Policy blunders

Insiders: Foreign policy blunders threaten Carson candidacy

Republicans view Ted Cruz as the likeliest choice of social conservatives.

By Steven Shepard

The emergence of foreign policy as a central issue in the presidential campaign poses the greatest threat to Ben Carson -- no other GOP candidate has as much vulnerability on the issue.

That’s according to the overwhelming majority of Republican insiders surveyed this week by The POLITICO Caucus — a bipartisan panel of the top strategists, operatives and activists in the four early nominating states: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

Last week’s terror attacks in Paris — combined with a number of missteps on international issues — imperil Carson’s status as a leading candidate, according to the insiders, who said the retired pediatric neurosurgeon has failed to articulate coherent foreign policy or shown command of the issues. A resounding 71 percent of Republicans said Carson was the most vulnerable among the 14 GOP hopefuls on foreign policy — far more than any other candidate.

“He clearly has no idea what he’s talking about,” said one South Carolina Republican.

“Ben Carson's complete ineptitude makes you long for the days of ‘Uz-beki-beki-stan-stan,’” added an Iowa Republican, referring to a disastrous Herman Cain interview four years ago.

Foreign affairs were never Carson’s strength but the issue took on new resonance after the terror attacks in Paris last week. Since then, Carson has faltered in interviews, and a New York Times story earlier this week quoted an 83-year-old Carson adviser who described the candidate as needing intense coaching “to make him smart.”

“Carson is so clueless,” said an Iowa GOP insider. “He thinks the Kurds are a special kind of Wisconsin cheese.”

Registering a distant second on this question was Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 9 percent. His vulnerability, however, was viewed as a reflection of his policy positions: Insiders said GOP primary voters will reject Paul’s non-interventionist approach as the Islamic State continues to commit acts of terror and barbarism around the world.

Donald Trump placed third, at 7 percent, despite his own lack of experience and struggles in interviews about foreign policy. But multiple insiders said Carson’s discomfort with the issues was actually making Trump look better by comparison.

“Even if Trump's message comes off as abrasive on foreign policy, he seems to have a better grasp,” said a Nevada Republican. “Carson does not seem coherent on foreign policy at all.”

On the Democratic side, the majority of insiders, 62 percent, said Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has made income inequality the centerpiece of his campaign, was the most vulnerable on foreign policy.

“It really seems like an afterthought to him,” said a South Carolina Democrat. “He's so passionate about working class issues, and then on foreign policy, it's like 'Yadda, yadda, yadda.’”

A quarter of Democratic insiders said former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley was at risk on the issue because of his lack of foreign policy experience. But a handful of Democrats, just over 10 percent, said any international crises could also take a toll on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

“Clinton was in a position of authority on foreign policy, which leaves her exposed to all kinds of criticism, warranted or not,” said one South Carolina insider.

Still, other Democratic insiders said an extended foreign policy debate would benefit Clinton — especially when compared with the more dovish Sanders.

"Sanders is just not comfortable talking to a fearful voter." Everything that has happened post-Paris exemplifies the ceiling on his base of support, said an Iowa Democrat. "Clinton inhabits a unique space where she can speak cogently about the dangers in this world, but also optimistically, which will bring in base Democratic voters."

Ted Cruz is the likeliest choice of social conservatives.

Carson has been running strong among social conservatives, but as the candidates descend on Iowa for the Family Leader Presidential Family Forum this weekend, it’s Texas Sen. Ted Cruz who’s best positioned among those voters, insiders say.

If social conservative groups were to unite behind one candidate, a majority of Republican insiders – 64 percent – said that candidate would be Cruz. Carson was the third choice, at only 7 percent.

“While Carson is the flavor of the month, eventually evangelical leaders will unite behind a candidate who can win,” said a South Carolina Republican. “Relationships are critical with evangelicals. Cruz has invested the most for the longest period of time, and ultimately stands the most to gain.”

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio — whose advisers hope can unite establishment Republicans and insurgent conservatives — was the second choice, at just over 15 percent.

“He talks about social issues in a way that doesn't spook people,” said a Nevada Republican. “Social conservatives are tired of getting their message delivered by an inadequate messenger.”

The Family Leader’s summit kicks off Friday in Des Moines. Seven of the candidates are planning to attend: Carson, Cruz, Paul, Rubio, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

While Carson lagged far behind on this question, one Iowa Republican wondered whether the exit of Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal — who campaigned extensively in the state but failed to gain traction — would boost Carson.

“Carson was the biggest beneficiary in Iowa of [Jindal] dropping out. Cruz is doing plenty well with the social conservative crowd, but as one evangelical voter told me today — there is just something off about him.”