Trump's overhaul

GOP insiders: Trump's overhaul won't succeed

Roughly a third of Republican respondents say the addition of Bannon and promotion of Conway will make things worse.

By Steven Shepard

Donald Trump says this week’s dramatic campaign overhaul will put his presidential bid on the right path, but GOP leaders in key battleground states aren’t buying it.

Fewer than a third of Republican members of The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 11 key battleground states — believe Trump’s reshuffling will move the campaign in the right direction. Just as many, 31 percent, say the installation of Breitbart News executive Stephen Bannon as campaign CEO and pollster Kellyanne Conway as campaign manager, represent a turn for the worse.

“There is no way to right this ship,” said one New Hampshire Republican — who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “Changes in top staff this late in the game are always a sign that the campaign and candidate recognize that they are lost. In this case, they have gone from bad to worse. Campaigns do not need ‘CEOs,’ and pollsters are not qualified to manage presidential efforts. He is in a constant cycle of moving from one set of ‘yes men’ to another.”

Nearly a half-dozen GOP insiders compared the changes to “rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic” — a reference to Trump’s significant deficit in the polls.

A Virginia Republican made a similar analogy: “You can keep moving people in and out of the car, but so long as the drunk guy is driving it while blindfolded, the ride probably isn't going to get any smoother.”

In fact, a slight plurality of Republicans, 37 percent, said they weren’t sure whether the changes would move the campaign in the right or wrong directions. For most of those insiders, Trump’s difficulties begin and end at the top.

“The problem was never the organization, or obvious lack thereof. The problem has always been Donald,” said an Iowa Republican. “He lost the election the day he descended down the escalator. There is no pivot, no second act, and no path to the presidency that runs down the road of racism and incendiary intolerance. He chose that road when he chose birtherism, and it's a one-way route to ruin. How fitting that that final word associated with Trump, after all, will be ‘loser.’ ”

“No matter who he hires,” a Florida Republican added, “his Inner Voice runs the show.”

But some Republican insiders praised the moves. A North Carolina Republican called Bannon “a bomb-thrower” but with “good aim.”

“Installing a guy at the top whose motto is ‘Honey Badger don't give a f---’ won’t do much to reassure donors and establishment Republicans,” the Republican said. “But we’re way past that now. [Bannon] is an unconventional pick — but for this most unconventional of candidates, it makes sense.”

Others were more critical of Bannon — but did applaud Conway’s appointment.

“Maybe having [Conway] on the plane sitting next to him and being the last person he talks to will keep him a little better on message,” a Virginia Republican said. “If she is a calming influence it could help. The Breitbart guy is just a joke.”

But ultimately, insiders said the moves — and the apparent sidelining of campaign chairman Paul Manafort — represents a candidate intent on doing things his way, with little hope of success.

“Paul Manafort was trying to run a conventional campaign with an unconventional candidate,” said an Ohio Republican. “At this point, it’s too late to do much to fix their non-existent ground game. His only hope is to have a team that lets Trump be Trump since that is the only thing that has worked for him. And he’s still almost certain to lose in spectacular fashion.”

Democratic insiders are split on whether to shut down the Clinton Foundation.

The not-for-profit Clinton Foundation announced Thursday that it won’t accept corporate or foreign donations if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency — but don’t expect the foundation to stop dogging Clinton’s campaign.

Two-thirds of insiders in the swing states said this week — prior to the foundation’s announcement — that Clinton and her family should suspend fundraising for the foundation until after the election, and they should shut the foundation down altogether if she wins.

But there’s a clear partisan divide. Democrats are divided on whether Clinton should suspend the foundation’s activities. A narrow majority, 56 percent, point to the foundation’s charitable works around the world as reason why it should continue to accept donations even as Clinton runs for president. But for the other Democratic insiders, the foundation is a needless distraction that outweighs its good works.

For Republicans, on the other hand, it’s a “no-brainer.” They see the foundation as a “corrupt,” “pay-to-play” scheme that enriched the Clintons when she served as secretary of state.

Questions about the foundation took on new resonance over the past week after newly released emails revealed communication between the foundation and the State Department during Clinton’s tenure as secretary. But criticism of Clinton’s response to the story didn’t just come from Republican officials and conservative groups — the reliably liberal Boston Globe editorial board this week called the foundation “clearly a liability” for Clinton’s campaign and said it should stop accepting donations until the election and shut down if Clinton wins.

Democrats almost uniformly praised the foundation’s charity work — but some worried that voters would see a scandal, not the overseas projects.

“The Clinton Foundation does very important work in the developing world, and while it is ridiculous how the GOP is attacking it, from a purely optics standpoint, shut it down and just finish the campaign,” said a Florida Democrat who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously.

“Perception is everything in politics,” added a Nevada Democrat. “Might as well not create any potential liabilities that can hurt your chances.”

But for the slim majority of Democrats who want to see the foundation stay up and running, the good the foundation does outweighs any potential drag on Clinton’s candidacy.

“I understand the conflict-of-interest concerns, and the Clintons haven't done a great job of allaying anyone's fears along those lines,” said a Colorado Democrat. “But it’s a huge organization with a lot of big initiatives — seems like there should be a way of keeping it going with new leadership and some kind of significant ‘Chinese Wall’ arrangement.”

“The Clinton Foundation has changed the lives to the good of millions through their remarkable work,” added a New Hampshire Democrat. “It is disgusting how it has been dragged through the mud by vicious Republicans and the clueless media.”

Republicans, on the other hand, were almost unanimous: 93 percent said the foundation shouldn’t accept donations for the rest of the campaign.

“There is too much room for conflict [of interest],” said a Michigan Republican. “And Hillary has no margin for error on the trust issue.”

Added an Iowa Republican: “If elected, the appearance of impropriety would be too much to ignore and a constant source of Republican griping. For the good of the country, she should shelve it for her term. She’ll make those millions back once she’s left office.”

But there’s not much GOP optimism that Trump will make the most of any opportunities the foundation affords to score points against Clinton.

“This is one of Trump's biggest flaws,” said a Michigan Republican. “He has missed so many opportunities to hammer home the questionable dealings of the Clinton Foundation, as well as Clinton's home brew email server, by failing to run a disciplined, professional campaign. Instead, we hear about Paul Manafort’s Ukraine ties.”