’s nearly seven-decade long run.

“They’re screwed, but being bankrupt doesn’t mean they’re about to collapse,” said former Rep. Joe Garcia, a Cuban-American Democrat and former head of the Cuban American National Foundation.

Still, the lack of a defined plan is fodder for Trump critics who view it as symbolic of a presidency that has jumped from one interest to another.

“There’s no plan for Venezuela, let alone Cuba. There’s no end game. There’s no strategy,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), who sits on the Armed Services Committee. “Literally, they’re making it up as they go along, hour by hour. And the idea that Cuba is going to fall, I think, is beyond wishful thinking. It’s no thinking.”

Republican allies, though, leaned on the prominent role of Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, trusting he will be ready for next steps on Cuba.

“No one understands Cuba better than Secretary Rubio. They will not act until the time is right, and they will be prepared,” said former GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Florida.