Independent bid

Insiders: Trump independent bid would ruin GOP chances

A third-party run would make Trump ‘Ross Perot on steroids,’ a Republican says.

By Steven Shepard

If Donald Trump runs for president as an independent, the GOP will lose the White House.

That’s according to a majority of Republicans in The POLITICO Caucus, our weekly bipartisan survey of the top strategists, activists and operatives in the four early-nominating states: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

Roughly 4 in 5 GOP insiders, 79 percent, said it would be either “impossible” or “very difficult” for the Republican nominee to win the general election if Trump launches a third-party bid, based on electoral math and a general inability for the party’s nominee to focus on the Democratic competitor.

“Impossible is a strong but appropriate word,” said a New Hampshire Republican.

The real-estate developer and celebrity continues to hint at an independent bid — using the possibility as leverage against a party that is equal parts threatened and confounded at his ascendance.

“Trump already dominates the headlines,” said a Nevada GOP insider. “A run as an independent would be the main news story for six months. The Republican nominee would be forced to constantly respond to the makeup of the race and miss any opportunity to deliver their message to the American people.”

Others added that basic arithmetic — the relatively even political divisions in the country and an electoral map arguably tilted toward Democrats — makes it difficult for Republicans if even a remotely credible conservative independent candidate qualified in the key Electoral College states. A number of insiders pointed to 1992 — and, to a lesser extent, 1996 — when Bill Clinton won the presidency without capturing a majority of the vote because of a self-funding independent candidate. One Iowa insider called Trump, “Ross Perot on steroids.”

“The current electoral path to the White House for the eventual Republican is so narrow that any third- or no-party candidate with the ability to peel away conservative and anti-Washington independent voters spells certain defeat for any Republican nominee,” another Iowa Republican said. “There is no question Trump fits those criteria. If he plays the ‘I wasn't treated fairly’ card, he could easily go down the independent road (and ignore that such a road ends in defeat). The operative question is, will his short term need to feed his ego with an independent bid outweigh his long-term need to not end up, in his words, ‘a real loser?’”

Democratic insiders, unsurprisingly, agreed with the GOP assessment: 84 percent called a GOP win “impossible” or “very difficult” with Trump on the ballot as an independent.

“I would never say anything is ‘impossible,’” said a South Carolina Democrat, “but it would be Perot 1992 all over again. I'm starting to believe the Clintons are outsmarting us all!”

Some Republicans cautioned that just because a Trump independent candidacy would doom the GOP doesn’t mean that it’s likely. The deck is so stacked against a candidate not associated with one of the two major parties, they argued, that Trump would find mounting such a campaign to be a fool’s errand.

“We're in a cycle that feels a bit like Alice in Wonderland. It's hard to predict anything these days,” an Iowa Republican said. “But an independent Trump candidacy is highly unlikely, even given the egomaniacal approach he takes to politics. If we are to believe that he knows a bad deal when he sees one, he can't possibly see an independent bid as a real way to get to the White House. There is just no path to an Electoral College win for an independent candidate.”

Handicapping next week’s debates

Both Republicans and Democrats are holding televised debates next week — Republicans on Tuesday in Las Vegas, and Democrats a week from Saturday in Goffstown, New Hampshire.

Asked which candidate has the most to lose in their party’s forum, Republicans were splintered: 23 percent said Trump, with many of those predicting that he will face fire over his recent proposal to stop all Muslim immigration.

“The front-runner always has the most to lose, particularly in this case after his remarks about Muslims and the reactions from the other candidates,” said another Nevada Republican. “Expect some fireworks on the stage on that subject.”

Marco Rubio was an equally popular choice, with some Republicans suggesting the Florida senator’s strong performances thus far in the first four debates make maintaining that level difficult.

“That's the pesky thing about exceeding expectations,” a South Carolina insider said. “You're expected to keep it up.”

Jeb Bush also has a lot riding on his performance, with one New Hampshire Republican calling it “do or die time,” and another who said, “He's running out of time to excite voters.”

Others suggested Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s recent rise, especially in Iowa, would make him a popular target of the other candidates and put him on the defensive.

“Cruz is the non-Trump leader right now, which sets him up to be the attackee,” said an Iowa Republican. “Given that Rubio and Bush supporters have started running attack ads, they may just follow up … with the same charges being made in the ads.”

For Ben Carson, some insiders said, the debate could be his last chance to reverse the negative momentum that has caused his poll numbers to drop over the past month. “Unless Carson can give a commanding performance,” said a South Carolina Republican, “he is unlikely to stop his downward spiral.”

Among Democrats, a 52-percent majority said Bernie Sanders had the most to lose at the next debate, more than either Hillary Clinton or Martin O’Malley — especially with the rise of national security issues after terrorist attacks in Paris and California.

“As security concerns continue to rise, Bernie's lack of international acumen and experience will become ever more obvious, especially on the same stage with Secretary Clinton,” said a New Hampshire Democrat.

“Hillary thinks she owns this discussion, [and] he has to show she does not,” another New Hampshire insider said.

A third of the insiders pointed to Clinton, however, stressing the pressure is always on the front-runner.

“Expectations are always highest for candidates with big leads, and it's difficult to equal those expectations in a debate,” said a South Carolina Democrat.

The remaining insiders picked O’Malley, who was at only 1 percent in the most recent CNN/WMUR poll in New Hampshire. “It's time to start putting up some points for a national audience,” said a New Hampshire Democrat. “Think he's done great at times in early-state settings, but it's now or never time in O'Malleyland.”

Trump in perspective

With all the comparisons this week after Trump’s Muslim immigration proposal, we asked insiders from both parties to which historical figure they would compare the billionaire candidate?

Roughly a dozen of the more than 115 insiders who replied to this question picked Adolf Hitler — almost all of them Democrats. Many Republicans chose P.T. Barnum. Other popular answers included Perot, former Alabama Gov. George Wallace, former Sen. Joe McCarthy (R-Wis.) — and, in Nevada, former Sen. Pat McCarran.

One respondent suggested future candidates would be compared to Trump.

“He has changed the modern campaign,” said a Nevada Republican. “Eight years from now people will be looking at the crop of presidential candidates asking, ‘Who is the next Donald Trump?’”